大越期货燃料油早报-20260320

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The low - sulfur fuel oil market is currently tighter than the high - sulfur market, with a much higher spread for low - sulfur fuel oil. The volume of arbitrage cargoes from the West in March is expected to be less than in February, and the April arrivals may be even lower than in March [3]. - The high - sulfur fuel oil East - West near - month spread has soared to its widest level in six years, highlighting the growing gap between the weak European market and the strengthening Asia - Pacific market. Overnight oil prices fluctuated greatly, and the US continued to release easing signals, temporarily exempting Iranian and Russian crude oil, which short - term suppresses oil prices, and fuel oil follows the adjustment. FU2605 is expected to operate in the range of 4650 - 4850, and LU2605 in the range of 5700 - 5900 [3]. - The market is driven by the resonance of supply affected by geopolitical risks and neutral demand, with potential risks including a rapid cease - fire in the Middle East [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints - The high - sulfur fuel oil's East - West near - month spread has reached a six - year high. Overnight oil price fluctuations and US policies suppress oil prices in the short - term. FU2605 is expected to trade between 4650 - 4850, and LU2605 between 5700 - 5900 [3]. 2. Long and Short Concerns - Likely to be bullish: The low - sulfur fuel oil market is tight, with less Western arbitrage cargoes expected; the basis shows a spot premium over futures; the price is above the 20 - day line; the low - sulfur main position is long (although long positions are decreasing) [3]. - Likely to be bearish: The high - sulfur main position is short (although short positions are decreasing); Trump's government's TACO situation and upstream crude oil pressure [3][4]. 3. Fundamental Data - Supply: A Singapore - based trader said the low - sulfur fuel oil market is tighter, and the volume of Western arbitrage cargoes is expected to decline [3]. - Basis: The basis of Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil is 451 yuan/ton, and that of low - sulfur fuel oil is 813 yuan/ton, with spot premiums over futures [3]. - Inventory: Singapore's fuel oil inventory on March 18 was 2486.9 million barrels, an increase of 37 million barrels [3]. - Market trend: The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward [3]. - Main positions: High - sulfur main positions are short (short positions decreasing), and low - sulfur main positions are long (long positions decreasing) [3]. 4. Spread Data - Futures price changes: The FU main contract futures price increased from 4687 to 4969, a 6.02% increase; the LU main contract futures price increased from 5586 to 6097, a 9.15% increase. The FU basis decreased by 23.48% to 451, and the LU basis decreased by 42% to 813 [5]. - Spot price changes: The prices of various types of fuel oil and diesel in different regions all increased to varying degrees, with the Middle - East high - sulfur fuel oil having the highest increase rate of 5.65% [6]. 5. Inventory Data - Singapore fuel oil inventory has fluctuated over time, with an inventory of 2486.9 million barrels on March 18, an increase of 37 million barrels compared to the previous period [7].