镍不锈钢产业周报：地缘扰动持续，原料端矛盾累积，供需逐步恢复-20260320

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For nickel, the macro - risk increases, the market is intertwined with long and short positions, and the disk is in a volatile adjustment. The raw material end has accumulated contradictions, and the fundamentals are intertwined with long and short factors. It is expected that the disk will mainly fluctuate within a range, with the main contract referring to the range of 134,000 - 145,000 [3]. - For stainless steel, the raw material is in short supply, the cost support is strengthening, and the fundamentals of supply and demand are gradually recovering. In the short - term, it is expected to be in a volatile adjustment, with the main contract referring to the range of 14,000 - 14,500 [4]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Nickel Supply - In February 2026, affected by holidays, the production data of refined nickel in China weakened. The output was 32,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.45% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.65%. In March, the estimated output is 39,430 tons, a month - on - month increase of 20.95% and a year - on - year increase of 7.54% [3]. Demand - The demand side shows no obvious improvement. Downstream maintains a rigid procurement rhythm, and the spot trading is generally light. The overall demand of the electroplating downstream is relatively stable, with little room for growth in the future. Alloy demand still accounts for the majority, and the alloy demand in military and shipping industries is good. In March, stainless steel plants resumed production, but the current profit of steel plants is low, and large - scale procurement has not started after the holiday. The high price of MHP supports the cost of nickel sulfate, but the demand is flat, and the price of nickel sulfate fluctuates mainly [3]. Inventory - Overseas inventory remains at a relatively high level, domestic inventory continues to accumulate, and the bonded area inventory remains stable. As of March 13, the LME nickel inventory was 285,684 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,866 tons; the SMM domestic six - region social inventory was 87,490 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2,953 tons; the bonded area inventory was 2,200 tons, with no change week - on - week [3]. Cost - Due to the tightening of raw materials, the external procurement cost has increased slightly, and the cost of high - grade nickel matte in Indonesia's integrated process has increased. On March 13, the cost of producing electrowon nickel from externally purchased nickel sulfate was 153,900 yuan/ton, from externally purchased MHP was 146,400 yuan/ton, and from externally purchased high - grade nickel matte was 143,100 yuan/ton. The cost of producing electrowon nickel from Indonesia's integrated MHP was 113,300 yuan/ton, and the production cost of high - grade nickel matte in Indonesia's integrated process was 141,700 yuan/ton [3]. Basis - The mainstream premium and discount quotation of SHFE nickel 2604 is 6,500 - 7,600 yuan/ton, and the latest quotation has decreased by 150 yuan/ton compared with last week; the real - time converted premium and discount range of Jinchuan nickel's ex - factory price in Shanghai area to the SHFE disk is 2,870 - 7,320 yuan/ton, and the latest quotation has decreased by 400 yuan/ton compared with last week. The mainstream premium and discount quotation of Russian nickel to SHFE nickel 2604 is - 200 - - 150 yuan/ton, and the latest quotation remains the same as last week [3]. Stainless Steel Raw Materials - The supply shortage of nickel ore in Indonesia has further intensified. During the Ramadan, the supply release rhythm has slowed down, the premium of domestic trade ore remains strong, and the price of wet - process ore continues to rise. The premium on the main island is 30 - 32 US dollars/wet ton, and that on the outer island has risen to 35 - 37 US dollars/wet ton. The tender price of Philippine mines continues to rise. The tender price of 1.3% grade in Benguet this week is 54 US dollars/ton (FOB), a further increase of 2 US dollars compared with last week. The price center of the high - grade nickel pig iron market has steadily moved up, and some scattered orders have been traded in the market [4]. Supply - According to Mysteel statistics, in February 2026, the crude steel output of 43 domestic stainless steel plants was 2.695 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 841,400 tons, a decrease of 23.79%, and a year - on - year decrease of 14.32%. The output of 300 - series was 1.3194 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 538,700 tons, a decrease of 28.99%, and a year - on - year decrease of 20.24%. In March, the estimated crude steel production of stainless steel is 3.6795 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 984,500 tons, an increase of 36.53%, and a year - on - year increase of 4.77%. Among them, the output of 300 - series is 1.9008 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 581,400 tons, an increase of 44.07%, and a year - on - year decrease of 0.05%. Steel plants have completed most of their maintenance during the Spring Festival, and the overall production schedule in March has increased [4]. Inventory - The social inventory is steadily being digested, the warehouse receipts remain stable, and the inventory pressure has marginally improved. As of March 12, the social inventory of 300 - series in Wuxi and Foshan was 532,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6,400 tons. On March 13, the stainless steel futures inventory on the SHFE was 51,240 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 713 tons [4]. Basis and Cost - As of March 13, the spot price of Wuxi Hongwang 304/2B 2.0 is 14,450 yuan/ton, remaining the same week - on - week; the basis is 430 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 15 yuan/ton. Recently, the cost center has increased. The cold - rolling cash cost of high - grade nickel pig iron is 14,640.04 yuan/ton, and the production cost of cold - rolled products from scrap stainless steel is 14,364.47 yuan/ton [4].