瑞达期货合成橡胶产业日报-20260319

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - This week, the inventory of production enterprises decreased, and there is still a possibility of further reduction in short - term inventory. The start - up rate of domestic tire enterprises increased slightly week - on - week. Semi - steel tire enterprises are focusing on fulfilling foreign trade orders, and the tight supply of domestic sales keeps the capacity utilization rate at a high level. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire enterprises increased slightly, with concentrated shipments and obvious shortage of goods, supporting the overall capacity utilization rate. At the end of the quarter, the start - up rate is expected to remain high, but individual enterprises may flexibly adjust production schedules. Due to the uncertainty of the US - Iran geopolitical conflict, the synthetic rubber futures price is expected to fluctuate sharply in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 15,540 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 280 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract is 63,800, with a week - on - week decrease of 2,574. The 5 - 6 spread of synthetic rubber is 220 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 30 yuan/ton. The total number of warehouse receipts for butadiene rubber is 22,990 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 30 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong is 15,300 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 200 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of BR9000 from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong and Shanghai is 15,300 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 200 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of BR9000 from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong is 15,450 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 50 yuan/ton. The basis of synthetic rubber is - 140 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 280 yuan/ton. Brent crude oil is 107.38 US dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 3.96 US dollars/barrel; Naphtha CFR Japan is 1,039.25 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 7.25 US dollars/ton. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 1,280 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 30 US dollars/ton; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 2,100 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 50 US dollars/ton. WTI crude oil is 96.32 US dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 0.11 US dollars/barrel; the market price of butadiene in Shandong is 14,800 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 50 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The weekly capacity of butadiene is 159,300 tons, with no change; the capacity utilization rate of butadiene is 72.7%, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.58 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene is 31,000 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 8,100 tons; the start - up rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 54.29%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.52 percentage points. The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber is 149,900 tons, with an increase of 6,300 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber is 79.98%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.64 percentage points. The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber is - 2,296 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 872 yuan/ton; the weekly social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 44,400 tons, with an increase of 1,000 tons. The weekly manufacturer inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 950 tons, and the weekly trader inventory is 9,080 tons, with an increase of 60 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 1.271 million pieces, with a decrease of 150,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 5.968 million pieces, with an increase of 129,000 pieces. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 43.91 days, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.88 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 43.84 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.74 days. As of March 19, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 79.32%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.59 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.05 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises is 72.21%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.41 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.31 percentage points [2]. 3.5 Industry News - In February 2026, China's heavy - truck market sold about 75,000 vehicles (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), a nearly 30% decrease from January 2025 and an about 8% decrease from the 81,400 vehicles in the same period of the previous year. From January to February 2026, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck industry exceeded 180,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 17%. The double - decline in February 2026 is mainly due to the seasonal fluctuations of the Spring Festival month. As of March 18, the inventory of domestic cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises is 42,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.10% (0.18 tons). During the period, the production of cis - butadiene rubber was affected by the tight supply and sharp price increase of raw materials, resulting in large losses for production enterprises. Some device loads decreased or were about to be overhauled, leading to a tight supply of salable goods and a decrease in the inventory of sample production enterprises [2].