《能源化工》日报-20260319

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment rating information provided in the reports Group 2: Core Views Polyolefins - The current market is in a fierce game between strong cost support, supply contraction expectations, and weak actual demand. It is expected that prices will maintain a wide - range high - level shock. If the geopolitical tension continues, under the combination of "domestic production cuts, reduced imports, and increased exports", and the conflict tends to be long - term, the domestic start - up rate may decline further after April, and the 05 contract is expected to have a significant upward market [1]. Rubber - The Sino - US conflict remains stalemate, and the crude oil price fluctuates at a high level. In the short term, the crude oil trend still dominates the market risk sentiment. The natural rubber fundamentals have both long and short factors, and it is expected to fluctuate within a range of 16,000 - 17,500, with strong cost support at the lower end. Be vigilant about the market trading the reduction of Middle - East tire demand again at the upper end of the price range [2]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash: The fundamental pattern of strong supply and weak demand continues. In the short term, multiple production lines are planned for maintenance. In the medium - to - long term, there is still some room below the current price. It is expected that the futures will be in a shock - adjustment pattern, with a reference range of 1150 - 1300. It is recommended to wait and see unilaterally, and pay attention to inventory and production line changes. - Glass: The current supply - side daily melting volume is already low, and the real - estate data shows that the real - estate is still in the adjustment period, and the demand - side recovery is slow. The overall fundamentals have weak supply and demand. It is advisable to view it with a shock outlook. The strategy is to wait and see, with a reference range of 1000 - 1150. Pay attention to inventory and downstream demand [3]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda: Although the fundamentals have marginally improved, the overall pattern of weak supply and demand remains unchanged. Recently, the Middle - East situation has slightly eased, and after the emotional tide recedes, the futures price has declined. - PVC: In the short term, the supply - demand situation has slightly changed. Affected by the expected increase in ethylene supply tension, the production load of ethylene - based production enterprises may be reduced in the long term, while the calcium - carbide - based production load has slightly increased. The cost increase drives the bottom of the PVC price to rise. The domestic demand is normal, and foreign trade exports are waiting for new quotes due to unstable freight and other risks [4]. Urea - The current urea fundamentals have not improved significantly. In the short term, urea prices are mainly subject to fluctuations driven by energy costs. Recently, the tense situation of high oil prices has slightly eased. Under the background of domestic price - stabilizing policies, urea may experience a shock - decline in the short term [5]. Ester Industry Chain - PX: In the short term, the supply and demand of PX are both weak, and the overall supply - demand is marginally weakening. The current benchmark price still dominates the chemical trend. Pay attention to the downstream negative feedback. It is expected that the absolute price of PX will fluctuate with the oil price in the short term. - PTA: In the short term, PTA's own driving force is limited, and the absolute price fluctuates with the cost side. - Ethylene glycol: In March, the domestic supply of ethylene glycol has significantly declined, and the arrival volume of foreign ships will be at a low level. The polyester load is seasonally rising, and the de - stocking amplitude is expected to expand in March - April. In the short term, the ethylene glycol price still has the momentum to rise. - Short - fiber: In the short term, the short - fiber's own driving force is limited, and it mainly follows the raw material fluctuations. - Bottle chips: The supply of domestic bottle chips is gradually increasing in March. Under the influence of macro and crude oil stimulation and the peak procurement season of PET, the downstream procurement of bottle chips is expected to follow up, and the supply - demand of bottle chips is expected to be tight [6]. Crude Oil - In the short term, the oil price maintains a pattern of "policy suppression + geopolitical support", and Brent maintains a range - bound fluctuation. If the Strait of Hormuz blockade lasts for more than a month, the supply will change from inventory depletion to a substantial shortage, and the oil price may still have strong upward momentum [8]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: The supply of pure benzene is expected to decline, and the supply - demand is expected to improve. In the short term, pure benzene may follow the oil - price fluctuations. - Styrene: In March, the supply of styrene remains high, and the supply - demand is expected to slightly de - stock. In the short term, the absolute price of styrene follows the oil - price fluctuations [10]. Methanol - At present, the price is dominated by supply - interruption expectations and risk sentiment. The subsequent trend highly depends on the actual progress of the geopolitical conflict [11]. LPG - No overall core view provided for LPG in the report Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Polyolefins - Prices: Futures prices of L2605, L2609, PP2605, and PP2609 all declined on March 18 compared with the previous day, with declines ranging from 0.28% to 0.77%. Spot prices of East - China PP and North - China LLDPE also decreased, with declines of 0.58% and 0.61% respectively [1]. - Inventory: PE enterprise inventory decreased by 1.23% to 56.83 million tons, and social