大越期货油脂早报-20260320

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The overall trend of oil prices is expected to be oscillating and slightly bullish. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic oil supply is stable. Sino-US relations are stalemated, which puts pressure on the price of new US soybeans. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and the demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The soaring international crude oil price drives up the oil price. The domestic oil fundamentals are neutral, and the import inventory is stable [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Viewpoints Soybean Oil - Fundamentals: The MPOB report shows that the production of Malaysian palm oil in December decreased by 5.46% month-on-month to 1.8298 million tons, exports increased by 8.55% month-on-month to 1.3165 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory increased by 7.59% month-on-month to 3.0506 million tons. The report is slightly bearish, and the inventory data exceeded expectations. Currently, the shipping survey agency shows that the export data of Malaysian palm oil in January has increased by 29% month-on-month. Entering the production reduction season, the supply pressure of palm oil decreases. Neutral [2] - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,770, with a basis of 154, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. Bullish [2] - Inventory: On January 9, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.02 million tons, compared with 1.08 million tons previously, a month-on-month decrease of 60,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 14.7%. Bearish [2] - Market Chart: The futures price is running above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward. Bullish [2] - Main Position: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract decreased. Bullish [2] - Expectation: The soybean oil Y2605 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 8,400 - 8,800 [2] Palm Oil - Fundamentals: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is slightly bearish, and the inventory data exceeded expectations. The export data in January increased by 29% month-on-month, and the supply pressure decreases in the production reduction season. Neutral [3] - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 9,678, with a basis of 118, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price. Bearish [3] - Inventory: On January 9, the port inventory of palm oil was 736,000 tons, compared with 733,800 tons previously, a month-on-month increase of 2,200 tons and a year-on-year increase of 46%. Bearish [3] - Market Chart: The futures price is running above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward. Bullish [3] - Main Position: The short positions of the main palm oil contract increased. Bearish [3] - Expectation: The palm oil P2605 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 9,600 - 10,000 [3] Rapeseed Oil - Fundamentals: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report is slightly bearish, and the inventory data exceeded expectations. The export data in January increased by 29% month-on-month, and the supply pressure decreases in the production reduction season. Neutral [4] - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10,310, with a basis of 456, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. Bullish [4] - Inventory: On January 9, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 250,000 tons, compared with 270,000 tons previously, a month-on-month decrease of 20,000 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 44%. Bullish [4] - Market Chart: The futures price is running above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward. Bullish [4] - Main Position: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract increased. Bearish [4] - Expectation: The rapeseed oil OI2605 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 9,600 - 10,000 [4] Recent利多利空Analysis - 利多: The US soybean stock-to-use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. The palm oil production reduction season [5] - 利空: The oil prices are at a relatively high historical level, and the domestic oil inventory has been continuously increasing. The macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of related oils is high [5] - Main Logic: The global oil fundamentals are relatively loose [5]