《黑色》日报-20260319

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel Industry - Affected by the high opening of coking coal, steel prices maintained a high - level volatile trend. Downstream demand is gradually picking up, and there is a price increase for non - standard specifications of rebar. Supply and demand in the steel industry are seasonally increasing, and inventories are seasonally decreasing, with basic balance in supply and demand. However, the upward elasticity of demand is not large, and domestic demand is slightly weak while exports are okay. After the end of production restrictions last week, production will rebound significantly this week, testing the height of demand. Recently, due to supply - side disturbances of iron ore and coking coal, raw material prices have strengthened, pushing up steel prices. Pay attention to whether rebar and hot - rolled coils can effectively break through 3150 and 3300 respectively [1]. Iron Ore Industry - Yesterday, the main iron ore contract rose and then fell. Geopolitical conflicts still cause disturbances, and commodities generally declined. Recently, the acceleration of steel mill复产 and the limited liquidity of some spot varieties support the futures price in the short term. The iron ore shipment from Guinea increased significantly month - on - month, and the sustainability of the shipment increase needs attention. In terms of fundamentals, on the supply side, the global iron ore shipment increased month - on - month, with significant increases in Australia and non - mainstream mines. The impact of rainfall in Brazil has weakened, and there will be no rainfall in Western Australia in the future. On the demand side, the molten iron output decreased month - on - month last week. Steel mills that had maintenance before are resuming production intensively recently, and the impact of steel mill maintenance has declined significantly. It is expected that the molten iron output will increase rapidly from this week. In terms of inventory, the steel mill inventory decreased slightly month - on - month, and the port inventory increased slightly. Affected by the decline in arrivals and the restocking of downstream steel mills and the increase in port clearance, the port inventory has gradually changed from inventory accumulation to slight inventory reduction, but the high absolute inventory value will still restrict the price increase space. In the future, under the influence of geopolitical shocks, steel mill复产, and tightened spot liquidity, the main iron ore contract will fluctuate strongly in the short term, with the operating range referring to 780 - 840 yuan/ton [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - Yesterday, the coke and coking coal futures prices fell from high levels. On the spot side, the mainstream steel mills started the first - round price cut for coke on March 4, which was successfully implemented on March 6. With the rise of coking coal, coke has a bottom - building and rebound expectation, and port prices fluctuate with futures. On the supply side, coke price adjustments lag behind coking coal. After the price cut, coking profits declined. During the Two Sessions, coke enterprise start - up decreased slightly and will gradually recover after the sessions. The sharp rise in chemical product prices makes up for the coke losses. On the demand side, after the end of the Two Sessions, steel mill production restrictions were lifted, molten iron output increased, and coke production increased synchronously. With the cost push, coke prices also have a bottom - building and rebound expectation. In terms of inventory, mines and ports are accumulating inventory, while coke enterprises, steel mills, coal washing plants, and ports are all reducing inventory. The overall inventory is seasonally decreasing, but the upstream inventory accumulation is bearish. The supply and demand of coke are basically balanced in the short term. In terms of strategy, the conflict between the US and Iran drives the sharp rise of energy commodities, giving a rising drive to coal and coke as energy substitutes, but the sustainability still needs to pay attention to the improvement of domestic supply and demand. It is recommended to go long on the coke 2605 contract at low prices, with the range referring to 1650 - 1850. For coking coal, energy inflation and substitution expectations will support it. The spot reaction lags, and it is recommended to go long on the coking coal 2605 contract at low prices, with the range referring to 1100 - 1300, and the arbitrage suggestion is to go long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese Industry - Yesterday, the main silicon iron contract fell significantly, and commodities generally declined. On the spot side, the inventory pressure of manufacturers is limited, and they mainly produce according to orders. In terms of fundamentals, the silicon iron production increased slightly month - on - month last week. In the production areas, Ningxia and Qinghai resumed production. After resuming production this week, Shengjin reached full production, and Qinghai mainly produces according to orders. The hedging profit did not meet expectations, and the participation of manufacturers decreased. In the