瑞达期货铁矿石产业链日报-20260319

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The I2605 contract fluctuated weakly on Thursday. The Fed kept the federal funds rate target range between 3.5% and 3.75%, meeting market expectations. The shipping volume of Australian and Brazilian iron ore increased, the arrival volume decreased, and domestic port inventories continued to rise. Steel mills generally purchase on demand. The volatile situation in the Middle East and oil prices affect market sentiment. Technically, the 1-hour MACD of the I2605 contract shows a downward adjustment, and the futures price may consolidate in the range of 800 - 815. Attention should be paid to risk control [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract was 807.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.50 yuan; the position volume was 446,896 lots, a decrease of 8,625 lots. The 5 - 9 contract spread was 31.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.50 yuan. The net position of the top 20 in the I contract was -17,786 lots, an increase of 5,246 lots. The warehouse receipts of the Dalian Commodity Exchange were 3,400 lots, unchanged. The Singapore iron ore main contract was quoted at 107.2 US dollars/ton at 15:00, an increase of 0.11 US dollars [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port was 849 yuan/dry ton, a decrease of 7 yuan; the price of 60.5% Mac fines was 834 yuan/dry ton, a decrease of 6 yuan. The price of 56.5% Super Special fines at Jingtang Port was 751 yuan/dry ton, a decrease of 5 yuan. The basis of the I main contract was 27 yuan, a decrease of 3 yuan. The 62% Platts iron ore index was 108.50 US dollars/ton (previous day), a decrease of 1.50 US dollars. The ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.5% Mac fines at Qingdao Port was 3.18, an increase of 0.03. The estimated import cost was 861 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan [2] 3.3 Industry Situation - The global iron ore shipping volume was 3,048.80 million tons per week, an increase of 151.00 million tons; the arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2,317.00 million tons per week, a decrease of 380.50 million tons. The iron ore inventory at 47 ports was 17,947.32 million tons per week, an increase of 52.49 million tons; the iron ore inventory of sample steel mills was 8,929.10 million tons per week, a decrease of 82.47 million tons. The iron ore import volume was 9,764.00 million tons per month, a decrease of 1,475.00 million tons. The available days of iron ore were 21 days per week, unchanged. The daily output of 266 mines was 39.81 million tons per week, an increase of 1.21 million tons; the operating rate of 266 mines was 62.49%, an increase of 1.59 percentage points. The iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines was 47.68 million tons per week, a decrease of 2.49 million tons. The BDI index was 2,064.00, an increase of 40.00. The freight rate from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao was 30.51 US dollars/ton, an increase of 0.61 US dollars; the freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao was 12.365 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.36 US dollars [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 78.36% per week, an increase of 0.67 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 82.90% per week, a decrease of 2.40 percentage points. The domestic crude steel output was 6,818 million tons per month, a decrease of 169 million tons [2] 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 15.88% per day, an increase of 0.21 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 16.20% per day, an increase of 0.02 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 19.34% per day, an increase of 0.53 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 19.78% per day, a decrease of 0.19 percentage points [2] 3.6 Industry News - According to Mysteel statistics, the total inventory of imported sinter powder of 114 steel mills was 2,848.1 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 105.72 million tons. The total daily consumption was 108.7 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 7.04 million tons. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 26.2, a week - on - week decrease of 0.78. From March 9th to March 15th, 2026, the arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2,317.0 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 380.5 million tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports was 2,215.0 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 394.9 million tons; the arrival volume at six northern ports was 1,230.2 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 234.3 million tons [2] 3.7 Key Points of Attention - The iron ore port inventory in domestic ports, the blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate of steel mills on Friday [2]