大越期货油脂早报-20260319

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The overall trend of oil prices is expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic oil supply is stable. Sino-US relations are tense, which puts pressure on the price of new US soybeans due to受挫 exports. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and the demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The soaring international crude oil price drives up the oil price. The domestic oil fundamentals are neutral, and the import inventory is stable [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - Soybean Oil - Fundamentals: The MPOB report shows that in December, the production of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 5.46% month-on-month to 1.8298 million tons, exports increased by 8.55% month-on-month to 1.3165 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory increased by 7.59% month-on-month to 3.0506 million tons. The report is slightly bearish, and the inventory data exceeded expectations. Currently, the shipping survey agency shows that the export data of Malaysian palm oil in January has increased by 29% month-on-month. Entering the production - reduction season, the supply pressure of palm oil decreases. It is neutral [2] - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8860, with a basis of 320, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. It is bullish [2] - Inventory: On January 9th, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.02 million tons, compared with 1.08 million tons previously, a month - on - month decrease of 60,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 14.7%. It is bearish [2] - Market: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward. It is bullish [2] - Main Position: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract decreased. It is bullish [2] - Expectation: The soybean oil Y2605 is expected to oscillate in the range of 8400 - 8800 [2] Daily View - Palm Oil - Fundamentals: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is slightly bearish, and the inventory data exceeded expectations. The export data in January has increased by 29% month-on-month, and the supply pressure will decrease in the production - reduction season. It is neutral [3] - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 9860, with a basis of 168, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price. It is bearish [3] - Inventory: On January 9th, the port inventory of palm oil was 736,000 tons, compared with 733,800 tons previously, a month - on - month increase of 2200 tons and a year - on - year increase of 46%. It is bearish [3] - Market: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward. It is bullish [3] - Main Position: The short positions of the main palm oil contract increased. It is bearish [3] - Expectation: The palm oil P2605 is expected to oscillate in the range of 9600 - 10000 [3] Daily View - Rapeseed Oil - Fundamentals: The MPOB report is slightly bearish, and the inventory data exceeded expectations. The export data in January has increased by 29% month-on-month, and the supply pressure will decrease in the production - reduction season. It is neutral [4] - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10320, with a basis of 540, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. It is bullish [4] - Inventory: On January 9th, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 250,000 tons, compared with 270,000 tons previously, a month - on - month decrease of 20,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 44%. It is bullish [4] - Market: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward. It is bullish [4] - Main Position: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract increased. It is bearish [4] - Expectation: The rapeseed oil OI2605 is expected to oscillate in the range of 9700 - 10100 [4] Recent Bullish and Bearish Analysis - Bullish Factors: The US soybean stock - to - sales ratio remains around 4%, indicating a tight supply. There is a tremor season for palm oil [5] - Bearish Factors: The oil prices are at a relatively high historical level, and the domestic oil inventory has been continuously accumulating. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils is high [5] - Main Logic: The global oil fundamentals are relatively loose [5]