股指周报：宏观形势逐渐稳定，股指震荡收敛-20260319

Report Investment Rating The provided text does not mention the investment rating for the industry. Core Viewpoints - Macro situation is gradually stabilizing, and stock index fluctuations are converging [1] - Overseas conflict situation has eased, and overall macro risk appetite has stabilized. The next round of China-US consultations will be held soon, and the market may expect the two countries to reach new consensus [4] - A-share major indexes have entered a phase of volatility with decreasing volatility, and the market style switches frequently. Energy is one of the few sectors maintaining a strong upward trend. Technically, there is no sign of a breakthrough trend yet. Fundamental economic data is greatly affected by holidays, and it is necessary to continue to wait and observe the recovery rhythm. It is recommended to mainly adopt a wait-and-see approach and combine with a small amount of bull spread options [4] Summary by Directory 1. Futures Indicators - Market Overview: This week, the four major index futures contracts fluctuated narrowly with the index. IF and IH increased by 0.18% and decreased by 1.15% respectively; IC and IM decreased by 1.39% and 0.33% respectively. From the changes in the positions of the top 20 seats, the net short positions of IF decreased by 2,288 lots, those of IH increased by 193 lots, those of IC decreased by 4,868 lots, and those of IM decreased by 4,345 lots. As of this Friday, the optimal rollover contracts for IF, IH, IC, and IM were all the 2604 contracts [10] - A-shares: This week, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index decreased by 1.07%, the Shanghai 50 Index decreased by 1.54%, the CSI 500 Index decreased by 3.44%, and the CSI 1000 Index decreased by 3.64% [10] - Basis and Cross-variety Ratios: The basis of the four major index futures contracts fluctuated neutrally, and the market's long and short forces were relatively balanced. The current basis of the IF main contract was -11.14 points, that of the IH main contract was 0.15 points, that of the IC main contract was -26.0 points, and that of the IM main contract was -27.29 points. This week, the futures contract ratios, PE ratios, and PB ratios of CSI 1000/Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 and CSI 500/Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 decreased, and the market was mainly in a state of shock [10] - Industry Sector Performance: This week, most of the Wind primary industry indexes declined, while the energy sector rose against the trend. The top rising sectors included materials, energy, and public utilities, with increases of 8.03%, 6.31%, and 5.50% respectively; the top falling sectors included communication services, finance, and daily consumption, with decreases of 3.20%, 1.10%, and 0.18% respectively [13] - Futures Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volumes of the four major index futures significantly shrank [14] - Spot-futures Price Difference Trend: The basis fluctuated and declined, and seasonality gradually emerged [19] - Inter-period Spread Trend: The text provides the inter-period spread trends of IF, IC, IH, and IM [24] - Cross-variety Ratios: The futures ratios, PE ratios, and PB ratios of some cross-varieties decreased, and the market was mainly in a state of shock [32] - Positions of the Top 20 Seats and Market Trends: The long-short ratio has rebounded [40] - Short Rollover Costs: The annualized short rollover cost of the next-month contract was the lowest [47] 2. Macro Fundamental Tracking - Domestic High-frequency Macroeconomic Tracking: In January, the M1 and M2 increased by 4.9% and 9.0% year-on-year respectively, and the growth rates accelerated by 1.1 and 0.5 percentage points compared with the previous month. The credit of the enterprise sector increased significantly year-on-year. From January to December 2025, the national fixed asset investment decreased by 3.8% year-on-year, and the national real estate development investment decreased by 17.2% year-on-year, with the decline still expanding. In February, affected by the Spring Festival, the CPI increased by 1.0% month-on-month and 1.3% year-on-year, and the core CPI excluding food and energy prices increased by 1.8% year-on-year. The PPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month and decreased by 0.9% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing continuously. In December, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 0.9% year-on-year. In February, the manufacturing PMI was 49%, and the non-manufacturing PMI was 49.5%. The automobile production and consumption showed that the full-steel tire and semi-steel tire increased by 36.73% and 39.47% respectively compared with last week. From January to February, exports (in US dollars) increased by 21.8% year-on-year, imports increased by 19.8% year-on-year, and the trade surplus was 213.62 billion US dollars [59] - Real Estate: The land transactions in first-tier cities significantly rebounded. In 2025, the national real estate development investment decreased by 17.2% year-on-year, and the decline continued to expand. At the beginning of 2026, the commercial housing transactions slightly rebounded [60][67] - Consumption: The decline of PPI continued to narrow, and the Spring Festival had a significant boost to the consumer price index [72] - Automobile Production and Sales: The steel tire operating rate continued to rise, and automobile sales declined in January [76] - Foreign Trade: From January to February, foreign trade had a good start, and the global manufacturing cycle was on the rise [84] 3. Liquidity Tracking - Liquidity Indicator Tracking: On March 13, the SHIBOR overnight interest rate was 1.32%, unchanged from last week. The loan market quotation rate remained unchanged, with the 1-year LPR at 3.0% and the 5-year LPR at 3.5%. This week, the central bank conducted 176.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations. Due to the maturity of 277.6 billion yuan of reverse repurchase, the net withdrawal for the whole week was 101.1 billion yuan. This week, A-share funds had a cumulative net active sell-off of 314.79 billion yuan, the average daily trading volume of A-shares in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets slightly shrank to 2.48 trillion yuan, the margin trading balance increased, and the stock ETF funds had a net outflow of 1.0503 billion yuan [91][92]