大越期货沪锌期货早报-20260320

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term trend of Shanghai zinc may be weak in oscillation. Technically, the price is below the moving - average system, the short - term indicators KDJ are declining and in the weak area with increased oversold condition, and the trend indicator shows that the long - position strength is decreasing while the short - position strength is increasing. However, the operation suggestion for Shanghai zinc ZN2605 is an oscillatory rebound [18]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals - In November 2025, global zinc plate production was 1.197 million tons, consumption was 1.168 million tons, with a supply surplus of 29,000 tons. From January to November, global zinc plate production was 12.7561 million tons, consumption was 13.1065 million tons, with a supply shortage of 350,400 tons. In November, global zinc ore production was 1.069 million tons, and from January to November, it was 12.1419 million tons [2]. 3.2 Basis - The spot price is 22,880, and the basis is +175, showing a bullish signal [2]. 3.3 Inventory - On March 19, LME zinc inventory decreased by 175 tons to 117,850 tons, and SHFE zinc inventory warrants increased by 1,341 tons to 102,604 tons [2]. 3.4 Disk - The previous day, Shanghai zinc showed an oscillatory downward trend, closing below the 20 - day moving average, with the 20 - day moving average downward, indicating a bearish signal [2]. 3.5 Main Positions - The main players have a net long position, and long positions are increasing, showing a bullish signal [2]. 3.6 Futures Exchange Zinc Futures Quotes on March 19 - The trading volume of zinc futures on March 19 was 269,018 lots, with a turnover of 3.08416055 billion yuan, and the open interest was 209,707 lots, an increase of 3,983 lots [3]. 3.7 Domestic Main Spot Market Quotes on March 19 - The domestic zinc concentrate current TC was 1,500 yuan/metal ton for domestic products and 20 dollars/thousand tons for imported products. The price of 0 zinc in Shanghai was 22,830 - 22,930 yuan/ton, in Guangdong was 22,760 - 22,860 yuan/ton, in Tianjin was 22,825 - 22,925 yuan/ton, and in Zhejiang was 22,825 - 22,925 yuan/ton, with price drops [4]. 3.8 National Main Market Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics (2025/3/9 - 2026/3/19) - On March 19, 2026, the total inventory of zinc ingots in main markets was 229,000 tons, a decrease of 21,000 tons compared to March 12 and a decrease of 72,000 tons compared to March 16 [5]. 3.9 Zinc Warrant Report of Futures Exchange on March 19 - The total zinc warrants on March 19 were 102,604 tons, an increase of 1,341 tons. The warrants in Shanghai decreased by 74 tons, in Guangdong decreased by 400 tons, and in Tianjin increased by 1,815 tons [6]. 3.10 LME Zinc Inventory Distribution and Statistics on March 19 - The total LME zinc inventory on March 19 was 117,850 tons, a decrease of 175 tons [7]. 3.11 National Main City Zinc Concentrate Price Summary on March 19 - The price of 50% - grade zinc concentrate in most regions was 19,740 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 310 yuan/ton, and in some regions like Hechi and Chifeng, it was 19,640 yuan/ton [9]. 3.12 National Market Zinc Ingot Smelter Price Quotes on March 19 - The price of 0 zinc ingots from various smelters decreased by 380 yuan/ton [12]. 3.13 Domestic Refined Zinc Production in February 2026 - The planned production in February was 468,700 tons, the actual production was 470,900 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.72% and a year - on - year increase of 10.01%. The planned production in March is 490,200 tons [14]. 3.14 Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee Quotes on March 19 - The processing fee for domestic 50% - grade zinc concentrate was mostly between 1,400 - 1,600 yuan/metal ton, and for imported 48% - grade zinc concentrate, it was 20 dollars/thousand tons [16]. 3.15 Shanghai Futures Exchange Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking Table on March 19 - The total trading volume of members was 190,642 lots, an increase of 52,921 lots. The total long - position volume was 70,816 lots, an increase of 6,500 lots, and the total short - position volume was 70,853 lots, an increase of 6,584 lots [17].