锡产业期现日报-20260319

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about the report industry investment ratings is provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report Tin - Short - term tin prices are expected to fluctuate weakly, with attention on the performance of tin prices at the 350,000 - yuan level. The long - term bullish logic for tin prices still exists, and short - term adjustments may provide opportunities for long - term long positions [1][2]. Copper - In the short term, the inventory structural contradiction that previously drove copper price increases has basically been resolved. Prices are under pressure due to reduced market risk appetite and are in an adjustment phase. It is recommended to follow the changes in the US - Iran conflict and overseas inventory accumulation, with the main focus on the pressure around 98,000 yuan [4]. Zinc - The short - term zinc price is expected to operate weakly. It is necessary to pay attention to zinc ore TC, marginal changes in demand, and macro - level guidance, with the main focus on the support between 22,800 - 23,000 yuan [7]. Aluminum - The alumina market should maintain a short - term bearish strategy on rallies. For aluminum, in the short term, it will oscillate at high levels with news changes. The LME spot shortage and high domestic inventory create internal and external driving differentiation, and the Shanghai - London ratio is expected to continue to weaken. In the long term, the long - term bullish logic remains unchanged. It is recommended to closely monitor inventory inflection points and downstream resumption progress, with the main Shanghai aluminum contract expected to operate in the range of 24,000 - 26,000 yuan/ton [9]. Aluminum Alloy - The short - term raw material cost at a high level strongly supports the ADC12 price, but demand follows slowly and the negative feedback effect of high prices is gradually emerging. The market is expected to continue to oscillate at high levels, with the main contract reference range of 23,000 - 24,500 yuan/ton [10]. Nickel - The macro sentiment exerts pressure, but the raw material end has contradictions and supports the price. The inventory shows internal and external differentiation. The bottom support is strong, but the upward driving force needs to be further transmitted to the real end. The disk is expected to oscillate within a range, with the main reference range of 132,000 - 142,000 yuan [11]. Stainless Steel - The macro sentiment has a certain suppressing effect, the raw material end is tight with strong cost support, and there is a game between supply and demand as steel mills increase production and demand gradually recovers. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate and adjust, with the main reference range of 13,800 - 14,500 yuan [13]. Lithium Carbonate - The macro sentiment is weak and exerts pressure, while the actual fundamentals of lithium carbonate are resilient, and demand remains optimistic but lacks further momentum. In the short term, the unilateral driving force is limited, and it is expected to oscillate and adjust widely around the macro and news, with the main reference range of 146,000 - 158,000 yuan [15][16]. Industrial Silicon - The spot price is stable, and the futures price continues to decline significantly due to overall sentiment. The cost end may support the bottom of industrial silicon. The supply is growing rapidly, demand is growing slightly, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation. It is advisable to operate cautiously and wait and see, and consider trying long positions at around 8,100 yuan [17]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon spot market is stable, and the futures price drops significantly with market sentiment, reflecting the pessimistic expectation of inventory accumulation. The industry still faces oversupply pressure. It is recommended to wait and see for now. If you want to participate, you can consider trying long positions after the price stabilizes, but pay attention to position control and setting stop - losses [18]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Tin - Price and Basis: The price of SMM 1 tin is 369,500 yuan/ton, down 2.85% [1]. - Internal and External Price Ratios and Import Profits and Losses: The import loss is - 6,076.10 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio is 7.89 [1]. - Monthly Spreads: For example, the spread between 2604 - 2605 is - 270 yuan/ton, down 58.82% [1]. - Fundamental Data: In December, tin ore imports were 17,637 tons, up 16.81%; SMM refined tin production in February was 11,490 tons, down 23.91% [1]. - Inventory Changes: SHEF inventory increased by 7.30%, social inventory increased by 2.10%, SHEF warehouse receipts decreased by 3.09%, and LME inventory increased by 2.52% [2]. Copper - Price and Basis: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper is 98,990 yuan/ton, down 1.23% [4]. - Internal and External Price Ratios and Import Profits and Losses: The import profit is 363 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio (delayed by one day) is 7.91 [4]. - Monthly Spreads: For example, the spread between 2604 - 2605 is - 20 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan/ton [4]. - Fundamental Data: Electrolytic copper production in February was 114.24 million tons, down 