广发早知道：汇总版-20260320

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market is significantly affected by geopolitical conflicts, especially the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran, which has led to increased inflation pressure, tightened monetary policies in many countries, and significant fluctuations in the prices of various commodities [12][14][94]. - Different industries show different trends. For example, some industries are under pressure due to supply - demand imbalances and macro - economic factors, while others are supported by cost or demand [2][3][4]. - In the short term, most commodities are expected to maintain a volatile trend, and investors need to pay close attention to geopolitical developments, supply - demand changes, and cost factors [17][22][41]. 3. Summary by Directory Daily Selections - Carbonate Lithium: The market sentiment is dominated by macro factors, and the decline in the futures price has widened. The fundamentals are resilient with both supply and demand increasing. In the short term, it is expected to be weak, with the main contract running in the range of 140,000 - 148,000 yuan [2][41]. - Soda Ash: The supply is at a high level and increasing, while the downstream demand is average. Multiple production lines are planned for maintenance. The futures are expected to be in a weak and volatile pattern, with the range of 1,150 - 1,300 yuan [3][119][122]. - Rebar: The steel price center has risen, and it is necessary to pay attention to the pressure at the previous high. The supply and demand of the five major steel products have both increased, and the inventory has started to be depleted. The price is affected by raw material prices and demand expectations [4][47][49]. - Apples: The inventory reduction is smooth, and the futures price has risen significantly. The production and quality of apples in the 25/26 production season have declined, and the low inventory supports the futures price [5][92][93]. Macro - Finance - Stock Index Futures: The energy sector has risen against the trend, while the overall A - share market has declined. Overseas stagflation risks have suppressed market sentiment. The view is neutral and weakly volatile, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [6][7][8]. - Precious Metals: Geopolitical conflicts have increased inflation pressure, and central banks around the world have turned hawkish. The prices of precious metals have fallen sharply. In the short term, they are expected to be weakly volatile and seek to build a bottom at the low level in early February [9][12]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The conflict between the US and Iran has escalated, and the copper price has been under pressure. The short - term supply is tight at the mine end, the demand is picking up, and the inventory structure has changed. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines and pay attention to the pressure at 97,000 - 98,000 yuan [13][14][17]. - Alumina: Speculative demand has increased, and the spot price has continued to rise. The supply is expected to decrease slightly in March, and the inventory shows a structural differentiation. It is recommended to maintain a short - selling mindset at high prices [17][18][19]. - Aluminum: There are both recession expectations and supply crises, and the internal and external aluminum markets have shown increased differentiation. The short - term price is expected to be in a wide - range volatile pattern, and it is recommended to try long positions lightly [20][21][22]. - Zinc: The interest rate cut path is unclear, and the zinc price has been under pressure. The supply shortage at the mine end has improved, and the demand is relatively stable. The short - term price is expected to be weakly volatile [25][26][28]. - Tin: The situation in the Middle East has been stalemate, and the tin price has continued to fall. The supply has gradually recovered, and the demand is relatively weak. In the short term, it is expected to be weakly volatile, and in the long term, there is a bullish logic [28][31][32]. - Nickel: The macro - sentiment has been significantly adjusted, and the nickel price has weakened rapidly. The supply pressure still exists, and the demand has not improved significantly. It is expected to be in a weakly volatile range [32][33][35]. - Stainless Steel: The macro - sentiment has suppressed the market, and the supply and demand are gradually recovering. The raw material cost is high, and the short - term price is expected to be weakly volatile [35][36][38]. - Carbonate Lithium: The macro - sentiment has dominated the market, and the futures price has fallen significantly. The fundamentals are resilient, but the short - term price is expected to be weak [39][40][41]. - Polysilicon: The spot price has stabilized, and the futures price has fallen significantly due to market sentiment. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand has recovered, but the inventory has continued to accumulate. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [42][43][44]. - Industrial Silicon: The spot price has stabilized, and the futures price has fallen significantly due to market sentiment. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand has shown signs of recovery. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines and pay attention to the cost fluctuations [45][46]. Ferrous Metals - Steel: The steel price has been in a high - level volatile pattern. The supply and demand have both increased, and the inventory has started to be depleted. The price is affected by raw material prices and demand expectations [47][48][49]. - Iron Ore: The macro - disturbance has intensified, and the iron ore price has been supported in the short term. The supply has increased, and the demand has recovered. It is expected to be in a strongly volatile pattern in the short term [51][52]. - Coking Coal: Some coal types have risen, and the price has been affected by geopolitical risks. The supply has gradually recovered, and the demand has increased. It is recommended to go long on the 2605 contract at low prices [53][55][57]. - Coke: The coke price has followed the coking coal and fluctuated. The supply has increased, and the demand has recovered. It is recommended to go long on the 2605 contract at low prices [58][60][62]. - Silicon Iron: The geopolitical conflict has continued, and the supply and demand of silicon iron have both increased. The price is expected to be in a wide - range volatile pattern [64][65][66]. - Manganese