碳酸锂市场周报：宏观风险持续资金动能弱化，盘面宽幅调整-20260320

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate market experienced wide - range fluctuations last week, with the price center moving down. Macro risks persisted, and the trading momentum of funds in the new energy sector weakened. The fundamentals remained in a state of increasing supply and demand. Geopolitical conflicts led to increased market uncertainty, and the previous over - valuation of the lithium carbonate market and the flow of funds to other sectors weakened the trading momentum of the new energy sector. The short - term unilateral driving force of the market is limited, and it will mainly undergo wide - range shock adjustments. The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 148,000 - 162,000 yuan. The recommended strategy is to wait and see and conduct short - term range operations [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Overview - Last week, the lithium carbonate futures market fluctuated widely, with the main contract fluctuating between 150,000 - 165,000 yuan. As of March 13, the main futures contract LC2605 fell 2.61% to 152,080 yuan, and the trading activity decreased. The weighted contract's total open interest was 623,000 lots. In the spot market, as of March 13, the average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate was 159,000 yuan/ton, and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 155,500 yuan/ton, both down about 2.8% week - on - week. The spot price mainly followed the futures market, and there were differences in market sentiment. Downstream buyers increased purchases at low prices but were less accepting of high - priced goods [3]. Macro - Geopolitical conflicts have not shown significant signs of easing. Iran's new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, stated that Iran will continue strategic measures such as blocking the Strait of Hormuz and may open new battlefronts if necessary, increasing the uncertainty risk from overseas geopolitical factors [3]. Supply - Last week, production continued to increase. After the Spring Festival, the planned maintenance of upstream salt plants gradually ended, and most enterprises resumed production, driving up supply. In March, imports from Chile were sufficient to provide some supplementation. As of March 12, the weekly production of SMM lithium carbonate was 22,590 tons, an increase of 768 tons week - on - week. In February, the lithium carbonate production was 83,090 tons, a decrease of 14,810 tons month - on - month but a 35% increase year - on - year. Among them, the production of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 60,930 tons, a decrease of 10,510 tons from the previous month but a 36% increase year - on - year; the production of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 22,160 tons, a decrease of 4,300 tons from the previous month but a 35% increase year - on - year. The production in March is expected to increase to 106,390 tons [3][42]. Demand - The overall demand outlook is optimistic. The power terminal's power - carrying capacity has increased significantly, and leading energy - storage enterprises are basically operating at full capacity. Downstream production schedules remain resilient. With rigid orders, the material production is expected to remain stable. In March, the production schedules of battery cells and materials are expected to increase month - on - month, with a significant increase in lithium iron phosphate and relatively weak performance of ternary materials. In February, the demand for lithium carbonate was 111,503 tons, a decrease of 13,180 tons from the previous month but a 47.5% increase year - on - year. Affected by the holiday in February, the demand in March is expected to increase to 132,845 tons, a month - on - month increase of about 19% [3][72]. Inventory - Last week, the inventory in all links continued to decline, but the decline rate further slowed down. The inventory of upstream smelters decreased, while downstream enterprises continued to replenish inventory last week, and the inventory of battery cell manufacturers and traders decreased overall. As of March 12, the total sample weekly inventory was 98,958 tons, a decrease of 415 tons week - on - week; the smelter inventory was 16,291 tons, the downstream inventory was 45,647 tons, and the inventory in other links was 37,020 tons. As of March 12, the total number of warehouse receipts was 36,455, a decrease of 385 during the week [3][64]. Price - The lithium carbonate futures market fluctuated widely, and the spot market was mainly for rigid - demand purchases. The trade premium and discount remained strong, and the domestic - foreign price difference converged. The raw material price was firm, and the short - term port arrivals decreased. The prices of major materials fluctuated at a high level [4][12][21][29]. Production - The production