大越期货沪镍、不锈钢早报-20260320

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - 沪镍: The external market rebounded after a decline. Supply increased in March, domestic inventories continued to accumulate, and the market supply was sufficient. Nickel ore had a strong bullish sentiment, the RKAB policy in Indonesia continued to ferment, and there was a sharp contrast between strong demand in Indonesia and sluggish transactions due to cost inversion in China. The price of ferronickel was weakly stable, and the cost line was firm. Stainless steel inventories continued to decline slightly, and demand was weak. New energy vehicle production and sales data met expectations, with a large month - on - month decline in the off - season. The basis was positive, LME and Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories were negative, the closing price was below the 20 - day moving average with the 20 - day moving average downward, and the main position was net long with a reduction in long positions. Overall, Shanghai Nickel 2605 was expected to operate in a weak and volatile manner [2]. - 不锈钢: The spot price of stainless steel decreased. In the short term, the price of nickel ore was firm, demand in Indonesia was strong, the price of ferronickel was weakly stable, and the cost line had strong support. Stainless steel inventories declined slightly, and demand was weak. The basis was positive, the futures warehouse receipt decreased, the closing price was below the 20 - day moving average with the 20 - day moving average downward. Overall, Stainless Steel 2605 was expected to operate in a weak and volatile manner [4]. Summary by Directory Nickel and Stainless Steel Price Overview - Futures prices: On March 19, compared with March 18, the price of Shanghai Nickel main contract decreased by 3,650 to 131,550; LME Nickel decreased by 95 to 17,095; the Stainless Steel main contract decreased by 165 to 13,855. The nickel index decreased by 750 to 133,300, and the cold - rolled coil index decreased by 56 to 13,507 [10]. - Spot prices: On March 19, compared with March 18, SMM1 electrolytic nickel decreased by 3,100 to 134,900; 1 Jinchuan nickel decreased by 3,050 to 138,300; 1 imported nickel decreased by 3,250 to 131,450; nickel beans decreased by 3,250 to 134,000. The price of cold - rolled 304*2B in Wuxi remained unchanged at 15,100, in Foshan remained unchanged at 14,900, in Hangzhou decreased by 100 to 15,000, and in Shanghai remained unchanged at 15,150 [10]. Nickel Warehouse Receipts and Inventories - As of March 13, the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 63,681 tons, of which the futures inventory was 56,462 tons, an increase of 1,912 tons and 2,894 tons respectively. On March 19, compared with March 18, LME nickel inventory decreased by 180 to 283,770, and the nickel warehouse receipt decreased by 295 to 56,899. The total inventory decreased by 475 to 340,669 [12][13]. Stainless Steel Warehouse Receipts and Inventories - On March 13, the inventory in Wuxi was 610,300 tons, in Foshan was 389,500 tons, and the national inventory was 1,142,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7,500 tons. Among them, the 300 - series inventory was 707,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9,200 tons. On March 19, compared with March 18, the stainless steel warehouse receipt decreased by 12,643 to 40,838 [17][18]. Nickel Ore and Ferronickel Prices - On March 19, compared with March 18, the price of red clay nickel ore CIF (Ni1.5%) remained unchanged at 80 US dollars per wet ton, and the price of red clay nickel ore CIF (Ni0.9%) remained unchanged at 34.5 US dollars per wet ton. The sea freight from the Philippines to Lianyungang and Tianjin Port remained unchanged at 15 and 17 US dollars per ton respectively. The price of high - nickel ferronickel decreased by 3.87 to 1,089.61 yuan per nickel point, and the price of low - nickel ferronickel remained unchanged at 3,675 yuan per ton [20]. Stainless Steel Production Costs - The traditional production cost was 14,153, the scrap steel production cost was 14,065, and the low - nickel + pure nickel production cost was 17,609 [22]. Nickel Import Cost Calculation - The converted import price was 133,274 yuan per ton [25].