瑞达期货沪锡产业日报-20260319

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The macro - environment shows that the energy infrastructure in the Middle East has been attacked, the US PPI in February far exceeded expectations, and Powell sent a hawkish signal. The market expects a 50% probability of a rate cut this year. Fundamentally, on the supply side, the resumption of production in Myanmar and the end of the rainy season are expected to increase the domestic tin ore imports, and the tin ore supply shortage is showing signs of relief. On the smelting side, the refined tin output will gradually recover, but most enterprises' raw material inventory is still low, affecting the refined tin output. In terms of imports, the import pressure is increasing. On the demand side, the development of the AI field will drive the demand for solder. Recently, the tin price has declined, the spot premium is over 2,500 yuan/ton, and the downstream purchasing atmosphere has heated up. Technically, the position increment is under pressure to decline, and the short - selling sentiment is strong. It is expected that Shanghai tin will be weakly adjusted, and attention should be paid to whether it can stabilize between 330,000 - 340,000 yuan/ton [3][4] 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai tin futures main contract is 345,730 yuan/ton, a decrease of 24,270 yuan; the closing price of the May - June contract is - 980 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,200 yuan. The LME 3 - month tin price is 45,345 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1,505 US dollars. The main contract position of Shanghai tin is 29,801 lots, a decrease of 996 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures is - 8,049 lots, an increase of 1,574 lots. The LME tin total inventory is 8,965 tons, an increase of 220 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin is 12,514 tons, an increase of 851 tons. The LME tin cancelled warrants are 510 tons, an increase of 50 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange tin warrants are 10,275 tons, a decrease of 1,037 tons [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 355,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 13,700 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 355,010 yuan/ton, a decrease of 13,250 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai tin main contract is - 500 yuan/ton, an increase of 4,060 yuan. The LME tin premium (0 - 3) is - 213 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 10 US dollars [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 17,600 tons, an increase of 2,500 tons. The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 353,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,050 yuan; the processing fee is 16,000 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of 60% tin concentrate is 357,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,050 yuan; the processing fee is 12,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, a decrease of 1,600 tons. The monthly import volume of refined tin is 2,239.1 tons, an increase of 323.25 tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 226,650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7,890 yuan. The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 1,528,700 tons, an increase of 138,700 tons. The monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 142,900 tons, a decrease of 45,000 tons [3] 3.6 Industry News - Trump said that his visit to China may be postponed by five to six weeks, and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded that head - of - state diplomacy plays an irreplaceable leading role in Sino - US relations, and the two sides will continue to communicate on President Trump's visit to China. The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged as expected, pointed out the uncertainty of the Middle East impact, raised the inflation forecast, and still expected one rate cut this year. Powell said that there will be no rate cut until inflation improves, and he will not leave the Federal Reserve during the investigation and will serve as the interim chairman if necessary. Iran launched a large - scale missile attack on US - related energy facilities, listing targets in three Middle Eastern countries, and Trump allegedly does not want to attack such facilities again for the time being [3]