铂钯金期货日报-20260319

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoint - In the short - term, the platinum market is expected to continue wide - range volatile trading due to the game between inflation support and interest rate suppression. However, the long - term bullish logic for platinum remains intact considering supply contraction and a structural supply - demand gap. Palladium's performance is relatively pressured by supply - demand loosening expectations, and its subsequent trend may be macro - driven and follow platinum prices. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and consider buying on dips after sufficient corrections [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs a. Market Data - Futures Market: Platinum's main contract closing price is 548.00 yuan/gram, down 6.55 yuan; palladium's is 402.80 yuan/gram, down 7.10 yuan. Platinum's main contract open interest is 10387.00 lots, down 277.00 lots; palladium's is 3179.00 lots, up 90.00 lots [2] - Spot Market: The Shanghai Gold Exchange's platinum spot price (Pt9995) is 540.95 yuan/gram, down 7.98 yuan; the Yangtze River palladium spot average price is 380.00 yuan/gram, down 8.00 yuan. Platinum's main contract basis is - 7.05 yuan/gram, down 1.43 yuan; palladium's is - 22.80 yuan/gram, down 0.90 yuan [2] - Supply - Demand Situation: Platinum's CFTC non - commercial long positions are 9966.00 contracts, down 243.00 contracts; palladium's are 3003.00 contracts, down 342.00 contracts. The estimated total annual supply of platinum in 2025 is 220.40 tons, down 0.80 tons; that of palladium is 293.00 tons, down 5.00 tons. The estimated total annual demand for platinum in 2025 is 261.60 tons, up 25.60 tons; that of palladium is 287.00 tons, down 27.00 tons [2] - Macro Data: The US dollar index is 99.56, down 0.24; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 1.83%, down 0.04%. The VIX volatility index is 22.37, down 1.14 [2] b. Industry News - The Fed kept the federal funds rate target range at 3.50% - 3.75%, signaling only one rate cut in 2026 - 2027, with a more conservative rate - cut path [2] - The Fed raised inflation and economic growth expectations, and Fed Chairman Powell denied the US economy was in stagflation [2] - US President Trump considered further actions against the Iranian regime and authorized a 60 - day temporary exemption of the "Jones Act" to reduce domestic transportation costs of commodities [2] - US February PPI rose 0.7% month - on - month, far exceeding the expected 0.3%, and 3.4% year - on - year, a one - year high [2] - According to CME "FedWatch", the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut by the Fed in April is 0%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 100%. The probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut by June is 11.2%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 88.8%. The probability of keeping rates unchanged by July is 77.4% [2] c. Market Performance - During today's trading session, the main platinum and palladium contracts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange tumbled following gold and silver prices. The platinum 2606 contract fell 7.66% to 506.95 yuan/gram, and the palladium 2606 contract fell 8.18% to 371.45 yuan/gram [2] d. Key Points to Watch - On March 19, 20:30, the number of initial jobless claims in the US; 22:00, the annualized total of new home sales in the US in January, the monthly rate of wholesale sales in the US in January, and the monthly rate of the Conference Board Leading Index in the US in February [2]