大越期货纯碱早报-20260319

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash are bearish, with high supply expectations, declining downstream demand, and high inventory. The basis shows futures premium over spot, and the main position is net short with an increase in short positions. Considering cost - side support, soda ash is expected to move in a range in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - Fundamentals: The start - up load of Yuangxing Energy's Phase II has increased, and the output of soda ash plants is at a high level, with overall supply expected to be abundant. The daily melting volume of downstream float glass and photovoltaic glass has been declining, and the inventory of soda ash plants is at the highest level in the same period of history [2]. - Basis: The spot price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,200 yuan/ton, and the closing price of SA2605 is 1,211 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 11 yuan, indicating futures premium over spot [2]. - Inventory: The national in - plant inventory of soda ash is 1.9317 million tons, a decrease of 0.80% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [2][30]. - Disk: The price is running below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward [2]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing [2]. - Expectation: Supported by the cost side, soda ash is expected to move in a range in the short term [2]. 3.2 Factors Affecting Soda Ash - Positive Factors: There is less cold repair of downstream float glass, and production remains stable. The conflict between the US and Iran boosts the bullish sentiment in the market [4]. - Negative Factors: The start - up load of Yuangxing Energy's Phase II production line has increased, and there is no expectation of new maintenance, so the output is expected to remain at a high level. The production of heavy - soda downstream photovoltaic glass has decreased, and the demand for soda ash has weakened [4]. - Main Logic: The supply of soda ash is at a high level, terminal demand is declining, inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [4]. 3.3 Soda Ash Futures Market | Indicator | Previous Value | Current Value | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main Contract Closing Price (yuan/ton) | 1,243 | 1,211 | - 2.57% | | Heavy Soda Ash: Shahe Low - end Price (yuan/ton) | 1,220 | 1,200 | - 1.64% | | Main Basis (yuan/ton) | - 23 | - 11 | - 52.17% | [5] 3.4 Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market is 1,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from the previous day [11]. 3.5 Soda Ash Production - Production Profit: The profit of heavy soda ash using the North China ammonia - soda process is - 94.20 yuan/ton, and the profit of the East China co - production process is 86 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash is at a historical low [14]. - Start - up Rate and Output: The weekly start - up rate of the soda ash industry is 87%. The weekly output of soda ash is 809,200 tons, including 428,300 tons of heavy soda ash, and the output is at a historical high [17][19]. 3.6 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - Sales - to - Production Ratio: The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 101.92% [22]. - Downstream Demand: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 146,900 tons, and the start - up rate is 71.05% [25]. 3.7 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national in - plant inventory of soda ash is 1.9317 million tons, a decrease of 0.80% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [30]. 3.8 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective capacity, output, start - up rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, and growth rates of capacity, output, apparent supply, and total demand [31].