《农产品》日报-20260319

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided in the reports. Core Views Oils and Fats - Malaysian palm oil futures are expected to seek support at 4,500 ringgit, and domestic palm oil may decline to 9,500 yuan. US biodiesel policy is awaited, and domestic soybean oil may oscillate above 8,500 yuan. Vegetable oil market has positive factors, and rapeseed oil needs to watch for capital movements. [1] Cotton - ICE cotton futures are under pressure from a stronger dollar. US cotton is expected to maintain a volatile and upward trend. Domestic cotton has a bearish factor realized, and short - term prices will remain high and volatile. [2] Sugar - ICE raw sugar futures reached a seven - week high. Global sugar supply surplus is expected to narrow. Domestic sugar prices are supported but limited by weak sales data and increased imports, and will maintain high - level volatility. [4] Red Dates - In the off - season, the inventory reduction pressure is large. Red date futures prices are expected to oscillate and bottom out. [5][9] Apples - The apple spot market shows structural differentiation. Cold - storage inventory is at a historical low, supporting the futures price. Attention should be paid to Qingming replenishment, ordinary fruit de - stocking, and weather changes. [13][17] Corn - Corn prices in the Northeast are stable, and those in North China are steady. Demand from ports and deep - processing enterprises is recovering, but feed enterprises' demand is weak. Corn prices will remain high and volatile. [20][22] Meal - The US soybean market is回调, but the decline is limited. Domestic soybean meal is expected to maintain high - level volatility, waiting for the planting intention report. [24] Pigs - Slaughter volume is increasing, but the supply is large. The market is waiting for a lower entry point. Futures and spot prices are expected to continue to bottom out. [27] Eggs - Egg supply may decline slightly, and demand is average. Egg prices will maintain a low - level volatile pattern. [29] Summary by Industry Oils and Fats - Price Changes: On March 18, compared with March 17, soybean oil spot price decreased by 0.23%, futures price decreased by 1.20%, and basis increased by 40.78%. Palm oil spot price decreased by 1.62%, futures price decreased by 2.63%, and basis increased by 134.21%. Rapeseed oil spot price decreased by 0.60%, futures price decreased by 0.54%, and basis decreased by 2.02%. [1] Cotton - Futures Market: Cotton 2605 decreased by 1.74%, and 2609 decreased by 1.61%. The 5 - 9 spread decreased by 26.67%. The main contract's open interest decreased by 7.98%. [2] - Spot Market: Xinjiang arrival price and CC Index 3128B increased, while FC Index M 1% increased significantly. The basis of 3128B - 05 and 3128B - 09 increased. [2] - Industry Situation: Commercial inventory decreased by 100%, industrial inventory increased by 14.5%, and imports increased by 49.5%. [2] Sugar - Futures Market: Sugar 2605 decreased by 1.17%, and 2609 decreased by 1.21%. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 10.00%. The main contract's open interest decreased by 7.00%. [4] - Spot Market: Nanning and Kunming spot prices decreased, and the basis increased. Imported sugar prices increased. [4] - Industry Situation: National sugar production decreased by 4.69%, sales decreased by 27.39%, and industrial inventory increased by 17.03%. [4] Red Dates - Futures Market: Red date 2605 decreased by 2.55%, 2607 decreased by 2.61%, and 2609 decreased by 2.50%. The 5 - 7 spread increased by 5.41%, and the 5 - 9 spread increased by 1.33%. The open interest decreased by 6.05%. [5] - Spot Market: Cangzhou spot prices remained stable, and the basis increased. [5] Apples - Futures Market: Apple 2605 increased by 0.03%, and 2610 increased by 0.24%. The 5 - 10 spread decreased by 1.33%. The open interest increased by 1.59%. [13] - Spot Market: The basis decreased by 6.35%. [13] - Industry Situation: National cold - storage inventory decreased by 5.27%. [13] Corn - Corn: The 2605 price decreased by 0.17%, the basis increased by 16.67%, and the 5 - 9 spread remained unchanged. The north - south trade profit decreased by 34.48%. [20] - Corn Starch: The 2605 price decreased by 0.33%, the basis increased by 386.00%, and the 5 - 9 spread remained unchanged. [20] Meal - Soybean Meal: The spot price increased by 0.30%, the futures price decreased by 1.11%, and the basis increased by 17.60%. The import crushing profit decreased by 23.3%. [24] - Rapeseed Meal: The spot price decreased by 0.75%, the futures price decreased by 1.69%, and the basis increased by 11.28%. The import crushing profit decreased by 75.34%. [24] Pigs - Futures Market: The main contract basis increased by 706.25%, the 2605 price decreased by 2.06%, and the 3 - 5 spread decreased by 76.70%. The open interest increased by 1.13%. [27] - Spot Market: Spot prices in various regions decreased slightly. [27] - Industry Situation: Slaughter volume increased by 0.80%, the white - striped pork price decreased by 3.01%, and the self - breeding profit decreased by 18.98%. [27] Eggs - Futures Market: The 04 contract increased by 0.65%, and the 05 contract increased by 0.53%. The 4 - 5 spread increased by 2.34%. [29] - Spot Market: The egg - producing area price increased by 1.80%, the egg - chick price remained unchanged, and the culled - hen price increased by 5.26%. [29] - Industry Situation: The egg - to - feed ratio decreased by 9.00%, and the breeding profit decreased by 249.92%. [29]