建信期货镍日报-20260319

Report Information - Report Title: Nickel Daily Report [1] - Date: March 19, 2026 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - On the 18th, nickel prices continued to weaken and adjust following the sector. Due to the ongoing Middle East situation, rising oil and gas prices increased inflationary pressures, leading to a downward adjustment in the Fed's interest rate cut expectations. The strong US dollar index pressured base metals. Spot prices adjusted slightly following the market, with traders mostly making normal deliveries and the market showing decent activity. Indonesia's policy remained tight. Although the government has clearly stated that it will start accepting RKAB revision applications in July, with the potential to increase the 2026 quota by up to 30%, it cannot alleviate the overall shortage of nickel ore resources, especially in the second quarter. The average price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron dropped slightly by 1 to 1092.5 yuan per nickel point, while battery - grade nickel sulfate remained unchanged at 32,095 yuan per ton. It is expected that nickel prices will continue to operate under the game between Indonesia's policy support and the ongoing Middle East situation. Future attention should be paid to changes in Indonesia's industrial policy. In the short term, with a mix of long and short factors, a range - bound approach is maintained for now [8] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operational Suggestions - Nickel prices on the 18th followed the sector in weak adjustment. The Middle East situation increased inflation, the strong US dollar pressured base metals, and spot prices adjusted slightly. The Indonesian policy is tight, and the short - term nickel ore shortage remains. The price of high - nickel pig iron dropped slightly, and battery - grade nickel sulfate was flat. Nickel prices will operate under the game of two factors, and a range - bound approach is taken in the short term [8] 2. Industry News - On March 16, GEM responded on the investor interaction platform regarding the landslide accident at the tailings dam in Indonesia. In February 2026, an accident occurred at the temporary slag storage area of the Qingmeibang Park in Indonesia due to a landslide caused by heavy rain. The company has completed the rectification as required, and there are no issues such as license revocation. The rectification only involves part of the Qingmeibang HPAL production capacity, with a relatively small impact on the company's overall operations. The company is accelerating the completion and acceptance of the permanent slag storage to fully release production capacity. Since 2026, the Indonesian park has produced nearly 20,000 tons of nickel metal, a year - on - year increase of about 10%, and nearly 1,800 tons of cobalt metal, a year - on - year increase of about 20%, laying a foundation for the company's 2026 business goals [9] - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that from January to February, the national economy started strongly and had a good beginning. The added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 6.3% year - on - year, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 2.8%, and real estate development investment decreased by 11.1% year - on - year. Affected by the conflict in the Middle East, shipping in the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, and the global sulfur supply faces a shortage risk. About 75% of Indonesia's sulfur is imported from the Middle East, and sulfur is a key raw material for producing sulfuric acid, which is used for nickel and copper ore leaching. Analysts point out that the sulfur inventory of HPAL nickel plants in Indonesia can usually only last for 1 - 2 months. If the transportation disruption continues, some plants may be forced to cut production as early as next month. Meanwhile, the sulfur price was close to $500 per ton before the conflict and has further increased by about 10 - 15% recently. The supply shortage may also affect African copper mines and the global fertilizer industry, and all parties will compete for alternative supplies. Some mining companies with smelters that can produce sulfuric acid themselves are less affected, while producers relying on purchased sulfur may face greater cost and supply pressures. Overall, if the Middle East shipping interruption lasts for more than a few weeks, relevant metal production and demand may be forced to slow down [10]