3.13%; the import volume in December was 26.02 million tons, down 4.02% [4]. - Inventory Changes: Domestic social inventory decreased by 5.46%, bonded area inventory decreased by 4.18%, SHFE inventory increased by 1.96%, LME inventory increased by 1.13%, and COMEX inventory decreased by 0.24% [4]. Zinc - Price and Spreads: The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot is 23,200 yuan/ton, down 2.81% [7]. - Price Ratios and Profits and Losses: The import loss is - 2,774 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio is 7.26 [7]. - Monthly Spreads: For example, the spread between 2604 - 2605 is - 20 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton [7]. - Fundamental Data: Refined zinc production in February was 50.46 million tons, down 9.99%; the import volume in December was 0.88 million tons, down 51.94% [7]. - Inventory Changes: China's seven - region zinc ingot social inventory increased by 5.19%, and LME inventory decreased by 0.30% [7]. Aluminum - Price and Spreads: The price of SMM A00 aluminum is 24,510 yuan/ton, down 1.57% [9]. - Price Ratios and Profits and Losses: The electrolytic aluminum import loss is - 3,420 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio is 7.34 [9]. - Monthly Spreads: For example, the spread between AL 2603 - 2604 is - 100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton [9]. - Fundamental Data: Alumina production in February was 660.02 million tons, down 10.63%; domestic electrolytic aluminum production was 346.00 million tons, down 8.91% [9]. - Inventory Changes: China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 4.33%, and LME inventory decreased by 0.84% [9]. Aluminum Alloy - Price and Spreads: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 is 25,000 yuan/ton, down 0.40% [10]. - Monthly Spreads: For example, the spread between 2603 - 2604 is - 23,595 yuan/ton, an increase of 130 yuan/ton [10]. - Fundamental Data: The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in February was 35.80 million tons, down 41.31%; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 20.93 million tons, down 30.99% [10]. - Inventory Changes: The weekly social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 5.56% [10]. Nickel - Price and Basis: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel is 138,000 yuan/ton, down 1.39% [11]. - Cost of Electrolytic Nickel: The cost of integrated MHP - produced electrolytic nickel is 113,324 yuan/ton, down 0.69% [11]. - New Energy Material Prices: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 85,150 yuan/ton, up 0.95% [11]. - Monthly Spreads: For example, the spread between 2603 - 2604 is 1,620 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,090 yuan/ton [11]. - Supply, Demand, and Inventory: China's refined nickel production was 32,600 tons, down 7.45%; the import volume was 23,394 tons, up 84.63%. SHFE inventory increased by 3.10%, and social inventory increased by 3.49% [11]. Stainless Steel - Price and Basis: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) is 14,350 yuan/ton, down 0.35% [13]. - Raw Material Prices: The average price of Philippine laterite nickel ore 1.5% (CIF) is 80 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged [13]. - Monthly Spreads: For example, the spread between 2603 - 2604 is - 250 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton [13]. - Fundamental Data: The production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China (43 companies) was 190.08 million tons, up 44.07%; the import volume was 14.50 million tons, up 29.32% [13]. - Inventory Changes: The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) decreased by 1.19%, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 0.78% [13]. Lithium Carbonate - Price and Basis: The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is 155,500 yuan/ton, down 1.58% [15]. - Monthly Spreads: For example, the spread between 2603 - 2605 is 1,380 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,720 yuan/ton [15]. - Fundamental Data: Lithium carbonate production in February was 83,090 tons, down 15.13%; the demand was 111,503 tons, down 10.57% [15]. - Inventory Changes: The total lithium carbonate inventory in February was 28,353 tons, down 4.76% [15]. Industrial Silicon - Price and Basis: The price of East China oxygen - containing SI5530 industrial silicon is 9,200 yuan/ton, unchanged [17]. - Monthly Spreads: For example, the spread between the main contract and the next - month contract is - 20 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton [17]. - Fundamental Data: The national industrial silicon production was 27.57 million tons, down 26.58%; the national operating rate was 38.02%, down 21.33% [17]. - Inventory Changes: The social inventory (weekly) decreased by 0.18%, and the warehouse receipt inventory (daily) decreased by 1.40% [17]. Polysilicon - Spot Price and Basis: The average price of N - type re - feedstock is 45,500 yuan/kg, unchanged [18]. - Futures Price and Monthly Spreads: The main contract price is 40,105 yuan, down 3.76% [18]. - Fundamental Data: The polysilicon production was 1.90 million tons, up 1.06%; the import volume was 0.00 million tons, down 100.00% [18]. - Inventory Changes: The polysilicon inventory was 35.70 million tons, up 2.59%; the silicon wafer inventory was 28.35 million tons, down 2.28% [18].