大越期货沪镍、不锈钢早报-20260319

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - 沪镍: The outer market continues to decline slightly, showing a weak and volatile trend. In terms of supply, the production schedule in March is increasing, and domestic inventory is piling up, indicating sufficient market supply. On the industrial chain, the sentiment of bullish on nickel ore is strong, the RKAB policy in Indonesia continues to ferment, and there is a sharp contrast between the strong demand in Indonesia and the sluggish transactions due to cost inversion in China. The price of nickel iron is weakly stable, and the cost line is firm. The inventory of stainless steel continues to decline slightly, and the demand is weak. The production and sales data of new energy vehicles meet expectations, but the month - on - month decline is large in the off - season. The conclusion is that Shanghai Nickel 2605 will run weakly in a volatile manner [2]. - Stainless Steel: The price of spot stainless steel has decreased. In the short term, the price of nickel ore is firm, the demand in Indonesia is strong, the price of nickel iron is weakly stable, and the cost line has strong support. The inventory of stainless steel has decreased slightly, and the demand is weak. The conclusion is that Stainless Steel 2605 will run in a wide - range oscillation around the 20 - day moving average [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Nickel and Stainless Steel Price Overview - Futures Prices: On March 18, the price of Shanghai Nickel's main contract was 135,200, down 740 from March 17; the price of LME Nickel was 17,160, down 95; the price of stainless steel's main contract was 14,020, down 75. The nickel index was 134,050, down 1,200, and the cold - rolled index was 13,563, down 68 [9]. - Spot Prices: On March 18, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 138,000, down 1,950; the price of 1 Jinchuan nickel was 141,350, down 2,000; the price of 1 imported nickel was 134,700, down 2,050; the price of nickel beans was 137,250, down 2,000. The prices of cold - rolled 304*2B in Wuxi, Hangzhou, and Shanghai remained unchanged, while the price in Foshan was 14,900, down 100 [9]. 2. Nickel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - LME and SHFE Inventory: As of March 18, LME nickel inventory was 283,950, an increase of 210 from the previous day; SHFE nickel warehouse receipts were 57,194, a decrease of 53. The total inventory was 341,144, an increase of 157 [12]. - Previous Inventory Data: As of March 13, the SHFE nickel inventory was 63,681 tons, with the futures inventory at 56,462 tons, an increase of 1,912 tons and 2,894 tons respectively [11]. 3. Stainless Steel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - Futures Inventory: On March 18, the stainless steel warehouse receipts were 53,481, a decrease of 421 from March 17 [17]. - Regional Inventory: On March 13, the inventory in Wuxi was 610,300 tons, the inventory in Foshan was 389,500 tons, and the national inventory was 1,142,500 tons, a decrease of 75,000 tons month - on - month. Among them, the inventory of 300 - series stainless steel was 707,100 tons, a decrease of 92,000 tons month - on - month [16]. 4. Nickel Ore and Nickel Iron Prices - Nickel Ore Prices: On March 18, the price of red - soil nickel ore CIF with Ni1.5% was 80 US dollars per wet ton, and the price of red - soil nickel ore CIF with Ni0.9% was 34.5 US dollars per wet ton, both remaining unchanged. The sea freight from the Philippines to Lianyungang was 15 US dollars per ton, an increase of 0.5; the sea freight from the Philippines to Tianjin Port was 17 US dollars per ton, an increase of 1.5 [20]. - Nickel Iron Prices: The price of high - nickel wet ton (8 - 12) was 1,093.48 yuan per nickel point, a decrease of 0.75; the price of low - nickel wet ton (below 2) was 3,675 yuan per ton, remaining unchanged [20]. 5. Stainless Steel Production Cost - Cost Types: The traditional production cost was 14,186, the production cost using scrap steel was 14,081, and the production cost using low - nickel and pure nickel was 17,882 [22]. 6. Nickel Import Cost - The calculated import price was 133,893 yuan per ton [25].