瑞达期货PVC产业日报-20260319

1. Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestic PVC supply and demand are in a tight - balanced state, and the previous high inventory is expected to be digested. The V2605 is expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term due to geopolitical news. The downstream is gradually entering the traditional peak season, and the operating rate is expected to rise to a relatively high level for the whole year. Overseas device shutdowns in South Korea and other countries are beneficial to PVC exports [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures is 5860 yuan/ton, with a ring - on - ring increase of 125 yuan/ton; the trading volume is 2,273,087 lots, with a ring - on - ring increase of 267,171 lots; the open interest is 831,069 lots, with a ring - on - ring decrease of 24,311 lots. The long position of the top 20 futures holders is 1,033,792 lots, with a ring - on - ring increase of 3,876 lots; the short position is 1,058,909 lots, with a ring - on - ring increase of 14,284 lots; the net long position is - 25,117 lots, with a ring - on - ring decrease of 10,408 lots [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 6,500 yuan/ton, with a ring - on - ring decrease of 50 yuan/ton, and the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 5,689.26 yuan/ton, with a ring - on - ring decrease of 48.52 yuan/ton. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 6,545 yuan/ton, with a ring - on - ring decrease of 35 yuan/ton, and the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 5,750.62 yuan/ton, with a ring - on - ring decrease of 106.25 yuan/ton. The CIF price of PVC in China and Southeast Asia is 1,050 US dollars/ton, with a ring - on - ring increase of 210 US dollars/ton; the FOB price in Northwest Europe is 1,050 US dollars/ton, with a ring - on - ring increase of 140 US dollars/ton. The basis of PVC is - 55 yuan/ton, with a ring - on - ring increase of 116 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China is 2,825 yuan/ton, with a ring - on - ring increase of 25 yuan/ton; in North China, it is 2,833.33 yuan/ton, with a ring - on - ring increase of 43.33 yuan/ton; in Northwest China, it is 2,661 yuan/ton, with a ring - on - ring increase of 18 yuan/ton. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia is - 150 yuan/ton, with no change. The CFR mid - price of VCM in the Far East is 787 US dollars/ton, with a ring - on - ring increase of 245 US dollars/ton; in Southeast Asia, it is 788 US dollars/ton, with a ring - on - ring increase of 210 US dollars/ton. The CFR mid - price of EDC in the Far East is 300 US dollars/ton, with a ring - on - ring increase of 55 US dollars/ton; in Southeast Asia, it is 299 US dollars/ton, with a ring - on - ring increase of 50 US dollars/ton [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The operating rate of PVC is 81.35%, with a ring - on - ring increase of 0.24%. The operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC is 82.93%, with a ring - on - ring increase of 2.28%; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC is 77.6%, with a ring - on - ring decrease of 4.61%. The total social inventory of PVC is 63.18 tons, with a ring - on - ring decrease of 0.39 tons. The total social inventory in the East China region is 58.08 tons, with no change; in the South China region, it is 5.1 tons, with a ring - on - ring decrease of 0.39 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index is 91.45, with a ring - on - ring decrease of 0.45. The cumulative value of new housing construction area is 587,699,600 square meters, with a ring - on - ring increase of 53,132,600 square meters. The cumulative value of real estate construction area is 6,598,902,900 square meters, with a ring - on - ring increase of 38,240,900 square meters. The cumulative value of completed real estate development investment is 448.9598 billion yuan, with a ring - on - ring increase of 287.141 billion yuan [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC is 39.97%, with a ring - on - ring increase of 2%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 32.09%, with a ring - on - ring increase of 0.87%. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 48.67%, with a ring - on - ring decrease of 10.09%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 48.68%, with a ring - on - ring decrease of 10.07% [3]. 3.7 Industry News - From March 6th to 12th, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 81.35%, with a ring - on - ring increase of 0.24%. From March 7th to 13th, the downstream operating rate of PVC increased by 3.49% to 39.33% on a ring - on - ring basis, among which the operating rate of pipes increased by 5% to 38% and the operating rate of profiles increased by 2.61% to 30% on a ring - on - ring basis. As of March 12th, the social inventory of PVC was 1.4072 million tons, with a ring - on - ring increase of 0.24%. From March 6th to 12th, the national average cost of calcium carbide - based PVC increased by 8.02% to 5,150 yuan/ton on a ring - on - ring basis, and the national average cost of ethylene - based PVC increased by 20.22% to 6,452 yuan/ton on a ring - on - ring basis. The profit of calcium carbide - based PVC increased by 159 yuan/ton to 267 yuan/ton on a ring - on - ring basis, and the profit of ethylene - based PVC increased by 48 yuan/ton to - 235 yuan/ton on a ring - on - ring basis [3].