瑞达期货沪锌产业日报-20260319

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The report anticipates that Shanghai zinc will fluctuate weakly and suggests paying attention to the support at the 22,400 yuan/ton level [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract is 22,690 yuan/ton, down 635 yuan; the 05 - 06 month contract spread of Shanghai zinc is -25 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan [3] - The LME three - month zinc quotation is 3,132.5 US dollars/ton, down 100.5 US dollars; the total position of Shanghai zinc is 209,707 lots, up 3,983 lots [3] - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is -3,672 lots, down 1,813 lots; the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt is 0 tons, unchanged [3] - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 147,348 tons, up 12,427 tons; the LME inventory is 118,025 tons, down 350 tons [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,820 yuan/ton, down 380 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 22,090 yuan/ton, down 330 yuan [3] - The basis of the ZN main contract is 130 yuan/ton, up 255 yuan; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is -41.47 US dollars/ton, up 6.7 US dollars [3] - The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 20,070 yuan/ton, down 470 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 16,000 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is -35,700 tons, down 14,700 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is -7,700 tons, down 4,900 tons [3] - The global zinc mine production of ILZSG is 1.0627 million tons, down 11,900 tons; the domestic refined zinc production is 675,000 tons, up 21,000 tons [3] - The zinc ore import volume is 462,600 tons, down 53,900 tons [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 8,760.85 tons, down 9,469.07 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 27,266.66 tons, down 15,548.89 tons [3] - The social inventory of zinc is 236,000 tons, up 4,700 tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The production of galvanized sheets is 2.36 million tons, up 20,000 tons; the sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.36 million tons, down 60,000 tons [3] - The new housing construction area is 587.6996 million square meters, up 53.1326 million square meters; the housing completion area is 603.4813 million square meters, up 208.942 million square meters [3] - The automobile production is 3.4115 million vehicles, down 107,500 vehicles; the air - conditioner production is 21.6289 million units, up 6.6029 million units [3] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of the zinc at - the - money call option is 22.68%, down 0.08%; the 20 - day historical volatility of the zinc at - the - money option is 21.39%, down 0.28% [3] - The implied volatility of the zinc at - the - money put option is 22.68%, down 0.08%; the 60 - day historical volatility of the zinc at - the - money option is 20.01%, down 0.43% [3] 3.7 Industry News - Trump said that his visit to China might be postponed by five to six weeks, and the Foreign Ministry responded that the head - of - state diplomacy plays an irreplaceable leading role in Sino - US relations, and the two sides will continue to communicate on this matter [3] - The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged as expected, pointed out the uncertainty of the Middle East situation, raised the inflation forecast, and still expected to cut interest rates once this year. Powell said that there will be no rate cut before inflation improves, and he will not leave the Fed during the investigation and will serve as the interim chairman if necessary. The "New Fed Wire" said that the Iran war threat may force the Fed to extend its fight against inflation [3] - Iran launched a large - scale missile attack on US - related energy facilities, targeting three Middle Eastern countries. Trump allegedly does not want to attack such facilities again for the time being. Part of Iran's largest gas field was shut down, which was the first time since the conflict broke out. The US military plans to mass - produce Iranian suicide drones. Trump said he is not ready to end the conflict and is not worried about Iran becoming "another Vietnam" [3]