LPG早报-20260320

Group 1 - The investment rating of the report is not provided [1] Group 2 - The report's core view is that the LPG market had significant fluctuations and a rising center last week, mainly following oil prices. The basis fluctuated sharply, and the 4 - 5 month spread was positive. The key factor for the future is when the Strait of Hormuz will resume traffic, and short - term spot quotes depend on international oil prices. A shortage of LPG is likely in April in China, more severe in East and South China than in Shandong. The short - term futures price may continue to follow oil prices, and the month spread will be strong [1] Group 3 Daily Quotes - On March 19, the PG2604 contract closed at 6392 (+626) at 3 pm, with a 4 - 5 month spread of 109 (+13) and 1800 (+0) warehouse receipts. The night session closed at 6660 (+449), with a 4 - 5 month spread of 8 (-101). Shandong's civil LPG continued to rise, with a mainstream transaction of 5600 - 5850 yuan/ton. Shandong's ether - post LPG was 5810 (+300). Longkou Port's propane price was 7200 (+0), and Shandong's propane - propylene price was 8525 (+480). The East China market was stable with some individual increases, with a mainstream transaction of 5760 - 6340 yuan/ton [1] Weekly Viewpoints - Last week, the futures price fluctuated greatly and the center rose, mainly following oil prices. The basis rose and fell sharply, with the latest at - 321 (+346), and the 4 - 5 month spread at 132 (+5). There were 3108 (-1544) warehouse receipts. The cheapest deliverable was Shandong's ether - post LPG at 5430 (+280). Shandong's civil LPG was 5550 (+610), and East China's civil LPG was 6159 (+1178). The FEI month spread was 84 US dollars (+27), and the oil - gas price ratio fluctuated downward. The PG - FEI c1 spread was 52.4 (-45). The CIF discount for South China's CP propane was 402 (+30). The FOB discounts for AFEI, US Gulf, and Middle East propane were 104.75 (+12.75), 200.6 (+41.7), and 0 (+0) respectively. The FEI - MOPJ spread was - 126 (-59). The spot profit of PDH strengthened significantly. The port inventory ratio was 35.05% (-5.5pct). The external supply of LPG sample enterprises was 54.4 (-1.8) million tons. The PDH operating rate was 63.23 (-1.7pct) [1]