Silicon: The market sentiment has been changeable, and the cost of manganese silicon has increased. The supply and demand have both increased, and the price is expected to be in a wide - range and strongly volatile pattern [67][68][69]. Agricultural Products - Meal: The US soybean has stopped falling and rebounded, and the domestic soybean meal is supported by tight supply and demand. The short - term price is expected to be in a high - level volatile pattern [70][71][72]. - Hogs: The hog supply pressure is large, and the price is expected to continue to bottom out. It is necessary to pay attention to the supply reduction [73][74]. - Corn: The spot price has remained stable, and the corn price is expected to be in a volatile pattern. The supply has improved, and the demand is still at a low level [75][77]. - Sugar: The raw sugar price has risen again, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be in a high - level volatile pattern. The supply is relatively abundant, and the demand is affected by policies and energy prices [78][79]. - Cotton: The commodity market has weakened, and the cotton price has continued to adjust. The US cotton is expected to be in a high - level volatile pattern, and the domestic cotton price is supported by demand in the long term [80][81]. - Eggs: The egg supply is stable, and the price is expected to be in a low - level volatile pattern. The inventory is normal, and the demand is average [84]. - Oils and Fats: The geopolitical disturbance has been repeated, and the vegetable oil price has followed the crude oil price. The palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are all in a volatile pattern, and the market is affected by supply, demand, and cost factors [85][86][88]. - Jujubes: The jujube consumption is difficult to improve, and the futures price is expected to be weakly volatile. The supply - demand pattern is loose, and the inventory is high [89][90]. - Apples: The apple inventory reduction is smooth, and the futures price has risen significantly. The production and quality have declined, and the low inventory supports the price [92][93]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: The conflict between the US and Iran has led to a wide - range volatile pattern of oil prices. The supply risk has increased, and the price is expected to be in a pattern of "policy suppression + geopolitical support" in the short term [94][95]. - PX: The cost support is strong, but the downstream negative feedback has dragged down the trend. The supply is expected to decrease, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to protect long positions with put options [97][98]. - PTA: The cost support is strong, but the downstream negative feedback has dragged down the trend. The supply has decreased, and the demand is affected by high - price raw materials. It is recommended to pay attention to the oil price [99][100]. - Short - fiber: The short - fiber has limited self - driving force and follows the raw materials. The price is affected by the oil price and downstream demand [102]. - Bottle Chips: The supply of raw materials is expected to be in short supply, and the bottle chips are expected to be in a tight supply - demand situation. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is expected to follow up [103][104]. - Ethylene Glycol: The Middle East conflict has affected the ethylene glycol, and the near - month inventory reduction is expected to expand. The supply has decreased, and the demand has increased seasonally. It has the potential to rise in the short term [105][106]. - Pure Benzene: The cost support is strong, but the high - level volatility has increased. The supply is expected to decrease, and the demand is expected to improve. It is recommended to protect long positions with put options [107]. - Styrene: The raw material ethylene has risen significantly, and the styrene profit has been significantly compressed. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is expected to slightly reduce the inventory. It follows the oil price [108][109][110]. - LLDPE: The LLDPE maintains a risk - free basis, and the transaction is cold. The supply is expected to shrink, and the demand is gradually recovering. It is in a wide - range volatile pattern [111]. - PP: The upstream parking and load - reduction have increased, and the PP is relatively strong. The supply has shrunk, and the demand has certain resilience. It is recommended to gradually take profits on the 5 - 9 positive spread [112]. - Methanol: Affected by the geopolitical situation, the methanol is relatively strong. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is expected to increase. It is recommended to hold long - position bottom positions [112]. - Caustic Soda: The price of caustic soda is running strongly. The supply has decreased, and the demand has improved. The price is affected by the Middle East situation [114][115]. - PVC: The geopolitical disturbance has brought export expectations, and the PVC price has fluctuated emotionally. The supply and demand have changed slightly, and the price is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short term [116]. - Urea: The commercial storage release and price - stabilizing policies have led to a possible oscillatory callback of the urea price. The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak [118]. - Soda Ash: The supply is at a high level and increasing, and the downstream demand is average. Multiple production lines are planned for maintenance. The futures are expected to be in a weak and volatile pattern [119][122]. - Glass: The downstream demand has recovered slowly, and the glass enterprises are mainly digesting inventory. The supply has decreased, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [121][123]. - Natural Rubber: The situation in the Middle East has been stalemate, and the rubber price is running weakly. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is affected by geopolitical factors [123][124][126]. - Synthetic Rubber: Under the tense situation in the Middle East, the BR is generally supported to run strongly. The cost support is strong, and the demand support still exists [126][127][128]. Container Shipping to Europe - The shipping companies have raised the fuel surcharge, and the offline price has loosened. The futures price is in a wide - range volatile pattern. It is recommended to wait for the market sentiment to cool down and pay attention to the long - position layout opportunities of the peak - season contracts [128][130][131].