future, the silicon iron production will continue to increase, but the high electricity price in Qinghai will still suppress the start - up rate, and the supply growth rate may be slow. In terms of steelmaking demand, the molten iron output decreased month - on - month last week. Steel mills that had maintenance before are resuming production intensively recently, and it is expected that the molten iron output will increase rapidly from this week. In terms of magnesium and aluminum production, it is at a relatively low level but has decreased month - on - month, and the demand support has weakened. The export is affected, and it is difficult to conclude transactions in the short term, and the overall demand is marginally weakening. In terms of cost, the Lan charcoal price is stable, and the raw coal price and downstream demand are both supported. Affected by factors such as production area复产, the price of silicon ore fluctuates. In the future, in the short term, affected by international geopolitical conflicts, the market sentiment is changeable. The supply and demand of silicon iron both increase, and the supply - demand contradiction is limited, but there is no driving force for a trend - type market. It is expected that the price will fluctuate widely, with the range referring to 5700 - 6200. - Yesterday, the main silicon manganese contract declined. Affected by energy costs and manganese ore support, silicon manganese has been stronger than silicon iron recently, and the price difference between silicon iron and silicon manganese has widened. On the spot side, the mainstream steel procurement prices have not been set, and the market sentiment is cautious. In terms of fundamentals, the silicon manganese supply increased slightly month - on - month. Production in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia remained stable, and production in Yunnan resumed due to electricity price subsidies. In Guangxi, Guizhou and other places, the valley - electricity cost increased, and manufacturers still have little enthusiasm to start production. It is expected that there will be new silicon manganese plant production capacity coming on - line in the second quarter, and the supply will continue to increase marginally. In terms of demand, the molten iron output decreased month - on - month last week. Steel mills that had maintenance before are resuming production intensively recently, and it is expected that the molten iron output will increase rapidly from this week. In terms of cost, some manganese ore sources at ports are in a tight supply - demand balance, and the downstream short - term transaction is difficult. The manganese ore price fluctuates due to factors such as the US - Iran conflict causing an increase in shipping and mining costs. In the future, in the short term, affected by international geopolitical conflicts, the market sentiment is changeable. The supply and demand of silicon manganese both increase, and the supply growth rate restricts the price increase height, while there is also no driving force for a trend - type decline. It is expected that the price will fluctuate widely, with the range referring to 5800 - 6400 [7]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar spot prices in East China, North China, and South China are 3260, 3200, and 3280 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of +10, 0, and 0 yuan/ton compared to the previous value. Rebar 05, 10, and 01 contracts are 3140, 3165, and 3196 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 8, - 3, and - 1 yuan/ton compared to the previous value. - Hot - rolled coil spot prices in East China, North China, and South China are 3290, 3220, and 3280 yuan/ton respectively, with no change compared to the previous value. Hot - rolled coil 05, 10, and 01 contracts are 3310, 3311, and 3321 yuan/ton respectively, with a change of - 3 yuan/ton compared to the previous value [1]. Cost and Profit - The billet price is 2980 yuan/ton, with no change. The slab price is 3730 yuan/ton, with no change. - The cost of Jiangsu electric - furnace rebar is 3271 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan/ton; the cost of Jiangsu converter rebar is 3158 yuan/ton, an increase of 14 yuan/ton. - The profit of East China hot - rolled coil is 30 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton; the profit of North China hot - rolled coil is - 40 yuan/ton, with no change; the profit of South China hot - rolled coil is 20 yuan/ton, with no change. - The profit of East China rebar is - 10 yuan/ton, with no change; the profit of North China rebar is - 60 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton; the profit of South China rebar is 160 yuan/ton, with no change [1]. Production - The daily average molten iron output is 221.2 tons, a decrease of 6.3 tons or 2.8% compared to the previous value. - The output of five major steel products is 821.0 tons, an increase of 23.7 tons or 3.0% compared to the previous value. - The rebar output is 195.3 tons, an increase of 22.0 tons or 12.7% compared to the previous value, among which the electric - furnace output is 29.0 tons, an increase of 17.3 tons or 148.2%, and the converter output is 166.3 tons, an increase of 4.7 tons or 2.9%. - The hot - rolled coil