大越期货原油早报-20260319

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the Iranian oil and gas fields were attacked, the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard issued an emergency warning. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar's oil facilities became legitimate targets for attack, causing short - term market concerns to surge and oil prices to rise again. It is expected that oil prices will remain high. For SC2605, operate strongly in the range of 800 - 840, and wait for opportunities to short at high levels in the long - term [3]. - In the short - term, continue to focus on changes in the geopolitical situation. In the medium - to - long - term, wait for the situation to ease before entering the market for reverse operations [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Hints - Fundamental factors: The attack on Iran's South Pars Gas Field marked a major escalation of the conflict with the US and Israel. Iran announced counter - attacks on oil and gas targets in the entire Gulf region. The Fed maintained the target range of the benchmark interest rate at 3.50% - 3.75% and expected inflation to rise, unemployment to remain stable, and one interest rate cut this year. The US Vice - President and other key Trump administration officials planned to hold a closed - door meeting with oil executives, and measures regarding oil prices would be announced in the next 24 - 48 hours [3]. - Basis: On March 18, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $156.02 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude oil was $99.07 per barrel. The basis was 21.42 yuan per barrel, with the spot at a premium to the futures [3]. - Inventory: In the week ending March 13, the API crude oil inventory in the US increased by 6.556 million barrels (expected increase of 73,000 barrels), the EIA inventory increased by 6.156 million barrels (expected increase of 383,000 barrels), and the Cushing area inventory increased by 944,000 barrels. As of March 18, the Shanghai crude oil futures inventory was 3.511 million barrels, unchanged [3]. - Market trend: The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the price was above the moving average [3]. - Main positions: As of March 10, the main positions of WTI and Brent crude oil were long, and the long positions increased [3]. 2. Recent News - Iran's Revolutionary Guard mentioned several oil and gas facilities in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar. An Israeli official confirmed the attack on the South Pars Gas Field. Since the US - Israel war on February 28, oil prices have soared nearly 50%. Iran has carried out retaliatory actions, and the key Strait of Hormuz has been effectively blocked. The UAE may assist in ensuring the safety of the Strait of Hormuz [5]. - The Trump administration temporarily exempted the "Jones Act" to reduce the transportation costs of oil, natural gas, and other commodities in the US. However, some analysts believe this exemption will have limited effects [5]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Bullish factors: None mentioned. - Bearish factors: Trump intends to end the war quickly [6]. - Market drivers: In the short - term, continue to focus on changes in the geopolitical situation. In the medium - to - long - term, wait for the situation to ease before entering the market for reverse operations [6]. - Risk points: The Strait of Hormuz has guaranteed navigation, and the war cools down quickly [6]. 4. Fundamental Data - Futures market: The settlement price of Brent crude oil decreased by $0.50 (- 0.48%), WTI crude oil decreased by $0.75 (- 0.78%), SC crude oil increased by 6.70 (0.90%), and Oman crude oil increased by $0.54 (0.35%) [7]. - Spot market: The price of UK Brent Dtd increased by $9.38 (9.07%), WTI increased by $0.11 (0.11%), Oman crude oil decreased by $1.83 (- 1.16%), Shengli crude oil decreased by $0.63 (- 0.62%), and Dubai crude oil decreased by $2.00 (- 1.27%) [9]. - API inventory: In the week ending March 13, the API crude oil inventory increased by 6.556 million barrels to 472.774 million barrels [3][11]. - EIA inventory: In the week ending March 13, the EIA crude oil inventory increased by 6.156 million barrels to 449.259 million barrels [3][13]. 5. Position Data - WTI crude oil fund net long positions: As of March 10, the net long position was 228,015, an increase of 55,865 [17]. - Brent crude oil fund net long positions: As of March 10, the net long position was 351,032, an increase of 65,438 [19].