瑞达期货甲醇产业日报-20260319

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the report [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - The methanol port inventory continues to decline. Although there are some re - exports at the ports recently, the coastal methanol sales are poor. Some storage areas or pick - up volumes remain low, and the visible foreign vessel arrivals are few. The short - term port methanol inventory is expected to continue to fall. Attention should be paid to the impact of pick - up volume changes and geopolitical situations on supply expectations [3] - The domestic methanol - to - olefins plant capacity utilization rate has increased this week. With the normal operation of restarted and load - increased plants, the MTO industry's operating rate is expected to increase slightly [3] - Due to the uncertainty of the US - Iran geopolitical conflict, the short - term methanol price is expected to fluctuate sharply. It is recommended to wait and see for now [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 3182 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 270 yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 spread of methanol is 247 yuan/ton, up 54 yuan/ton week - on - week [3] - The main contract's open interest of methanol is 630,637 lots, an increase of 18,908 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of methanol is 183 lots, a decrease of 17,400 lots [3] - The number of methanol warehouse receipts is 8,709, a decrease of 2408 [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang is 3110 yuan/ton, up 230 yuan/ton week - on - week. The price in Inner Mongolia is 2242.5 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton [3] - The price difference between East China and Northwest China is 637.5 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton. The basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract is - 72 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton [3] - The CFR price of methanol at the main Chinese port is 366 US dollars/ton, up 11 US dollars/ton. The CFR price in Southeast Asia is 510 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3] - The FOB price in Rotterdam is 399 euros/ton, up 9 euros/ton. The price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia is - 144 US dollars/ton, up 11 US dollars/ton [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 3.2 US dollars/million British thermal units, up 0.16 US dollars [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports is 94.52 million tons, a decrease of 2.76 million tons. The inventory at South China ports is 31.65 million tons, a decrease of 2.35 million tons [3] - The methanol import profit is - 116.29 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.88 yuan/ton. The monthly import volume is 173.4 million tons, an increase of 31.64 million tons [3] - The inventory of inland enterprises is 485,400 tons, a decrease of 37,700 tons. The operating rate of methanol enterprises is 90.15%, a decrease of 1.5% [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde is 37.6%, an increase of 8.88%. The operating rate of dimethyl ether is 4.13%, an increase of 1.28% [3] - The operating rate of acetic acid is 85.4%, an increase of 1.29%. The operating rate of MTBE is 68.94%, an increase of 1.22% [3] - The operating rate of olefins is 84.08%, unchanged. The on - paper profit of methanol - to - olefins is - 1188 yuan/ton, a decrease of 280 yuan/ton [3] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 75.38%, an increase of 4.77%. The 40 - day historical volatility is 57.08%, an increase of 3.87% [3] - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for methanol is 65.72%, a decrease of 0.45%. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 65.71%, a decrease of 0.47% [3] 3.7 Industry News - As of March 18, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 48.54 million tons, a decrease of 3.77 million tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 7.21%. The pending orders of sample enterprises were 27.93 million tons, an increase of 1.40 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.26% [3] - As of March 18, the total methanol port inventory in China was 126.17 million tons, a decrease of 5.11 million tons from the previous period. East China and South China ports both had inventory reductions. The visible foreign vessel unloading volume was 13.1 million tons and all were unloaded in East China [3] - As of March 19, the domestic methanol - to - olefins plant capacity utilization rate was 85.57%, a week - on - week increase of 3.08%. The restart of Yanchang Yulin Zhongmei Phase II plant and the load increase of Tianjin Bohua led to the increase in the industry's operating rate [3]