碳酸锂期货早报-20260319

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view on the lithium carbonate market is a state of tight supply - demand balance, with sentiment fluctuations caused by news. The lithium carbonate 2605 contract is expected to oscillate between 145,740 - 156,500 [10][14]. - In terms of fundamentals, it is bullish. The basis shows that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, also bullish. The disk is neutral, and the main position is net short with a reduction in short positions, which is bearish. In the future, supply is expected to increase, demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may be reduced [10][11]. - There are both bullish and bearish factors in the market. Bullish factors include the production cut plan of lithium mica manufacturers and the decrease in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile. Bearish factors are the continuous high supply at the ore/salt lake end with limited decline [12][13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - Fundamentals: Bullish. Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 23,426 tons, a 3.70% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. The inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased, while the smelter inventory decreased, and the overall inventory decreased slightly and was lower than the historical average [7][8]. - Basis: On March 18, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 155,500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 5,380 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is bullish [11]. - Inventory: The lithium carbonate 2605 contract is expected to oscillate between 145,740 - 156,500 [10]. - Cost: The cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate decreased by 1.17% day - on - day, resulting in a loss. The cost of purchasing lithium mica decreased by 2.47% day - on - day, resulting in a profit. The cost of the recycling end is generally higher than that of the ore end, with low production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end is significantly lower than that of the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [11]. - Disk: The MA20 is upward, and the price of the 05 contract closed below the MA20, which is neutral [11]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and the short positions are decreasing, which is bearish [11]. - Expectation: In February 2026, the lithium carbonate production was 83,090 physical tons, and the predicted production for next month is 106,390 physical tons, a 28.04% month - on - month increase. The import volume in February was 21,800 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 26,000 physical tons, a 19.27% month - on - month increase. Demand is expected to strengthen next month, and inventory may be reduced [11]. 3.2 Lithium Carbonate Market Overview - Futures Closing Price: The closing prices of various contracts decreased to varying degrees compared with the previous values. For example, the 05 contract decreased from 155,320 to 150,120, a decrease of 5,200 or 3.35% [17]. - Basis: The basis of various contracts increased to varying degrees compared with the previous values. For example, the basis of the 05 contract increased from 2,680 to 5,380, an increase of 2,700 or 100.75% [17]. - Registered Warehouse Receipts: The number of registered warehouse receipts was 35,769, a decrease of 696 or 1.91% compared with the previous value [17]. - Upstream Prices: The prices of lithium ore, lithium salts, and other products changed to varying degrees. For example, the price of lithium spodumene (6%) decreased from 2,185 to 2,157 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 28 or 1.28% [17]. 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - Production: The production of lithium ore from different sources such as lithium spodumene, lithium mica, and salt lake has changed. For example, the monthly production of lithium carbonate from lithium spodumene decreased from 50,200 to 60,100 tons, a decrease of 9,900 or 16.47% [20]. - Import: The import volume of lithium ore and lithium carbonate has changed. For example, the monthly import volume of lithium concentrate decreased from 677,528 to 628,032 tons, a decrease of 49,496 or 7.31% [20]. - Supply - Demand Balance: The supply - demand balance of lithium ore shows different situations in different months. For example, in February 2026, the supply - demand balance was - 6,821 tons [20]. 3.4 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - Production: The production of lithium carbonate from different sources such as lithium spodumene, lithium mica, and salt lake has changed. For example, the monthly production of lithium carbonate decreased from 97,900 to 83,090 tons, a decrease of 14,810 or 15.13% [20]. - Import and Export: The import and export volume of lithium carbonate has changed. For example, the monthly import volume of lithium carbonate increased from 22,055.19 to 23,988.66 tons, an increase of 1,933.47 or 8.77% [20]. - Supply - Demand Balance: The supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate shows different situations in different months. For example, in February 2026, the supply - demand balance was - 6,821 tons [40]. 3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - Production: The production of lithium hydroxide from different sources such as smelting and causticizing has changed. For example, the monthly production of lithium hydroxide decreased from 26,950 to 22,940 tons, a decrease of 4,010 or 14.88% [20]. - Import and Export: The import and export volume of lithium hydroxide has changed. For example, the monthly net export volume of lithium hydroxide decreased from 1,937.11 to 1,225.17 tons, a decrease of 711.94 or 36.75% [20]. - Supply - Demand Balance: The supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide shows different situations in different months. For example, in February 2026, the supply - demand balance was - 1,412 tons [45]. 3.6 Lithium Compound Cost and Profit - Cost and Profit of Purchasing Lithium Spodumene Concentrate: The cost decreased, resulting in a loss in production [11]. - Cost and Profit of Purchasing Lithium Mica Concentrate: The cost decreased, resulting in a profit in production [11]. - Cost and Profit of Recycling Lithium - Containing Materials: The cost is generally high, and the production enthusiasm is low [11]. - Cost and Profit of Lithium Carbonate Import: It shows different profit situations in different periods [49]. 3.7 Inventory - Lithium Carbonate Inventory: The total inventory decreased slightly, with the smelter inventory decreasing and the downstream inventory increasing [8]. - Lithium Hydroxide Inventory: The inventory situation also shows certain changes [57]. 3.8 Demand - Lithium Battery - Power Battery: The production, sales, and installation volume of power batteries have changed. For example, the monthly installation volume of power batteries decreased from 42,000 GWh to 26,300 GWh, a decrease of 15,700 or 37.38% [20]. - Energy - Storage Battery: The production, sales, and installation volume of energy - storage batteries have changed. For example, the monthly production of energy - storage battery cells shows a certain trend [63]. 3.9 Demand - Ternary Precursor - Price and Cost: The price and cost of ternary precursors have changed. For example, the price of 5 - series (single - crystal/power - type) ternary precursors remained unchanged at 104,400 yuan/ton [17]. - Production and Supply - Demand Balance: The production and supply - demand balance of ternary precursors show different situations in different months. For example, in February 2026, the supply - demand balance was 804 tons [69]. 3.10 Demand - Ternary Material - Price and Cost: The price and cost of ternary materials have changed. For example, the price of 5 - series (single - crystal/power - type) ternary materials decreased from 193,500 to 192,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 700 or 0.36% [17]. - Production and Supply - Demand Balance: The production and supply - demand balance of ternary materials show different situations in different months [72]. 3.11 Demand - Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium - Price and Cost: The price and cost of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium have changed. For example, the price of power - type iron phosphate lithium decreased from 55,475 to 54,870 yuan/ton, a decrease of 605 or 1.09% [17]. - Production and Supply - Demand Balance: The production and supply - demand balance of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium show different situations in different months [76]. 3.12 Demand - New Energy Vehicle - Production, Sales, and Export: The production, sales, and export volume of new energy vehicles have changed. For example, the monthly production of new energy vehicles decreased from 1,718,000 to 1,041,000, a decrease of 677,000 or 39.41% [20]. - Sales Penetration Rate: The sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles shows an upward trend [85].