大越期货沪铜早报-20260320

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of copper are mixed. Supply - side is disturbed with smelting enterprises reducing production and scrap copper policy being loosened. The February manufacturing PMI dropped 0.3 percentage points to 49.0%, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity. The basis shows a premium of the spot price over the futures price. Copper inventories increased on March 19, and the SHFE copper inventory rose compared to last week. The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average with the 20 - day moving average trending down. The main position is net long with an increase in long positions. Geopolitical disturbances remain, and the copper price hit a new high and is currently oscillating downward at a high level [2] - The global policy is loose and the mine end is in short supply. There are also geopolitical disturbances such as those between Russia - Ukraine and Iran - US - Israel. The Fed may cut interest rates, and the mine production increase is slow with a production cut event in Freeport's Indonesian mining area. On the negative side, the US tariff policy fluctuates, and the global economy is not optimistic, with high copper prices suppressing downstream consumption [3][4] - The supply - demand balance of copper shows a slight surplus in 2024 and a tight balance in 2025 [18] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Viewpoint on Copper - Fundamentals: Supply - side disturbances, smelting production cuts, looser scrap copper policy, and a decline in February manufacturing PMI to 49.0% (down 0.3 ppts from last month), considered positive [2] - Basis: Spot price is 95535, basis is 1115, indicating a premium of the spot over the futures, considered positive [2] - Inventory: On March 19, copper inventory increased by 1325 to 335425 tons, and SHFE copper inventory increased by 8313 tons to 433458 tons compared to last week, considered negative [2] - Disk: The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is trending down, considered negative [2] - Main Position: The main position is net long with an increase in long positions, considered positive [2] - Expectation: Geopolitical disturbances remain, the copper price hit a new high and is currently oscillating downward at a high level. Attention should be paid to Middle - East events [2] Recent利多利空Analysis - 利多Factors: Global policy easing, mine - end tightness, geopolitical disturbances (Russia - Ukraine, Iran - US - Israel), possible Fed rate cuts, slow mine production increase, and a production - cut event in Freeport's Indonesian mining area [3][4] - 利空Factors: Fluctuating US tariff policies and an unoptimistic global economy with high copper prices suppressing downstream consumption [4] Other Aspects - Supply - Demand Balance: In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, it is in a tight balance. The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table shows different supply - demand situations from 2018 - 2024, with a surplus of 110,000 tons in 2024 [18][20] - Inventory: The bonded - area inventory is rising from a low level [12] - Processing Fee: The processing fee is declining [14]