Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal M2605 is expected to fluctuate within the range of 3030 - 3090. It is currently in a short - term, slightly bullish oscillating pattern, influenced by the rise of US soybeans and short - term restrictions on imported soybeans due to the intensification of the Middle East conflict. However, factors such as the completion of China's soybean purchases from the US and good weather in South American soybean - producing areas may limit its upward space [9]. - The soybean A2605 is expected to fluctuate within the range of 4740 - 4840. It will maintain a high - level oscillation in the short term. Although the support from China's continuous purchase of US soybeans and the reduction in expected imports of soybeans due to the escalation of the Middle East conflict support the price, factors like the uncertainty of China's purchase volume and the good weather in South American soybean - producing areas may suppress the upward movement [11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Tips No relevant content provided. 2. Recent News - The preliminary agreement on Sino - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans, but the amount of China's soybean purchases from the US and the weather of US soybeans are still uncertain. The US soybean market will be in a short - term, slightly bullish oscillation, waiting for further guidance on South American soybean harvest, imported soybean arrivals, and the follow - up of Sino - US trade negotiations [13]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China will continue to decline in the first quarter. The soybean inventory of oil mills remained at a relatively high level in March. With normal weather for soybean planting and growth in South America, soybean meal will return to range - bound oscillation in the short term [13]. - The decrease in domestic pig - farming profits leads to a low expectation of pig restocking. The demand for soybean meal will remain low in March, suppressing the price expectation of soybean meal. The influence of US soybeans and the weak demand for soybean meal will have a cross - impact [13]. - The soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills remains at a relatively high level. Due to the possible speculation on the weather in South American soybean - producing areas and the impact of the preliminary agreement on Sino - US trade negotiations, soybean meal will be in a short - term, slightly bullish oscillation, waiting for further clarity on the Middle East situation, confirmation of South American soybean production, and further guidance on the follow - up of Sino - US trade negotiations [13]. 3. Long and Short Concerns Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: The preliminary agreement on Sino - US trade negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans; the soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills has no pressure; there are still uncertainties in the weather of South American soybean - producing areas [14]. - Bearish factors: The total arrival volume of imported soybeans in China will remain at a relatively high level in March; with normal weather, South American soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest as the Brazilian soybean harvest progresses [14]. - Main logic: The market focuses on the impact of South American soybean harvest weather and the follow - up of the preliminary Sino - US trade agreement [14]. Soybeans - Bullish factors: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market; the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports the price expectation of domestic soybeans [15]. - Bearish factors: Brazil's soybean harvest is bumper, and China has increased its purchases of Brazilian soybeans; the expected increase in the production of new domestic soybeans suppresses the price expectation of beans [15]. - Main logic: The market focuses on the impact of US soybean weather and the Sino - US trade tariff game [15]. 4. Fundamental Data - Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Transaction Data: From March 11th to March 19th, the transaction prices and volumes of soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated. The average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal also showed certain fluctuations [16]. - Soybean and Meal Futures and Spot Prices: From March 12th to March 19th, the futures and spot prices of soybeans and soybean meal fluctuated. The spot price of soybean meal was relatively strong, and the spot premium remained at a relatively high level [18][23]. - Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipt Statistics: From March 10th to March 19th, the warehouse receipts of soybeans and soybean meal changed. The warehouse receipts of soybean No. 1 and soybean No. 2 decreased to varying degrees, and the warehouse receipts of soybean meal also decreased [20]. - Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets: The global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets from 2016 to 2025 show the changes in harvest area, output, consumption, and inventory of soybeans in different periods [32][33]. - Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress in Different Regions: The report provides the planting and harvest progress of soybeans in Argentina, the US, and Brazil from 2023 to 2026, including data on planting rate, harvest rate, emergence rate, and excellent - good rate [34][35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43]. - USDA's Monthly Supply - Demand Reports in the Past Six Months: The USDA's monthly supply - demand reports from July 2025 to February 2026 show the changes in US soybean planting area, yield, output, ending inventory, exports, and crushing volume, as well as the production of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans [44]. 5. Position Data No relevant content provided. 6. Soybean Meal and Soybean Views and Strategies Soybean Meal - Range: 3030 - 3090 [9]. - Analysis of influencing factors: The US soybeans are oscillating and rising. The situation in the Middle East continues to cause inflation expectations and technical oscillating consolidation. The short - term trend is slightly bullish, waiting for further guidance on the implementation of the Sino - US trade agreement and the harvest weather in South American soybean - producing areas. The domestic soybean meal first rose and then fell. Influenced by the trend of US soybeans and the short - term restriction of imported soybeans due to the intensification of the Middle East conflict, it has entered a short - term, slightly bullish oscillating pattern. The basis is positive, the inventory has decreased, the price is above the 20 - day moving average, but the main short positions have increased and the funds have flowed out [9]. Soybeans - Range: 4740 - 4840 [11]. - Analysis of influencing factors: The US soybeans are oscillating and rising. The situation in the Middle East continues to cause inflation expectations and technical oscillating consolidation. The short - term trend is slightly bullish, waiting for further guidance on the implementation of the Sino - US trade agreement and the harvest weather in South American soybean - producing areas. The domestic soybeans are oscillating and falling. The expected decrease in the arrival of imported soybeans due to the escalation of the Middle East conflict and the short - term good demand support the market. However, there is still uncertainty in the follow - up Sino - US trade negotiations, and it will maintain a high - level oscillation in the short term. The basis is positive, the inventory has decreased, the price is above the 20 - day moving average, but the main short positions have decreased and the funds have flowed out [11]. Other Market Conditions - The weekly export inspection of US soybeans decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year [45]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans increased from a low level and increased year - on - year [47]. - The soybean inventory of oil mills increased, and the soybean meal inventory increased slightly at a high level [50]. - The soybean crushing volume of oil mills increased from a low level, and the soybean meal output in February decreased slightly year - on - year [52]. - The unexecuted contracts of oil mills increased from a low level, and the short - term stocking demand increased [54]. - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans oscillated and fell following the US soybeans, and the margin on the futures market fluctuated slightly [56]. - The pig inventory increased slightly year - on - year, the sow inventory decreased year - on - year and decreased slightly month - on - month [58]. - The pig price continued to fall recently, and the average slaughter weight decreased slightly [60]. - The proportion of large pigs in China decreased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs fluctuated slightly [62]. - The loss of domestic pig - farming profits expanded [64]. - The pig - grain ratio and feed - meat ratio fell to a low level [66].
大越期货豆粕早报-20260320
Da Yue Qi Huo·2026-03-20 03:26