建信期货棉花日报-20260320

1. Report Information - Reported Industry: Cotton [1] - Date: March 20, 2026 [2] - Researchers: Yulan Lan, Zhenlei Lin, Haifeng Wang, Chenliang Hong, Youran Liu [3] 2. Core Viewpoint - The Zhengzhou cotton futures price is in a short - term shock correction. The supply - demand pattern in the 2026/27 season supports the medium - and long - term price trend. There are opportunities to go long at low prices [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Review: Zhengzhou cotton continued to correct. The latest 328 - grade cotton price index was 16,722 yuan/ton, down 175 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The cotton yarn market had good trading, but downstream orders weakened marginally. The cotton fabric market had stable prices and continuous sales [7]. - Macro and Market Conditions: The Fed kept interest rates unchanged, the dollar index was strong. The international cotton market was in shock correction. After the release of the 3 - million - ton sliding - scale duty processing trade quota, the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton converged. Cotton farmers' enthusiasm for spring plowing was high. From January to February 2026, China imported 380,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year increase of 41%. The downstream finished product inventory decreased, and the production start - up rate increased significantly [8]. - Operation Suggestions: Pay attention to the realization of the expected reduction in cotton planting area in spring plowing, and look for opportunities to go long at low prices [8]. 3.2 Industry News - Import Data: In February 2026, China imported 170,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year increase of 50,000 tons (44.1%); from January to February, the cumulative import was 380,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 110,000 tons (41%). In February 2026, China imported 130,000 tons of cotton yarn, a year - on - year increase of 20,000 tons (13.1%); from January to February, the cumulative import was 290,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 80,000 tons (40.2%) [9]. - Inspection Data: As of March 18, 2026, 1,100 cotton processing enterprises had processed and inspected 7.5762 million tons of cotton, a year - on - year increase of 12.1%, including 7.4736 million tons in Xinjiang and 64,000 tons in inland areas [9]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the China Cotton Price Index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, price spreads between different contract months, cotton commercial inventory, cotton industrial inventory, warehouse receipt volume, and exchange rates of the US dollar against the RMB and the Indian rupee [16][17][18][20][27][29]