瑞达期货沪锡产业日报-20260318

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The supply of tin ore is expected to increase as Myanmar's production resumes and the rainy season ends, with a slight rebound in tin ore processing fees and signs of relief in the tight supply situation. Refined tin production will gradually recover after the Chinese New Year, but low raw material inventories in most enterprises and losses in some external mining capacities will affect refined tin output. Indonesia's tin exports are increasing, and the import window is gradually opening, increasing import pressure. The development of the AI field will drive a significant increase in solder demand. Recently, tin prices have declined, and holders have a strong sentiment to hold prices, with a spot premium of over 2,500 yuan/ton. It is expected that Shanghai tin will undergo a weak adjustment, and attention should be paid to the range of 355,000 - 360,000 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for Shanghai tin is 370,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5,110 yuan; the closing price of the May - June contract for Shanghai tin is 220 yuan/ton, an increase of 350 yuan. The price of LME 3 - month tin is 46,850 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 960 US dollars. The main contract position of Shanghai tin is 30,797 lots, a decrease of 903 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures for Shanghai tin is - 9,623 lots, a decrease of 331 lots. The total inventory of LME tin is 8,745 tons, an increase of 30 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin is 12,514 tons, an increase of 851 tons. The LME tin cancelled warrants are 460 tons, a decrease of 60 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts of tin are 11,312 tons, a decrease of 361 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 369,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10,850 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 368,260 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12,820 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai tin main contract is - 500 yuan/ton, an increase of 4,060 yuan. The LME tin premium (0 - 3) is - 203 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 112 US dollars [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 17,600 tons, an increase of 2,500 tons. The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 353,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,050 yuan; the processing fee is 16,000 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of 60% tin concentrate is 357,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,050 yuan; the processing fee is 12,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, a decrease of 1,600 tons. The monthly import volume of refined tin is 2,239.1 tons, an increase of 323.25 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bars in Gejiu is 234,540 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6,850 yuan. The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 1,528,700 tons, an increase of 138,700 tons. The monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 142,900 tons, a decrease of 45,000 tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - In 2026, China will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy, focusing on seven aspects: supporting the construction of a strong domestic market, cultivating and expanding new driving forces, achieving high - level scientific and technological self - reliance, improving people's livelihood, promoting new - type urbanization and regional coordinated development, accelerating the comprehensive green transformation, and strengthening fiscal scientific management. The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council emphasizes focusing on "two important" and "two new" areas, planning and implementing a number of major projects and landmark projects in advance, and promoting the digital and intelligent transformation of central enterprises. From January to February, the cumulative social electricity consumption was 1,654.6 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 6.1%, with significant growth in the electricity consumption of the charging and swapping service industry and the Internet data service industry. The "Fed Whisperer" indicates that the Fed tends to remain silent this week, and recent shocks are two - way factors. US President Trump requests to postpone the China - US summit due to the Iran war [3].