集运早报-20260319

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a wait - and - see approach [2] Core Viewpoints - The EC2604 contract is gradually entering the delivery logic, and it is necessary to observe whether there is an opportunity for basis repair. Although the historical seasonality shows that the 6 - 7 and 6 - 8 reverse spreads have appropriate valuations, it still depends on the duration of the geopolitical situation. If the issue is resolved in May, the current structure is also reasonable [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Contract Information - For the EC2604 contract, the previous closing price was 1905.3, with a decline of 4.95%, a basis of - 359.8, a trading volume of 27129, an open interest of 21187, and an open interest change of - 2265 [2] - For the EC2605 contract, the price was 2137.0, with a decline of 4.64%, a basis of - 591.5, a trading volume of 1060, an open interest of 1847, and an open interest change of - 81 [2] - For the EC2606 contract, the price was 2342.0, with a decline of 4.53%, a basis of - 796.5, a trading volume of 10169, an open interest of 13686, and an open interest change of - 462 [2] - For the EC2607 contract, the price was 2475.0, with a decline of 2.93%, a basis of - 929.5, a trading volume of 393, an open interest of 841, and an open interest change of 60 [2] - For the EC2608 contract, the price was 2316.0, with a decline of 3.54%, a basis of - 770.5, a trading volume of 1094, an open interest of 2770, and an open interest change of - 6 [2] - For the EC2609 contract, the price was 1693.3, with a decline of 3.34%, a basis of - 147.8, a trading volume of 127, an open interest of 542, and an open interest change of 8 [2] - For the EC2610 contract, the price was 1525.4, with a decline of 3.46%, a basis of 20.1, a trading volume of 2351, an open interest of 7808, and an open interest change of - 147 [2] - For the EC2612 contract, the price was 1718.8, with a decline of 4.56%, a basis of - 173.3, a trading volume of 113, an open interest of 411, and an open interest change of 6 [2] Month - to - Month Spread Information - The EC2604 - 2606 spread was - 436.7, with a daily increase of 11.8 and a weekly decrease of 19.9 [2] - The EC2604 - 2605 spread was - 231.7, with a daily increase of 4.7 and a weekly decrease of 186.3 [2] - The EC2606 - 2610 spread was 816.6, with a daily decrease of 56.4 and a weekly decrease of 39.9 [2] Spot Market Information - The spot price of the European line (Tolar) was 1545.46 points on March 9, 2026, with a week - on - week increase of 5.61% [2] - The SCFI (European line) was 1618 dollars/TEU on March 13, 2026, with a week - on - week increase of 11.43% [2] European Line Spot Situation - In late March, OA and PA alliances and MSC announced price increases to around 4000 US dollars [3] - In Week 12, MSK offered 2250 US dollars (a week - on - week increase of 400), QA alliance offered 2700 - 2800 US dollars, PA alliance offered 2200 US dollars (a reduction of 200 for large - volume orders), and MSC offered 2740 US dollars (a reduction of 200 for large - volume orders). The average price was 2450 US dollars, equivalent to about 1715 points on the futures market [3] - In Week 13, MSK kept the price at 2250 US dollars, while other shipping companies offered around 2700 - 3000 US dollars [3] - On Tuesday, Maersk opened the booking for the first week of April (Week 14) at 2650 US dollars (a week - on - week increase of 400) [3] - On Wednesday, YML offered 2400 US dollars for the last week of March (2200 US dollars for 3 routes), and MSC offered 2840 US dollars (2640 US dollars for large - volume orders) [3] News - On March 18, CMA CGM raised the emergency fuel surcharge from 150 to 265 US dollars/TEU [4] - On March 18, Iran's national TV reported that parts of the South Pars gas field and the Asaluyeh oil industrial facilities were attacked [4] - On March 19, the US Senate rejected the resolution to limit the use of force against Iran again [4] - On March 19, foreign media reported that Trump was considering sending thousands of US troops to the Middle East and evaluating ground - operation options [4] - On March 19, Iran stated that if the attacks continued, it would expand the scope of strikes to all energy infrastructure of US and Israeli allies [5]