苹果产业日报-20260318

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The apple market is expected to continue the polarization trend in the short term, with high - quality goods remaining stable and firm, and ordinary goods remaining stable but weak. The apple market maintains a pattern of being stronger in the west and stable in the east, and high - quality goods are in short supply. The inventory removal speed has accelerated. It is expected that the apple futures price will still have room to rise after a short - term adjustment [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the apple futures main contract is 10,121 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 3. The main contract's open interest is 91,016 lots, with an increase of 802. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders are 4,858 lots, with an increase of 1,713 [2]. Spot Market - The spot price of apples in Gansu Jingning (paper - bagged, above 75) is 5.25 yuan/jin; in Shandong Yiyuan (paper - bagged, above 75) is 2.2 yuan/jin; in Shaanxi Luochuan (paper - bagged, above 70 semi - second - grade fruit farmer's goods) is 4.3 yuan/jin; in Shandong Yantai Qixia (paper - bagged, above 80 first - grade goods) is 4 yuan/jin [2]. Upstream Situation - The national apple output is 5,128.51 million tons. The apple orchard area in the whole country is 1,955.77 thousand hectares, with a decrease of 19.58. The fruit wholesale price of apples is 9.37 yuan/kg, and the average wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.52 yuan/kg, with an increase of 0.15. The apple storage capacity ratio in Shaanxi is 0.39, with a decrease of 0.03; in Shandong is 0.4, with a decrease of 0.02. The total national apple cold - storage inventory is 499.72 million tons, with a decrease of 27.81 million tons. The monthly export volume of apples is 160,000 tons, with an increase of 40,000 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The year - on - year monthly export amount of apples increased by 14.5%. The monthly import amount of fresh and dried fruits and nuts is 1,775,355 million US dollars, with an increase of 657,409 million US dollars. The weekly profit of storage merchants for first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apples is 0.35 yuan/jin, with an increase of 0.05 [2]. Downstream Situation - The fruit wholesale price of pears is 6.64 yuan/kg, with a decrease of 0.03; bananas is 6.57 yuan/kg, with an increase of 0.05; watermelons is 6.51 yuan/kg, with a decrease of 0.24. The average daily early - morning arrival vehicle volume at the Guangdong Jiangmen wholesale market is 12.8 vehicles, with an increase of 3.2; at the Guangdong Xiaqiao wholesale market is 18.4 vehicles, with an increase of 6; at the Guangdong Chalong wholesale market is 24 vehicles, with an increase of 5.6 [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples is 35.79%, with an increase of 0.79; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for apples is 35.79%, with an increase of 0.79 [2]. Suggestions - Pay attention to the cold - storage inventory data on Thursday [2]