大越期货沥青期货早报-20260320

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply side: In March 2026, the total domestic asphalt production was 2187,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 251,000 tons (13.0%) and a year - on - year decrease of 43,000 tons (1.9%). The sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt this week was 24.5686%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.48 percentage points. The refineries reduced production this week, but supply pressure may increase next week [7]. - Demand side: The current demand is lower than the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 was 23%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.01 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工率 was 6.6%, unchanged month - on - month; the modified asphalt开工率 was 0.7302%, a month - on - month increase of 0.59 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工率 was 9%, a month - on - month increase of 1.00 percentage point; the waterproofing membrane开工率 was 33%, a month - on - month increase of 3.00 percentage points [7]. - Cost side: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 539.7 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 32.10%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 308.9886 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 83.40%. The asphalt processing loss increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. The strengthening of crude oil is expected to support the price in the short term [7]. - Basis: On March 19, the spot price in Shandong was 4200 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 06 contract was - 425 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is bearish [7]. - Inventory: The social inventory was 1,179,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.61%; the in - plant inventory was 786,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.25%; the port diluted asphalt inventory was 800,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.88%. Social inventory continued to accumulate, in - plant inventory continued to deplete, and port inventory continued to deplete, which is bullish [7]. - Disk: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 06 contract closed above MA20, which is bullish [7]. - Main positions: The main positions are net long, and the long positions increased, which is bullish [7]. - Expectation: Refineries have recently reduced production, reducing supply pressure. Affected by the off - season, demand is weak and overall demand is lower than expected. Inventory continues to deplete. Crude oil is strengthening, and cost support is strengthening in the short term. It is expected that the disk will fluctuate in a narrow range in the short term, and asphalt 2606 will fluctuate in the range of 4534 - 4716 [7]. - Bullish factors: The relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support [10]. - Bearish factors: There is insufficient demand for high - priced goods, and overall demand is declining. The expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States is strengthening [11]. - Main logic: On the supply side, supply pressure remains high; on the demand side, the recovery is weak [12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Supply, demand, cost, basis, inventory, disk, main positions, and expectations are comprehensively analyzed. The overall fundamental situation is bullish, and it is expected that the asphalt 2606 contract will fluctuate in the range of 4534 - 4716 in the short term [7]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - Futures closing prices of various contracts showed different degrees of increase, with the 06 contract rising by 5.11%. The basis of most contracts increased, and the registered warehouse receipts decreased by 13.23%. The prices of some monthly spreads also changed [14]. - Weekly inventory: Social inventory increased by 2.61%, in - plant inventory decreased by 0.25%, and port diluted asphalt inventory decreased by 5.88%. Weekly开工率, output, shipment volume, and profit data also showed corresponding changes [16]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report provides the historical basis trends of Shandong and East China asphalt from 2020 to 2026, which helps to analyze the relationship between spot and futures prices [19][21]. 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - Main contract spread: The report shows the historical spread trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts from 2020 to 2023, which is helpful for spread trading analysis [24]. - Asphalt - crude oil price trend: The report presents the price trends of asphalt, Brent oil, and West Texas oil from 2020 to 2026, which helps to analyze the relationship between asphalt and crude oil prices [27]. - Crude oil cracking spread: The report shows the historical cracking spreads of asphalt and different types of crude oil (SC, WTI, Brent) from 2020 to 2026, which is helpful for analyzing the profitability of asphalt production [30][31]. - Asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil price ratio trend: The report provides the historical price ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 to 2026, which helps to analyze the relative price relationships among different products [34]. 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Various Regions - The report shows the historical price trends of heavy - traffic asphalt in East China and Shandong from 2020 to 2026, which helps to understand the price changes in the spot market [37]. 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit analysis: - Asphalt profit: The report shows the historical asphalt profit trends from 2019 to 2026, which helps to analyze the profitability of asphalt production [39]. - Coking - asphalt profit spread trend: The report presents the historical profit spread trends between coking and asphalt from 2020 to 2026, which is helpful for analyzing the relative profitability of different production processes [43]. - Supply side: - Shipment volume: The report shows the weekly shipment volume trends of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 to 2026, which helps to analyze the supply situation [46]. - Diluted asphalt port inventory: The report presents the historical inventory trends of domestic diluted asphalt ports from 2021 to 2026, which helps to understand the supply of raw materials [49]. - Output: The report shows the weekly and monthly output trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2026, which helps to analyze the overall supply situation [52]. - Venezuelan crude oil price and monthly output trend: The report presents the historical price trends of Venezuelan crude oil and its monthly output from 2018 to 2026, which helps to analyze the impact of raw material supply on asphalt production [57]. - Local refinery asphalt output: The report shows the historical output trends of local refinery asphalt from 2019 to 2026, which helps to analyze the supply structure [59]. -开工率: The report presents the weekly开工率 trends of asphalt from 2023 to 2026, which helps to analyze the production activity [62]. - Maintenance loss volume estimate: The report shows the historical maintenance loss volume estimate trends from 2018 to 2026, which helps to analyze the impact of maintenance on supply [65]. - Inventory: - Exchange warehouse receipts: The report shows the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and in - plant inventory) from 2019 to 2026, which helps to analyze the inventory situation [68][69]. - Social inventory and in - plant inventory: The report presents the historical trends of social inventory (70 samples) and in - plant inventory (54 samples) from 2022 to 2026, which helps to understand the inventory structure [72]. - In - plant inventory inventory ratio: The report shows the historical in - plant inventory inventory ratio trends from 2018 to 2026, which helps to analyze the inventory management situation [76]. - Import and export situation: - Asphalt export and import trends: The report presents the historical export and import trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025, which helps to analyze the international trade situation [79]. - South Korean asphalt import price difference trend: The report shows the historical price difference trends of South Korean asphalt imports from 2020 to 2026, which helps to analyze the cost advantage of imports [82]. - Demand side: - Petroleum coke output: The report shows the historical output trends of petroleum coke from 2019 to 2026, which helps to analyze the demand for related products [85]. - Apparent consumption: The report presents the historical apparent consumption trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025, which helps to understand the overall demand situation [88]. - Downstream demand: - Highway construction transportation fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion amount year - on - year are used to analyze the downstream demand situation [91][92]. - Downstream machinery demand: The report shows the historical sales volume trends of asphalt concrete pavers, domestic excavators, and road rollers from 2019 to 2026, as well as the monthly working hours of excavators, which helps to analyze the demand for construction machinery [96][98]. - Asphalt开工率: The report presents the historical开工率 trends of heavy - traffic asphalt, asphalt by use, and downstream开工率 from 2019 to 2026, which helps to analyze the demand for asphalt in different fields [100][102][105]. - Supply - demand balance sheet: The report shows the monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt from 2024 to 2026, including monthly output, import volume, export volume, downstream demand, social inventory, in - plant inventory, and diluted asphalt port inventory, which helps to comprehensively analyze the supply - demand situation [110].