瑞达期货铁矿石产业链日报-20260318

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - On Wednesday, the I2605 contract reduced positions and consolidated. The macro - situation shows that US President Trump expressed dissatisfaction with NATO, and considered whether the US should withdraw from NATO. In terms of supply and demand, the iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil increased, the arrivals decreased, and domestic port inventories continued to rise. There is a shortage of mainstream high - grade resources at ports, while the tradable resources of other mainstream varieties are relatively sufficient. Most steel mills have gradually resumed production, increasing the demand for iron ore. Recently, the iron ore price has continued to rise due to positive factors, but now the futures price faces resistance around 820. With the high - level correction of international oil prices weakening the support, the short - term market may fluctuate. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2605 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are above the 0 - axis with the green bar expanding. It is expected that the short - term price may fluctuate between 800 - 820. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract is 811.00 yuan/ton, down 5.50 yuan; the position volume is 455,521 hands, down 6,207 hands. The 5 - 9 contract spread is 32 yuan/ton, up 1.00 yuan. The net position of the top 20 in the I contract is - 23,032 hands, up 1,154 hands. The Dalian Commodity Exchange warehouse receipt is 3,400.00 hands, unchanged. The Singapore iron ore main contract's quote at 15:00 is 107.5 US dollars/ton, down 1.30 US dollars. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 61.5% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port is 854 yuan/dry ton, up 6 yuan; the price of 60.5% Mac fine ore is 840 yuan/dry ton, up 6 yuan. The price of 56.5% Super Special fine ore at Jingtang Port is 756 yuan/dry ton, up 4 yuan. The basis of the I main contract (Mac fine dry ton - main contract) is 29 yuan, up 12 yuan. The 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) is 110.00 US dollars/ton, up 1.20 US dollars. The ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.5% Mac fine ore at Qingdao Port is 3.15, down 0.02. The estimated import cost is 872 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan. [2] 3.3 Industry Situation - The global iron ore shipment volume (weekly) is 3,048.80 tons, up 151.00 tons; the arrival volume at 47 ports in China (weekly) is 2,317.00 tons, down 380.50 tons. The iron ore inventory at 47 ports (weekly) is 17,947.32 tons, up 52.49 tons; the iron ore inventory of sample steel mills (weekly) is 8,929.10 tons, down 82.47 tons. The iron ore import volume (monthly) is 9,764.00 tons, down 1,475.00 tons. The available days of iron ore (weekly) are 21.00 days, unchanged. The daily output of 266 mines (weekly) is 39.81 tons, up 1.21 tons; the operating rate of 266 mines (weekly) is 62.49%, up 1.59%. The iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines (weekly) is 47.68 tons, down 2.49 tons. The BDI index is 2,024.00, down 14.00. The iron ore freight rate from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao is 29.90 US dollars/ton, up 0.10 US dollars; the freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao is 12.725 US dollars/ton, down 0.75 US dollars. [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 78.36%, up 0.67%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 82.90%, down 2.40%. The domestic crude steel output (monthly) is 6,818 tons, down 169 tons. [2] 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) is 15.67%, up 0.37%; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) is 16.18%, up 0.06%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options (daily) is 18.81%, down 1.42%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options (daily) is 19.97%, down 1.57%. [2] 3.6 Industry News - From March 9th to March 15th, 2026, the global iron ore shipment volume was 3,048.8 tons, a week - on - week increase of 151.0 tons. The total iron ore shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 2,464.4 tons, a week - on - week increase of 122.3 tons. The Australian shipment volume was 1,875.3 tons, a week - on - week increase of 122.1 tons, and the volume shipped from Australia to China was 1,587.2 tons, a week - on - week increase of 121.3 tons. The Brazilian shipment volume was 589.2 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.2 tons. - From March 9th to March 15th, 2026, the arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2,317.0 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 380.5 tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports in China was 2,215.0 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 394.9 tons; the arrival volume at six northern ports was 1,230.2 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 234.3 tons. [2]