建信期货油脂日报-20260319

Report Information - Report Date: March 19, 2026 [2] - Industry: Oil and Fat [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yulan Lan, Zhenlei Lin, Haifeng Wang, Chenliang Hong, Youran Liu [3] Core Viewpoint - The upward momentum of the oil and fat sector has temporarily paused, with all three major oils declining during the day, led by palm oil. Trump's postponement of his visit to China due to the Iran war has dampened market sentiment. However, geopolitical risks have restricted the decline of palm oil. Palm oil exports are strong, and Indonesia's consideration of a new tax on commodities may lead to supply tightening. Although palm oil on the Dalian Commodity Exchange has adjusted downward under pressure, it still has the opportunity to strengthen in the medium to long term. The quarantine incident may delay the arrival of Brazilian soybeans in China, and domestic soybean oil inventories are continuously decreasing, with the basis quote likely to rise. Attention should be paid to the progress of the US biodiesel policy and the trend of international crude oil prices [8] Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operational Suggestions - Price Quotes: Dongguan's third - grade rapeseed oil trader quotes: Third - grade rapeseed oil is 05 + 120 (5 - 6), and first - grade rapeseed oil is 05 + 860. East China's soybean oil basis quotes: First - grade soybean oil, spot price is Y05 + 270, fixed price is 8870; far - month prices are Y2605 + 240 for April - May, Y2605 + 150 for May - July, Y2605 + 130 for June - September; third - grade soybean oil is 05 + 200; degummed soybean oil is 05 + 100 for March - May. Dongguan's palm oil trader quotes are stable with a slight decline: Guangzhou Yihai's 18 - degree palm oil is 05 + 150; Dongguan's 24 - degree palm oil from various factories is 05 - 40, national standard 24 - degree is 05 + 20, 52 - degree is 05 - 350, and 33 - degree is 05 + 20 [7] - Market Analysis: The oil and fat sector has seen a temporary halt in its upward trend, with palm oil leading the decline. Geopolitical risks and export data, as well as potential supply - tightening policies, affect the market. The quarantine incident in Brazil may impact soybean oil inventories and basis quotes [8] 2. Industry News - Palm Oil Exports: According to SGS, Malaysia's palm oil exports from March 1 - 15, 2026, were 443,812 tons, a 12.7% increase compared to 393,853 tons in the same period in February. Exports to China were 39,000 tons, an increase of 1,700 tons compared to the previous month [9] - Indian Oil Imports: In February, India's palm oil imports increased by about 11% to 847,689 tons, soybean oil imports increased by 7% to 299,046 tons, and sunflower oil imports decreased by about 45% to 145,308 tons [9] 3. Data Overview - Price and Basis Charts: There are charts showing the spot prices of East China's third - grade rapeseed oil, fourth - grade soybean oil, and South China's 24 - degree palm oil, as well as the basis changes of soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and palm oil, and the price spreads of palm oil futures contracts (P1 - 5, P5 - 9, P9 - 1), and the exchange rates of the US dollar against the Malaysian ringgit and the Chinese yuan [11][15][19][25][29][33]