inventory decreased by 6.58% to 61.93 million tons. PP enterprise inventory decreased by 9.34% to 59.62 million tons, and trader inventory decreased by 6.04% to 19.36 million tons [1]. - 开工率: PE device start - up rate decreased by 5.20% to 82.39%, and downstream weighted start - up rate increased by 18.20% to 33.83%. PP device start - up rate decreased by 5.95% to 69.98%, and downstream weighted start - up rate of PP powder increased by 14.53% to 31.35 [1]. Rubber - Prices: Spot prices of Yunnan Guofu hand - made rubber and Thai standard mixed rubber decreased by 2.99% and 1.92% respectively on March 18 compared with the previous day. The basis of whole - milk rubber decreased by 200.00% [2]. - Production and Inventory: In January, Thailand's rubber production increased by 11.09% to 549,000 tons, Indonesia's production decreased by 14.90% to 161,100 tons, and India's production decreased by 3.48% to 108,100 tons. The bonded - area inventory decreased by 0.42% to 677,569 tons, and the factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE decreased by 2.20% to 49,291 tons [2]. - 开工率: The start - up rates of semi - steel and all - steel tires increased by 3.68% and 4.32% respectively to 77.71% and 70.22% [2]. Glass and Soda Ash - Prices: Glass prices in North - China, East - China, and Central - China remained unchanged on March 18. Soda ash prices in North - China, East - China, Central - China, and Northwest - China also remained unchanged [3]. - Supply and Inventory: Soda ash start - up rate increased by 0.27% to 87.00%, and weekly output increased slightly. Float - glass daily melting volume decreased by 1.08% to 146,900 tons, and photovoltaic glass daily melting volume increased by 1.82% to 89,360 tons. Glass factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 4.76% to 75,849,000 weight - cases, and soda ash factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 1.6% to 193,170 tons [3]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Prices: On March 18, the price of Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda remained unchanged, while the price of Shandong 50% liquid caustic soda increased by 0.8%. The price of East - China calcium - carbide - based PVC decreased by 0.9%, and the price of East - China ethylene - based PVC remained unchanged [4]. - Supply and Demand: The start - up rate of the caustic - soda industry decreased by 1.3% to 85.3%, and the total start - up rate of PVC increased by 0.3% to 81.4%. The start - up rates of downstream industries such as printing and dyeing increased to varying degrees [4]. - Inventory: Caustic - soda factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 3.6% to 53,000 tons, and PVC upstream factory - warehouse inventory and total social inventory both decreased by 17.7% to 37,700 tons [4]. Urea - Prices: On March 18, the futures price of urea decreased, and the spot price continued to decline weakly. The prices of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and other regions decreased slightly [5]. - Supply and Demand: The daily output of domestic urea decreased by 1.36% to 218,200 tons, and the start - up rate of urea production enterprises decreased by 1.36% to 92.68%. The agricultural demand for return - green fertilizer has ended, and the industrial demand is flat [5]. - Inventory: Domestic urea factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 15.53% to 808,900 tons, and port inventory remained unchanged at 189,000 tons [5]. Ester Industry Chain - Prices: On March 18, the prices of Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil increased, while the prices of downstream polyester products such as POY, FDY, and DTY decreased to varying degrees. The prices of PX, PTA, and MEG also showed different trends [6]. - 开工率: The start - up rates of Asian PX, Chinese PX, PTA, and MEG all decreased to varying degrees, while the start - up rates of polyester comprehensive, direct - spinning filament, and polyester bottle chips increased [6]. Crude Oil - Prices: On March 18, Brent crude oil increased by 3.83% to $107.38 per barrel, WTI crude oil increased by 0.11% to $96.32 per barrel, and SC crude oil increased by 0.90% to 751.20 yuan per barrel [8]. - 价差: The spreads between Brent M1 - M3, SC M1 - M3, and Brent - WTI all changed compared with the previous day [8]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Prices: On March 18, the prices of Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil increased, while the prices of CFR China pure benzene, pure - benzene East - China spot, and benzene - ethylene East - China spot decreased [10]. - Inventory: The inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports decreased by 4.6% to 288,000 tons, and the inventory of benzene - ethylene in Jiangsu ports increased by 3.8% to 162,500 tons [10]. - 开工率: The start - up rates of Asian pure benzene, domestic pure benzene, and benzene - ethylene all decreased to varying degrees [10]. Methanol - Prices: On March 18, the closing price of MA2605 increased by 2.28% to 2912 yuan per ton, and the closing price of MA2609 increased by 1.19% to 2719 yuan per ton [11]. - Inventory: Methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 7.32% to 484,900 tons, and port inventory decreased by 3.89% to 1,262,000 tons [11]. - 开工率: The start - up rate of domestic methanol enterprises increased slightly by 0.07% to 76.27%, and the start - up rate of overseas enterprises decreased by 9.58% to 47.2% [11]. LPG - Prices: On March 18, the prices of PG2604 and PG2605 decreased by 1.42% and 1.15% respectively. The price of South - China spot (civil gas) remained unchanged, and the price of deliverable spot increased by 1.81% [12]. - Inventory: LPG refinery storage - capacity ratio increased by 10.50% to 24.9%, and port inventory decreased by 1.52% to 227,000 tons [12]. - 开工率: The start - up rate of upstream main - refineries decreased by 1.76% to 81.35%, and the start - up rate of downstream PDH decreased by 2.62% to 63.2% [12].