continued to increase, and the maintenance gradually ended. In March, the production is expected to increase significantly, and the supply in major production areas has recovered. According to SMM, in March, the estimated production of lithium carbonate from spodumene is about 65,400 tons, an increase of 15,200 tons from the previous month; the production of lithium carbonate from mica is expected to be 13,930 tons, an increase of 2,610 tons; the production of lithium carbonate from salt lakes is expected to be 16,440 tons, an increase of 2,500 tons. In terms of regional production, the production in the three major main production areas of Jiangxi, Sichuan, and Qinghai is expected to increase significantly. It is expected that the lithium carbonate production in Jiangxi in March will be 26,680 tons, an increase of 2,460 tons from the previous month; the production in Sichuan is expected to increase by 7,200 tons to 18,200 tons; the production in Qinghai is expected to increase by 1,700 tons to 14,350 tons [35][42][47]. Capacity and Operation - The upstream smelting capacity continued to expand, but the operating rate decreased, and there was a trend of flexible production lines switching to lithium carbonate production. The capacity continued to expand, and the central value of lithium carbonate production has significantly increased. Some new projects are gradually ramping up, driving up the lithium carbonate capacity. Currently, there is limited room for improvement in the operating rate of leading enterprises. Affected by the holiday, the operating rate in February decreased significantly. According to SMM, the monthly lithium carbonate capacity in March is expected to be 157,700 tons, a 0.26% increase from the previous month, and the lithium hydroxide capacity is 52,200 tons, a slight decrease from the previous month. The monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate in February was 48%, a decrease of 8% from the previous month; the operating rate of lithium hydroxide was 38%, a decrease of 5% from the previous month [48][50]. Import - The average monthly import volume of lithium carbonate currently remains around 15,000 - 25,000 tons, and the recent imports are relatively stable. The import structure is relatively stable, and the import regions are still mainly in South American countries such as Chile and Argentina. According to Chile's shipping data, domestic downstream enterprises have a strong willingness to supplement raw materials through imported lithium salts, and the import volume in March may increase significantly. Customs data shows that in December, the total monthly import volume of lithium carbonate was 23,988.66 tons, an increase of 1,933.5 tons from November. In terms of the import country structure, the import data from Argentina and Chile both increased in December. In February, Chile's total lithium salt exports were 33,900 tons of LCE, a 14% decrease month - on - month but a 56% increase year - on - year. The lithium carbonate export volume was 26,800 tons, accounting for 79%, an increase of 21%; the lithium sulfate export volume was 122,100 physical tons; the lithium hydroxide export volume decreased to 942 tons [51][56]. Demand Details - Iron Lithium Production Schedule: Affected by seasonal subsidy cuts, the power terminal data was weak, but the seasonality of lithium iron phosphate was diluted under the support of energy storage. In February, the production of major materials decreased month - on - month due to the holiday. In March, the production schedule of lithium iron phosphate was significantly revised upwards. After the end of the holiday impact on two - wheeled vehicles and 3C consumption, the supply is expected to gradually recover, and the production schedules of cobalt - acid lithium and manganese - acid lithium are expected to increase slightly. According to SMM, the production of lithium iron phosphate in March is expected to be 430,400 tons, an increase of 82,200 tons month - on - month. The monthly production of cobalt - acid lithium in March is expected to be 8,480 tons, an increase of 1,760 tons month - on - month; the production of manganese - acid lithium in March is expected to be 10,310 tons, an increase of 2,490 tons month - on - month [73][80]. - Ternary Material Production Schedule: In March, the production of ternary materials is expected to increase overall. Although the seasonal impact is gradually digested, the weakening of the terminal and the structural squeeze of lithium iron phosphate still have an impact, and the increase in the production schedule of ternary materials is less than that of lithium iron phosphate. Structurally, it is expected that the production schedules of medium - and high - nickel materials and NCA will be significantly revised upwards, while the production of low - nickel materials accounts for a small and stable proportion. According