瑞达期货天然橡胶产业日报-20260319

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic Yunnan rubber - producing area is steadily advancing the tapping process, and new domestic rubber is gradually entering the market. Overseas natural rubber - producing areas are in the low - production season. Recently, the bonded warehouses at Qingdao Port have continued to accumulate inventory, while the general trade warehouses have reduced inventory, resulting in a slight reduction in the total inventory. The arrival of US - dollar standard rubber at the port remains at a low level, and tire enterprises' production has recovered to a high level. They replenish raw materials at low prices, and the outbound volume of general trade warehouses is greater than the inbound volume. It is expected that the inventory will continue to decline slightly in the short term. This week, the operating rate of domestic tire enterprises has rebounded slightly. Semi - steel tire enterprises are mainly focused on fulfilling foreign trade orders, and with the tight supply of domestic sales, their capacity utilization rate remains at a high level. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire enterprises has increased slightly. Driven by price - increase news, the enterprises' shipments are concentrated, and there is an obvious shortage of goods, which supports the overall capacity utilization rate. Entering the end of the quarter, some enterprises are expected to maintain a high operating rate to complete quarterly tasks, but individual enterprises may flexibly adjust production schedules. The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16,000 - 16,500 in the short term, and the nr2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,850 - 13,300 in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is 16,090 yuan/ton, a decrease of 310 yuan; the closing price of the main contract of 20 - number rubber is 12,925 yuan/ton, a decrease of 180 yuan. The 5 - 9 spread of Shanghai rubber is 60 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan; the 5 - 6 spread of 20 - number rubber is - 85 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 3,165 yuan/ton, a decrease of 130 yuan. The position of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is 117,267 lots, a decrease of 9,905 lots; the position of the main contract of 20 - number rubber is 60,014 lots, a decrease of 1,123 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 35,960 lots, an increase of 6,154 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 7,842 lots, an increase of 136 lots. The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange are 125,440 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber in the exchange are 48,787 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 16,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 250 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 16,550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 400 yuan. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 15,300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 300 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 15,250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 300 yuan. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 16,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 15,800 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 90 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan; the basis of non - standard products of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is - 1,100 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 13,541 yuan/ton, a decrease of 251 yuan; the basis of the main contract of 20 - number rubber is 616 yuan/ton, a decrease of 71 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) is 75.2 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.9 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) is 70 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.45 Thai baht. The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) is 73.5 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.5 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup rubber) is 52.95 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.85 Thai baht. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 138.6 US dollars/ton, an increase of 13.6 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is - 13 US dollars/ton, an increase of 4 US dollars. The monthly import volume of technically - classified natural rubber is 199,300 tons, an increase of 30,500 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 396,300 tons, an increase of 94,100 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of all - steel tires is 70.22%, an increase of 4.32 percentage points; the operating rate of semi - steel tires is 77.71%, an increase of 3.68 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period are 43.91 days, a decrease of 1.88 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period are 43.84 days, an increase of 0.74 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 12.71 million pieces, a decrease of 150,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 59.68 million pieces, an increase of 1.29 million pieces [2] 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 25.05%, an increase of 0.29 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 23.23%, an increase of 0.35 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 29.46%, a decrease of 2.41 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 29.46%, a decrease of 2.4 percentage points [2] 3.6 Industry News - In February 2026, China's heavy - truck market sold about 75,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a nearly 30% decrease from January 2025 and an about 8% decrease from 81,400 vehicles in the same period of the previous year. From January to February this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck industry exceeded 180,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 17%. The reason for the year - on - year and month - on - month decline in the heavy - truck industry in February 2026 is mainly the seasonal fluctuations during the Spring Festival month. As of March 15, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao is 677,600 tons, a decrease of 2,800 tons from the previous period, a decline of 0.42%. The bonded area inventory is 121,300 tons, an increase of 1.43%; the general trade inventory is 556,300 tons, a decline of 0.81%. The inbound rate of the sample bonded warehouses of natural rubber in Qingdao has increased by 1.71 percentage points, and the outbound rate has increased by 1.71 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses has increased by 1.37 percentage points, and the outbound rate has increased by 2.22 percentage points. As of March 19, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 79.32%, a month - on - month increase of 0.59 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.05 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises is 72.21%, a month - on - month increase of 0.41 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.31 percentage points [2]