工业硅期货早报-20260320

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week, the industrial silicon supply was 78,000 tons, a 8.33% week-on-week increase. The supply schedule is increasing but is still at a low level [6]. - Demand: Last week, the demand was 68,000 tons, a 4.62% week-on-week increase. The recovery of demand is emerging [6]. - Cost: The production cost of sample oxygenated 553 in Xinjiang is 9,769.7 yuan/ton, remaining flat week-on-week. The cost support has increased during the dry season [6]. - Outlook: Industrial Silicon 2605 is expected to fluctuate between 8,200 - 8,370 yuan/ton [6]. Polysilicon - Supply: Last week, the polysilicon production was 19,000 tons, a 1.06% week-on-week increase. The production schedule for March is predicted to be 84,900 tons, a 10.25% increase compared to the previous month [8]. - Demand: The overall demand shows recovery, but may lack strength later. The production of silicon wafers continues to increase, the production of solar cells increases in the short term and is expected to correct in the medium term, and the production of components increases in the short term and is expected to correct in the medium term [9][10]. - Cost: The average industry cost of N-type polysilicon is 40,720 yuan/ton, with a production profit of 1,280 yuan/ton [9]. - Outlook: Polysilicon 2605 is expected to fluctuate between 37,615 - 39,485 yuan/ton [10]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Viewpoints Industrial Silicon - Fundamental: Neutral [6] - Basis: On March 19th, the spot price of non-oxygenated silicon in East China was 9,100 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 815 yuan/ton. The spot price is higher than the futures price, which is bullish [6]. - Inventory: The social inventory is 552,000 tons, a 0.18% week-on-week decrease; the sample enterprise inventory is 197,100 tons, a 0.61% week-on-week increase; the main port inventory is 134,000 tons, a 0.74% week-on-week decrease. This is bearish [6]. - Chart: MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed below MA20. This is bearish [6]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing. This is bearish [6]. Polysilicon - Fundamental: Bullish [9] - Basis: On March 19th, the price of N-type dense material was 42,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 5,200 yuan/ton. The spot price is higher than the futures price, which is bullish [11]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory is 357,000 tons, a 2.58% week-on-week increase, and it is at a historically high level. This is bearish [11]. - Chart: MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed below MA20. This is bearish [11]. - Main Position: The main position is net long, and the long position is increasing. This is bullish [11]. Market Overview Industrial Silicon - Futures closing prices of multiple contracts showed different degrees of decline, and some spot prices also decreased [16]. - The weekly social inventory decreased by 0.18%, the sample enterprise inventory increased by 0.61%, and the main port inventory decreased by 0.74% [16]. Polysilicon - Futures closing prices of multiple contracts showed different degrees of decline, and the prices of some silicon wafers and solar cells also changed [17]. - The weekly silicon wafer inventory decreased by 22.06%, and the photovoltaic cell export volume increased by 24.25% [17]. Downstream Industry Analysis Organic Silicon - The DMC daily capacity utilization rate remained flat at 65.4%, and the monthly DMC inventory increased by 23.94% [15][45]. - The prices of products such as 107 rubber, raw rubber, silicone oil, and D4 remained stable [47][48][49]. Aluminum Alloy - The monthly production of primary and secondary aluminum alloy ingots decreased, and the weekly aluminum alloy ingot social inventory decreased by 7.20% [16][58]. - The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained stable, and the import profit decreased [16][55]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon industry cost remained stable, and the price of N-type polysilicon decreased by 3.85% [17][64]. - The total polysilicon inventory increased by 2.59% week-on-week, and the monthly production and demand showed different trends [17][64].