工业硅期货早报-20260319

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply increased last week, the demand rose, the cost support increased during the dry - season, and it is expected to fluctuate in the 8290 - 8460 range [3][6] - For polysilicon, the supply production is continuously increasing, the demand shows some recovery but may be weak later, the cost support is stable, and it is expected to fluctuate in the 39200 - 41010 range [8] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week, the supply was 78,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.33% [6] - Demand: Last week, the demand was 68,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.62% [6] - Inventory: Polysilicon inventory was 357,000 tons, at a high level; organic silicon inventory was 58,500 tons, at a low level; alloy ingot inventory was 58,000 tons, at a high level; social inventory was 552,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.18%; sample enterprise inventory was 197,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.61%; main port inventory was 134,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.74% [6] - Cost: The production cost of sample oxygen - passing 553 in Xinjiang was 9769.7 yuan/ton, remaining the same month - on - month [6] - Basis: On March 18, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing in East China was 9200 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 825 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6] - Disk: MA20 was flat, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed below MA20 [6] - Main Position: The main position was net short, and the short position decreased [6] 3.1.2 Polysilicon - Supply: Last week, the output was 19,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.06%, and the planned production in March was 84,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.25% [8] - Demand: Last week, the silicon wafer output was 11.98GW, a month - on - month increase of 8.12%, and the inventory was 283,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.27%; the battery cell output in February was 37.09GW, a month - on - month decrease of 10.49%, and the external sales factory inventory last week was 5.82GW, a month - on - month decrease of 16.61%; the component output in February was 29.3GW, a month - on - month decrease of 16.76%, and the planned output in March was 41.39GW, a month - on - month increase of 41.26% [8] - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon was 40,720 yuan/ton, and the production profit was 2280 yuan/ton [8] - Basis: On March 18, the price of N - type dense material was 43,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 5395 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [8] - Inventory: The weekly inventory was 357,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.58%, at a high level in the same period of history [8] - Disk: MA20 was downward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed below MA20 [8] - Main Position: The main position was net long, and the long position increased [8] 3.2 Industrial Silicon Market Overview - Futures closing prices of various contracts showed different degrees of decline compared with the previous values [14] - Spot prices of different types of industrial silicon remained unchanged [14] - Inventory data of different regions and types showed different trends, such as a decrease in social inventory and an increase in sample enterprise inventory [14] 3.3 Polysilicon Market Overview - Futures closing prices of various contracts showed different degrees of decline compared with the previous values [15] - Prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components showed different trends, and some remained unchanged [15] - Inventory and production data of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components also showed different trends [15] 3.4 Industrial Silicon Price - Basis and Delivery Product Spread Trends - The report presents the historical trends of the basis of the SI main contract and the spread between 421 and 553 in East China [17][18] 3.5 Industrial Silicon Inventory - The report shows the historical trends of inventory in delivery warehouses, ports, and SMM sample enterprises [20][21][22] 3.6 Industrial Silicon Production and Capacity Utilization Trends - The report shows the historical trends of weekly production of SMM sample enterprises, monthly production by specification, and the opening rate of sample enterprises [24][25][26] 3.7 Industrial Silicon Component Cost Trends - The report shows the historical trends of electricity prices in main production areas, silicon stone prices in main production areas, graphite electrode prices, and some reducing agent prices [30][31] 3.8 Industrial Silicon Cost - Sample Region Trends - The report shows the historical cost trends of 421/553 in Sichuan, Xinjiang, and Yunnan [32][33][34] 3.9 Industrial Silicon Weekly Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report shows the historical trends of weekly supply - demand balance of industrial silicon [36][37] 3.10 Industrial Silicon Monthly Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report shows the monthly supply - demand balance data of industrial silicon from 2025 to 2026 [39][40] 3.11 Industrial Silicon Downstream - Organic Silicon - DMC Price and Production Trends: The report shows the historical trends of DMC daily capacity utilization, profit - cost, weekly output, and price [42][43] - Downstream Price Trends: The report shows the historical trends of prices of 107 glue, raw rubber, silicone oil, and D4 [44][45][46][47] - Import - Export and Inventory Trends: The report shows the historical trends of DMC monthly import - export volume and inventory [49][50][51] 3.12 Industrial Silicon Downstream - Aluminum Alloy - Price and Supply Situation: The report shows the historical trends of waste aluminum recycling volume, waste aluminum social inventory, aluminum scrap import volume, SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price, and import ADC12 cost - profit [52][53] - Inventory and Production Trends: The report shows the historical trends of monthly production of primary aluminum - based aluminum alloy ingots and recycled aluminum alloy ingots, weekly opening rates of primary and recycled aluminum alloys, and aluminum alloy ingot social inventory [55][56] - Demand (Automobiles and Wheels): The report shows the historical trends of monthly automobile production, sales, and aluminum alloy wheel export [57][58][59] 3.13 Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon - Fundamental Trends: The report shows the historical trends of polysilicon industry cost, price, total inventory, monthly output, monthly opening rate, and monthly demand [61][62] - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: The report shows the monthly supply - demand balance data of polysilicon from 2024 to 2025 [64][65] - Silicon Wafer Trends: The report shows the historical trends of silicon wafer price, weekly output, weekly inventory, monthly demand, and net export of single - crystal and poly - crystal silicon wafers [67][68] - Battery Cell Trends: The report shows the historical trends of single - crystal P/N type battery cell price, battery cell production scheduling and actual output, photovoltaic battery external sales factory weekly inventory, photovoltaic battery opening rate, and battery cell export [70][71] - Photovoltaic Component Trends: The report shows the historical trends of component price, domestic and European photovoltaic component inventory, monthly component output, and component export [73][74] - Photovoltaic Accessory Trends: The report shows the historical trends of photovoltaic coating price, photovoltaic film import - export volume, photovoltaic glass monthly output, export volume, high - purity quartz sand price, and solder strip import - export volume [76][77] - Component Composition Cost - Profit Trends (210mm): The report shows the historical trends of silicon material cost, silicon wafer profit - cost, battery cell profit - cost, and component profit - cost of 210mm double - sided double - glass components [79] - Photovoltaic Grid - Connected Power Generation Trends: The report shows the historical trends of national new power generation installed capacity, power generation composition and total amount, photovoltaic power station new grid - connected capacity, and solar monthly power generation [80][81]