大越期货沪锌期货早报-20260319

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai zinc futures showed a volatile downward trend in the previous trading day, with increased trading volume and both long and short positions increasing, but the short positions increased more. The market is expected to be volatile and weak in the short term. The price closed below the moving - average system, losing short - term support. The short - term KDJ indicator declined and was in the weak area with increased oversold conditions. The trend indicator showed that the long - position strength decreased and the short - position strength increased, with the short - position strength having an expanding advantage. The operation suggestion is that the Shanghai zinc ZN2605 will be volatile and weak [18]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Analysis - In November 2025, the global zinc plate production was 1.197 million tons, consumption was 1.168 million tons, with a supply surplus of 29,000 tons. From January to November, the global zinc plate production was 12.7561 million tons, consumption was 13.1065 million tons, with a supply shortage of 350,400 tons. In November, the global zinc ore production was 1.069 million tons. From January to November, the global zinc ore production was 12.1419 million tons. The overall fundamental situation is bullish [2]. 3.2 Basis Analysis - The spot price was 23,260, and the basis was - 85, showing a neutral situation [2]. 3.3 Inventory Analysis - On March 18, the LME zinc inventory decreased by 350 tons to 118,025 tons, and the SHFE zinc inventory warrants increased by 2,593 tons to 101,263 tons, presenting a neutral situation [2]. 3.4 Market Trend Analysis - The Shanghai zinc futures showed a volatile downward trend in the previous trading day, closing below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average was downward, which is bearish [2]. 3.5 Main Position Analysis - The main net long position increased, which is bullish [2]. 3.6 Futures Market Quotes - On March 18, the trading volume of zinc futures on the futures exchange was 227,073 lots, with a turnover of 2.66144842 billion yuan, and the open interest was 205,724 lots, an increase of 12,840 lots. Different delivery months had different price changes, with varying degrees of decline [3]. 3.7 Spot Market Quotes - On March 18, the domestic spot price of 0 zinc in different regions such as Shanghai, Guangdong, Tianjin, and Zhejiang all declined, with price ranges and specific prices provided [4]. 3.8 Inventory Statistics - From March 5 to March 16, 2026, the total social inventory of zinc ingots in major domestic markets increased from 213,600 tons to 236,200 tons. Compared with March 9, it increased by 17,900 tons, and compared with March 12, it increased by 5,100 tons [5]. 3.9 Warehouse Receipt Report - On March 18, the total SHFE zinc warehouse receipts were 101,263 tons, an increase of 2,593 tons. Different regions had different changes in warehouse receipts, with Shanghai increasing by 300 tons, Guangdong increasing by 431 tons, and Tianjin increasing by 1,862 tons [6]. 3.10 LME Inventory Distribution - On March 18, the LME zinc inventory decreased by 350 tons to 118,025 tons, with different inventory changes in different regions and corresponding registered and cancelled warehouse receipts and cancellation ratios [7]. 3.11 Zinc Concentrate Price - On March 18, the prices of zinc concentrates in major domestic cities all decreased by 510 yuan/ton, with a price of 19,950 - 20,050 yuan/ton for 50% grade zinc concentrates [9]. 3.12 Zinc Ingot Smelter Price - On March 18, the prices of 0 zinc ingots from different smelters all decreased by 640 yuan/ton, with prices ranging from 22,940 - 23,940 yuan/ton [12]. 3.13 Refined Zinc Production - In February 2026, the domestic refined zinc production was 470,900 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.72% and a year - on - year increase of 10.01%. The planned production for March was 490,200 tons [14]. 3.14 Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee - On March 18, the domestic zinc concentrate processing fee for 50% grade was 1,400 - 1,700 yuan/metal ton, and the import processing fee for 48% grade was 10 - 30 US dollars/kiloton [16]. 3.15 Member Transaction and Position Ranking - On March 18, the total trading volume of zinc futures of SHFE members was 140,641 lots, an increase of 51,393 lots. The total long position was 65,474 lots, an increase of 10,415 lots, and the total short position was 64,761 lots, an increase of 12,173 lots. Different members had different trading volume, long - position, and short - position changes [17].