建信期货棉花日报-20260319

1. Reported Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The 2026/27 cotton supply-demand pattern is tight, supporting the medium- and long-term price trend. Short-term Zhengzhou cotton has a technical correction with reduced positions. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of buying on dips [8] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Review: Zhengzhou cotton decreased in price with reduced positions. The latest 328-grade cotton price index was 16,897 yuan/ton, up 76 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The domestic cotton yarn market's trading atmosphere was stable and improving, with some manufacturers slightly raising their quotes. The cotton fabric market was generally stable, but the recovery of export orders was still not as expected [7][8] - International Market: CONAB's March 2026 forecast for the 2025/26 Brazilian cotton season shows a total output of 3.795 million tons, a 0.8 - million - ton decrease from the previous forecast. The planting area was reduced to 2.0136 million hectares, while the yield per mu remained stable at 125.6 kg. Exports increased by 180,000 tons year - on - year, and the ending inventory decreased by 190,000 tons year - on - year [8] - Domestic Market: After the release of 300,000 tons of sliding - scale tariff processing trade quotas, the price gap between domestic and foreign cotton narrowed. From January to February 2026, China imported 380,000 tons of cotton, a 41% year - on - year increase. The downstream finished product inventory decreased, and the operating rate rebounded significantly. The demand side was still supported during the peak season [8] - Operation Suggestion: Pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips [8] 3.2 Industry News - In February 2026, China imported 170,000 tons of cotton, a 50,000 - ton (44.1%) year - on - year increase. From January to February 2026, the cumulative cotton imports were 380,000 tons, an 110,000 - ton (41%) year - on - year increase. In February 2026, China imported 130,000 tons of cotton yarn, a 20,000 - ton (13.1%) year - on - year increase. From January to February 2026, the cumulative cotton yarn imports were 290,000 tons, an 80,000 - ton (40.2%) year - on - year increase [9] 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including the China Cotton Price Index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, price spreads between different cotton futures contracts, cotton commercial and industrial inventories, warehouse receipt volume, and exchange rates such as the US dollar against the Chinese yuan and the Indian rupee [16][17][18]