LPG早报-20260319

Report Overview - The report is an LPG morning report from the Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center on March 19, 2026, providing daily and weekly market data and analysis of LPG [4] Daily Market Data - Price Data: On March 18, 2026, the prices of South China LPG, East China LPG, and Shandong LPG were 6220, 6049, and 5630 respectively; the CFR South China price of propane was 1023; the CP forecast contract price was 589; the price of Shandong ether - post carbon four was 5510; the price of Shandong alkylated oil was 8700; the paper import profit was -1737; the main basis was 64. The daily changes were 20, 5, 100, 45, 2, 90, 200, -324, 183 respectively [4] - Contract Data: On March 18, the PG2604 contract closed at 5766 (-61) at 3 pm, with a 4 - 5 month spread of 96 (-27) and 1800 (+0) warrants. The night - session closed at 6268 (+509), with a 4 - 5 month spread of 73 (-23). The price of Shandong civil LPG was 5600 (+80) [4] Weekly Viewpoint - Market Trends: Last week, the futures market fluctuated greatly with the center moving up, mainly following the oil price. The basis fluctuated sharply, and the latest was -321 (+346), the 4 - 5 month spread was 132 (+5). The number of warrants was 3108 lots (-1544). The cheapest deliverable was Shandong ether - post carbon four at 5430 (+280). The price of Shandong civil LPG was 5550 (+610), and that of East China civil LPG was 6159 (+1178) [4] - Related Spreads and Ratios: The FEI month spread was 84 US dollars (+27), the oil - gas price ratio oscillated and declined. The internal and external PG - FEI c1 was 52.4 (-45). The South China CP propane arrival discount was 402 (+30), and the FOB discounts of AFEI, US Gulf, and Middle East propane were 104.75 (+12.75), 200.6 (+41.7), and 0 (+0) respectively. The FEI - MOPJ spread was -126 (-59) [4] - Profit and Inventory: The PDH spot profit strengthened significantly. The port inventory ratio was 35.05% (-5.5 pct), the external release of LPG sample enterprises was 54.4 tons (-1.8), and the PDH operating rate was 63.23 (-1.7 pct) [4] - Future Outlook: The key lies in when the Strait of Hormuz will resume traffic. Short - term spot quotes mainly depend on the international oil price. There will probably be a shortage of goods in China in April, which is expected to be more serious in East and South China than in Shandong. The short - term futures market may still follow the oil price, and the month spread will run strongly [4]