output is 295.3 tons, a decrease of 5.9 tons or 1.9% compared to the previous value [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products is 1974.9 tons, an increase of 22.9 tons or 1.2% compared to the previous value. - The rebar inventory is 894.2 tons, an increase of 18.5 tons or 2.1% compared to the previous value. - The hot - rolled coil inventory is 471.6 tons, a decrease of 0.1 tons or 0.0% compared to the previous value [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials transaction volume is 9.3 tons, a decrease of 0.8 tons or 8.2% compared to the previous value. - The apparent demand of five major steel products is 798.1 tons, an increase of 106.7 tons or 15.4% compared to the previous value. - The apparent demand of rebar is 176.8 tons, an increase of 78.6 tons or 80.0% compared to the previous value. - The apparent demand of hot - rolled coil is 295.4 tons, an increase of 13.8 tons or 4.9% compared to the previous value [1]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of Karara fines, PB fines, Brazilian mixed fines, and Jinbuba fines are 925.3, 849.0, 845.2, and 886.2 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 2.2, - 4.4, - 4.3, and - 4.3 yuan/ton compared to the previous value. - The 05 - contract basis of Karara fines, PB fines, Brazilian mixed fines, and Jinbuba fines are 114.3, 38.0, 34.2, and 75.2 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 3.3, 1.1, 1.2, and 1.2 yuan/ton compared to the previous value. - The 5 - 9 spread is 32.0, an increase of 1.0 or 3.2% compared to the previous value; the 9 - 1 spread is 21.0, an increase of 0.5 or 2.4% compared to the previous value [4]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - The spot prices of Karara fines, PB fines, Brazilian mixed fines, and Jinbuba fines at Rizhao Port are 951.0, 793.0, 823.0, and 738.0 yuan/wet ton respectively, with changes of - 2.0, - 4.0, - 4.0, and - 4.0 yuan/wet ton compared to the previous value. - The Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap price is 107.1 dollars/ton, an increase of 0.7 dollars/ton or 0.6% compared to the previous value [4]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume (weekly) is 2215.0 tons, a decrease of 394.9 tons or 15.1% compared to the previous value. - The global shipment volume (weekly) is 3048.8 tons, an increase of 151.0 tons or 5.2% compared to the previous value. - The national monthly import volume is 9763.8 tons, a decrease of 2200.9 tons or 18.4% compared to the previous value [4]. Demand - The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 221.2 tons, a decrease of 6.4 tons or 2.8% compared to the previous value. - The 45 - port daily average clearance volume (weekly) is 317.9 tons, an increase of 6.8 tons or 2.2% compared to the previous value. - The national monthly pig iron output is 0.0 tons, a decrease of 6072.2 tons or 100.0% compared to the previous value. - The national monthly crude steel output is 0.0 tons, a decrease of 6817.7 tons or 100.0% compared to the previous value [4]. Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventory is 17187.52 tons, an increase of 69.7 tons or 0.4% compared to the previous value. - The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 8929.1 tons, a decrease of 82.5 tons or 0.9% compared to the previous value. - The inventory available days of 64 steel mills (weekly) is 23.0 days, with no change compared to the previous value [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Coke - related Prices and Spreads - The price of Shanxi first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse - receipt) is 1681 yuan/ton, with no change. The coke 05 and 09 contracts are - 11 and 1803 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 7 and - 7 yuan/ton compared to the previous value. The 05 and 09 basis are 13 and - 69 yuan/ton respectively [6]. Coking Coal - related Prices and Spreads - The price of Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal (warehouse - receipt) is 1230 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton or 2.5% compared to the previous value. The coking coal 05 and 09 contracts are 1722 and 1282 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 10 and - 22 yuan/ton compared to the previous value. The 05 and 09 basis are 74 and - 14 yuan/ton respectively [6]. Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants is 63.9 tons, a decrease of 0.1% compared to the previous value. The daily average output of 247 steel mills is 47.0 tons, with no change. The raw coal output of Fenwei sample mines is 873.9 tons, an increase of 12.6 tons or 1.5% compared to the previous value, and the clean coal output is 445.9 tons, an increase of 2.7 tons or 0.64% compared to the previous value [6]. Demand - The molten iron output of 247 steel mills is 221.2 tons, a decrease of 6.4 tons or 2.8% compared to the previous value. The daily average output of all - sample coking plants is 63.9 tons, with no change [6]. Inventory Changes - The total coke inventory is 984.4 tons, a decrease of 0.3 tons or 0.0% compared to the previous value. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants is 100.4 tons, a decrease of 9.9 tons or 8.9% compared to the previous value. The coke inventory of 247 steel mills is 687