大越期货焦煤焦炭早报-20260320

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For coking coal, the supply side remains in a loose pattern, and the market sentiment is still optimistic. The total sample inventory decreased by 243 tons last week. With the improvement of terminal profits, some steel mills are implementing复产 plans, but the downstream's willingness to replenish inventory at high prices is not high. It is expected that the coking coal price will remain stable in the short term [3][4]. - For coke, the cost of coking enterprises has increased, but the production level has not been significantly affected. The inventory of coking enterprises is decreasing. The steel mills' procurement demand is good, and the iron - water production is increasing. It is expected that the coke price will be stable and slightly strong in the short term [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - Coking Coal - Fundamentals: The production of main - producing area coal mines is stable, and the supply side's loose pattern remains unchanged. The market trading activity has increased, and the price has more increases than decreases, with a neutral outlook [4]. - Basis: The spot market price is 1240, and the basis is 80.5, with the spot at a premium to the futures, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - Inventory: The steel mill inventory is 820 tons, the port inventory is 258 tons, the independent coking enterprise inventory is 893 tons, and the total sample inventory is 1971 tons, a decrease of 243 tons compared to last week, which is bullish [3]. - Disk: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line, a bullish sign [4]. - Main Position: The main net long position of coking coal has increased, which is bullish [4]. - Expectation: With the improvement of terminal profits, some steel mills are implementing复产 plans, and the market demand is gradually improving. However, the sentiment of coking coal and coke has declined recently, and the downstream's willingness to replenish inventory at high prices is not high. It is expected that the coking coal price will remain stable in the short term [3]. - Factors: Bullish factors include the increase in iron - water production and the difficulty of supply increase; bearish factors include the slowdown of raw coal procurement by coking and steel enterprises and the weak steel price [6]. Daily View - Coke - Fundamentals: The coking coal price has been rising slightly, increasing the cost of coking enterprises and compressing profit margins. However, the production level has not been significantly affected, and the supply is relatively stable. The steel mills' procurement demand is good, and the inventory of coking enterprises is decreasing, with a neutral outlook [7]. - Basis: The spot market price is 1620, and the basis is - 101, with the spot at a discount to the futures, indicating a bearish signal [7]. - Inventory: The steel mill inventory is 689 tons, the port inventory is 199 tons, the independent coking enterprise inventory is 56 tons, and the total sample inventory is 944 tons, a decrease of 3 tons compared to last week, which is bullish [7]. - Disk: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line, a bullish sign [7]. - Main Position: The main net long position of coke has decreased, but still bullish [7]. - Expectation: The steel sales situation has improved, the steel mills' profitability has recovered slightly, and the iron - water production is increasing. The current supply - demand of coke is relatively balanced, and it is expected that the coke price will be stable and slightly strong in the short term [7]. - Factors: Bullish factors include the increase in iron - water production and the synchronous increase in blast furnace operating rate; bearish factors include the compression of steel mills' profit margins and the partial overdraft of replenishment demand [9]. Price - Coking Coal Price: On March 19, 2026, the prices of various imported coking coal varieties at different ports are provided, such as the price of K4 main coking coal at Caofeidian Port and Jingtang Port is 1350 [10]. - Coke Price: On March 19, 2026, the prices of various port metallurgical coke varieties are provided, such as the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke from Shanxi at Rizhao Port is 1470 [11]. Inventory - Port Inventory: The coking coal port inventory is 258 tons, unchanged from last week; the coke port inventory is 199 tons, a decrease of 6 tons compared to last week [21]. - Independent Coking Enterprise Inventory: The coking coal inventory of independent coking enterprises is 893 tons, a decrease of 225 tons compared to last week; the coke inventory is 56 tons, an increase of 12 tons compared to last week [25]. - Steel Mill Inventory: The coking coal inventory of steel mills is 820 tons, a decrease of 18 tons compared to last week; the coke inventory is 689 tons, a decrease of 9 tons compared to last week [30].