to SMM data, the production of ternary materials in March is expected to be 84,360 tons, an increase of 13,640 tons month - on - month. Among them, the production of 3 - series materials is expected to remain at 30 tons, the production of medium - and low - nickel ternary (5/6 - series) materials is expected to be 10,220 tons and 40,180 tons respectively, with a larger increase in the production of medium - nickel materials; the production schedules of high - nickel ternary (8/9 - series) materials are expected to be 20,320 tons and 12,079 tons respectively, also showing a month - on - month increase; the production of NCA is expected to be 1,390 tons, with a relatively large month - on - month increase [81][85]. - Waste Recycling: After the overall increase in the lithium carbonate price center, the recycling end increased rapidly under high profits. In February, the recycling volume decreased overall due to the holiday. Structurally, there were slight differences between different materials, with a larger decrease in ternary material recycling and a slower decrease in lithium iron phosphate and cobalt - acid lithium. According to SMM, the total monthly recycling volume of domestic waste lithium batteries in February was 27,708 tons, a 26% decrease month - on - month but a 36.7% increase year - on - year. Among them, the monthly recycling volume of ternary waste materials was 10,720 tons, a decrease of 5,059 tons from the previous month; the total recycling volume of lithium iron phosphate waste materials was 14,026 tons, a decrease of 3,446 tons from the previous month; the total recycling volume of cobalt - acid lithium waste materials was 2,962 tons, a decrease of 1,196 tons from the previous month [86][88]. - New Energy Vehicle Market: In 2026, the new energy vehicle subsidy policy was adjusted from a fixed - amount subsidy to a proportional subsidy, resulting in a decrease in subsidies for mid - and low - end models and a weakening of the purchase tax preference policy. The impact of seasonality and the pre - consumption due to policy withdrawal gradually emerged, and the new energy vehicle market has cooled down significantly since the beginning of the year. However, the power - carrying capacity per vehicle has increased significantly, and the market growth structure has also changed, gradually shifting to the joint drive of the steady growth of passenger vehicles and the explosion of commercial vehicles. According to the Passenger Car Association, in February, the retail sales of the new energy passenger vehicle market were 464,000 units, a 32.0% year - on - year decrease; from January to February, the retail sales of the new energy passenger vehicle market were 1.06 million units, a 25.7% year - on - year decrease; the retail penetration rate in February was 44.9%, a 4% year - on - year decrease. In February, the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 723,000 units, a 13.1% year - on - year decrease; from January to February, the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 1.589 million units, a 7.9% year - on - year decrease; the manufacturer's wholesale penetration rate in February was 47.6%, a 1% year - on - year increase [89]. - Power Battery Market: In February, the production, sales, and installation data of batteries met expectations. Affected by seasonality, the data continued to weaken month - on - month, but the production increased year - on - year. Lithium iron phosphate batteries still dominated the market share. On a monthly basis, the demand for ternary batteries in high - end new energy vehicles was relatively stable, while the demand in the economy - class electric vehicle market weakened more significantly, and the demand for lithium iron phosphate batteries also contracted. According to the data of the Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, in February, the total production of power and energy - storage batteries in China was 141.6 GWh, a 15.7% decrease month - on - month but a 41.3% increase year - on - year. The domestic power battery installation volume was 26.3 GWh, a 37.4% decrease month - on - month and a 24.6% decrease year - on - year. Among them, the installation volume of ternary batteries was 5.7 GWh, accounting for 21.7% of the total installation volume, a 39.1% decrease month - on - month and an 11.4% decrease year - on - year; the installation volume of lithium iron phosphate batteries was 20.6 GWh, accounting for 78.3% of the total installation volume, a 36.9% decrease month - on - month and a 27.5% decrease year - on - year [94][99]. - Energy - Storage Market: The production and sales of energy - storage batteries decreased seasonally, and the inventory - to - sales ratio remained at a low level. In February, the production and sales data of energy - storage batteries decreased month - on - month, and the inventory - to - sales ratio remained low [100].