Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Urea Morning Report [2] - Date: March 19, 2026 [2] - Author: Zhu Tianyi from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - The overall fundamentals of urea are neutral, with high daily production and operating rates year-on-year, expected to remain at high levels. Industrial demand is recovering, but agricultural demand has entered a lull. The inventory has accumulated, and the external price is rising due to geopolitical factors, widening the export price gap [4]. - The UR2605 contract basis is 5, with a premium/discount ratio of 0.3%, indicating neutrality [4]. - The UR comprehensive inventory is 114.7 million tons (-14.2), indicating a bearish trend [4]. - The 20-day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20-day line, indicating a bullish trend [4]. - The net position of the UR main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, indicating a bearish trend [4]. - The urea main contract is expected to fluctuate strongly, with high daily production year-on-year, differentiated industrial demand, and a peak in agricultural demand. The inventory is accumulating, and the UR is expected to fluctuate today [4]. Group 4: Urea Overview 利多 - Agricultural demand is gradually entering the peak season [5] - Overseas prices continue to strengthen [5] 利空 - Daily production is at a historical high [5] Main Logic - International prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5] Main Risk Point - Changes in export policies [5] Group 5: Market Data | Category | Details | | --- | --- | | Spot Market | - Spot delivery price: 1860 (0)
- Shandong spot price: 1880 (-10)
- Henan spot price: 1860 (0)
- FOB China: 4433 | | Futures Market | - 05 contract price: 1855 (-23)
- UR01 price: 1866 (-22)
- UR05 price: 1855 (-23)
- UR09 price: 1894 (-25)
- Basis: 5 (23) | | Inventory | - Warehouse receipts: 8499 (444)
- UR comprehensive inventory: 114.7 million tons (0)
- UR factory inventory: 95.8 million tons (0)
- UR port inventory: 18.9 million tons (0) | [6] Group 6: Supply and Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Imports | PP Import Dependency | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | | 2245.5 | | 1956.81 | 448.38 | 18.6% | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | | | 2019 | | 2445.5 | 8.9% | 2240 | 487.94 | 17.9% | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | | 2825.5 | 15.5% | 2580.98 | 619.12 | 19.3% | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | | 3148.5 | 11.4% | 2927.99 | 352.41 | 10.7% | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | | 3413.5 | 8.4% | 2965.46 | 335.37 | 10.2% | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | | 3893.5 | 14.1% | 3193.59 | 293.13 | 8.4% | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | | 4418.5 | 13.5% | 3425 | 360 | 9.5% | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | | 4906 | 11.0% | | | | | | | [9]
大越期货尿素早报-20260319
Da Yue Qi Huo·2026-03-19 02:27