大越期货燃料油早报-20260319

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The low - sulfur fuel oil market is more tense than the high - sulfur market, with a much higher spread. The expected arrival of arbitrage cargoes from the West in March and April is decreasing. The Singapore fuel oil inventory decreased by 1250000 barrels in the week of March 11, 2026. The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward. The high - sulfur main position is short and increasing, while the low - sulfur main position is long and increasing. The East - West near - month spread of high - sulfur fuel oil has reached the widest level in six years. The attack on Iranian oil and gas production facilities has boosted the fuel price. FU2605 is expected to run strongly in the range of 4950 - 5300, and LU2605 in the range of 6100 - 6500 [3] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - The high - sulfur fuel oil main contract futures price decreased by 11 to 4687, a decrease of 0.23%. The low - sulfur fuel oil main contract futures price increased by 90 to 5586, an increase of 1.64%. The high - sulfur fuel oil basis increased by 121.98 to 590, an increase of 26.07%. The low - sulfur fuel oil basis increased by 253 to 1051, an increase of 32% [5] - The price of Zhoushan high - sulfur fuel decreased by 7 to 1016, a decrease of 0.68%. The price of Zhoushan low - sulfur fuel decreased by 15 to 1020, a decrease of 1.45%. The price of Singapore high - sulfur fuel decreased by 4.9 to 744.17, a decrease of 0.65%. The price of Singapore low - sulfur fuel increased by 12.66 to 936.12, an increase of 1.37%. The price of Middle - East high - sulfur fuel decreased by 1.8 to 670.56, a decrease of 0.27%. The price of Singapore diesel decreased by 14.65 to 1395.63, a decrease of 1.04% [6] 3.2 Long and Short Concerns - Bullish factors: The low - sulfur fuel oil market is more tense, the expected arrival of Western arbitrage cargoes is decreasing, the inventory is decreasing, the price is above the 20 - day line, the low - sulfur main position is long and increasing, and the attack on Iranian oil and gas production facilities boosts the fuel price [3] - Bearish factors: The Trump administration's TACO situation and the pressure on upstream crude oil [4] - Market drivers: The supply is affected by geopolitical risks, and the demand is neutral [4] 3.3 Fundamental Data - The low - sulfur fuel oil market is more tense than the high - sulfur market, and the spread of low - sulfur fuel oil is much higher. The expected arrival of arbitrage cargoes from the West in March and April is decreasing. The Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil price is 744.17 dollars/ton with a basis of 590 yuan/ton, and the Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil price is 936.12 dollars/ton with a basis of 1051 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [3] 3.4 Spread Data - The report shows the graph of the high - and low - sulfur futures spread, but no specific numerical analysis is provided [10] 3.5 Inventory Data - The Singapore fuel oil inventory in the week of March 11, 2026, was 24499000 barrels, a decrease of 1250000 barrels. The inventory data from December 31, 2025, to March 11, 2026, is also presented, showing the changes in inventory over time [3][8]