大越期货原油早报-20260320

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The report analyzes the fundamentals, basis, inventory, market trends, and positions of crude oil. It indicates that due to the easing statements from various parties, negative factors have been released, but if the "blockade" of the Strait persists until the end of the month, crude oil prices may still rise. It suggests an operating range of 750 - 770 for SC2605 and waiting for opportunities to short at high prices in the long - term [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - Fundamentals: Trump warned Israel not to attack Iran's gas infrastructure. The US Treasury Secretary said the US would not attack Iran's energy infrastructure, may lift sanctions on Iranian oil, and release strategic reserves to suppress oil prices. The situation is neutral [3]. - Basis: On March 19, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $166.95 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude oil was $107.51 per barrel. The basis was 25.72 yuan per barrel, with the spot price higher than the futures price, which is bullish [3]. - Inventory: US API crude oil inventory for the week ending March 13 increased by 6.556 million barrels (expected increase of 73,000 barrels), EIA inventory increased by 6.156 million barrels (expected increase of 383,000 barrels), and Cushing area inventory increased by 944,000 barrels. Shanghai crude oil futures inventory as of March 18 was 3.511 million barrels, unchanged. This is bearish [3]. - Market Trends: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the price is above the average, which is bullish [3]. - Positions: As of March 10, the long positions of WTI and Brent crude oil increased, which is bullish [3]. - Expectation: Trump asked Israel to stop attacking Iranian energy facilities, and the US plans to release strategic reserves and lift sanctions on Iranian and Russian oil to increase supply and stabilize oil prices. Crude oil prices dropped significantly in the second half of the night, but if the Strait remains "blocked" until the end of the month, prices may rise. It is recommended to operate in the range of 750 - 770 for SC2605 and wait for opportunities to short at high prices in the long - term [3]. 3.2 Recent News - The US may lift sanctions on about 130 - 140 million barrels of Iranian "floating oil" in the next few days. The US will use Iranian oil to lower prices and will not conduct financial intervention in the futures market but increase physical supply [5]. - The IEA announced that Japan, Canada, and South Korea will be the main contributors to the large - scale emergency oil reserve release. A total of 426 million barrels of oil are being released into the market, with 172 million barrels from the US [5]. - After an attack by Iran, Saudi Aramco briefly suspended crude oil loading at the Yanbu port in the Red Sea on Thursday, and the port has since resumed operations [5]. 3.3 Long - Short Concerns - Bullish Factors: Difficulty in Strait passage and deterioration of the Middle East situation [6]. - Bearish Factors: Trump's intention to end the war quickly and the release of strategic reserves by IEA member countries [6]. - Market Driver: Pay attention to geopolitical changes in the short - term, and wait for the situation to ease before entering the market for reversal trading in the long - term [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Futures Market: Brent crude oil settlement price increased from $102.92 to $103.78 (up 0.84%), WTI crude oil from $95.46 to $95.55 (up 0.09%), SC crude oil from 751.2 to 803.4 (up 6.95%), and Oman crude oil from $153.12 to $166.96 (up 9.04%) [7]. - Spot Market: The price of UK Brent Dtd increased from $112.85 to $117.49 (up 4.11%), WTI decreased from $96.32 to $96.14 (down 0.19%), Oman crude oil increased from $156.02 to $166.95 (up 7.01%), Shengli crude oil increased from $100.92 to $110.63 (up 9.62%), and Dubai crude oil increased from $155.69 to $166.97 (up 7.25%) [9]. - Inventory Data: API inventory as of March 13 was 472.774 million barrels, an increase of 6.556 million barrels; EIA inventory as of March 13 was 449.259 million barrels, an increase of 6.156 million barrels [3][11][13]. 3.5 Position Data - WTI Crude Oil: As of March 10, the net long position was 228,015, an increase of 55,865 [17]. - Brent Crude Oil: As of March 10, the net long position was 351,032, an increase of 65,438 [19].