大越期货玻璃早报-20260319

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of glass remain weak, with low supply, dismal downstream deep - processing factory orders, and rising glass factory inventories. It is expected that glass will mainly experience low - level, volatile, and weak operation in the short term [2][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main glass futures contract decreased from 1094 yuan/ton to 1066 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.56%. The spot price of Shahe Safety large - plate glass remained unchanged at 976 yuan/ton. The main basis changed from - 118 yuan/ton to - 90 yuan/ton, a change of - 23.73% [6]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large - plate in the spot benchmark area of Hebei Shahe was 976 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous day [11]. Fundamentals - Cost Side - Glass production profit has been slightly repaired, but cold - repair is less than expected, and supply is at a low level [2]. Fundamentals - Production Line and Output - The number of operating national float glass production lines is 209, with an operating rate of 71.05%, and the number of operating production lines is at a historical low for the same period. The daily melting volume of national float glass is 146,900 tons, and the production capacity is at a historical low for the same period [17][19]. Fundamentals - Demand - In November 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.6944 million tons [23]. Fundamentals - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 75.849 million weight boxes, a decrease of 4.76% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average [2][38]. Fundamentals - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance sheet shows the production, consumption, and other data of float glass from 2017 to 2024E. For example, in 2024E, the production is 55.1 million tons, the consumption is 53.1 million tons, and the production growth rate is 3.94% [39]. Influencing Factors - Positive factors: Glass production profit is at a low level, leading to a decline in production [4]. - Negative factors: The terminal demand in the real - estate industry remains weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low for the same period. The capital recovery in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly consuming the inventory of raw glass [4].