大越期货沪铝早报-20260320

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals are neutral with carbon neutrality controlling capacity expansion, upcoming domestic supply ceiling, weak downstream demand, and volatile short - term macro sentiment. The basis shows a premium over futures, which is bullish. The inventory situation is neutral, the盘面 shows a neutral signal, and the main position is net long with an increase in long positions, indicating a bullish sign. In the long - term, carbon neutrality will drive the transformation of the aluminum industry and is bullish for aluminum prices. Overall, aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Daily View - Fundamentals: Carbon neutrality controls capacity expansion, domestic supply nears the ceiling, downstream demand is weak, and macro sentiment is volatile in the short - term, rated as neutral [2]. - Basis: Spot price is 24490, basis is 310, showing a premium over futures, rated as bullish [2]. - Inventory: SHFE aluminum inventory increased by 21927 tons to 416425 tons compared to last week, rated as neutral [2]. - Disk: The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average while the 20 - day moving average is upward, rated as neutral [2]. - Main Position: The main net position is long and long positions increased, rated as bullish [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis -利多Factors: Carbon neutrality controls capacity expansion, geopolitical disturbances between Russia and Ukraine affect Russian aluminum supply, and there is a possibility of interest rate cuts [3]. -利空Factors: The global economy is not optimistic, high aluminum prices will suppress downstream consumption, and the export tax rebate for aluminum products has been cancelled [3]. - Logic: There is a game between interest rate cuts and weak demand [3]. Daily汇总 - Spot price: Shanghai yesterday's spot middle price was 70770, down 375; Nanchu was 70690, down 450; Yangtze River today's Shanghai price was 70870, down 400 [4]. - Inventory: Warehouse receipts totaled 70798 tons, an increase of 699 tons; LME inventory (daily) was 74750 tons, down 425 tons; SHFE inventory (daily) was 136300 tons, an increase of 29728 tons [4]. Supply - Demand Balance - The supply - demand balance of aluminum in China from 2018 - 2024 shows different situations. In 2018 - 2023, there was a supply shortage in most years, while in 2024, there is an expected supply surplus of 150,000 tons [23].