原油成品油早报-20260320

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the impact of the US - Iran situation on the global crude oil market supply has escalated. The VLCC still cannot pass through the Strait of Hormuz, and about 10 million barrels per day of Middle - Eastern production has been shut down. The IEA announced the largest - ever emergency oil reserve release, but it cannot fundamentally solve the problem of upstream production interruption. The core lies in the duration of the Strait blockade. The crude oil forward curve currently prices in an interruption disturbance of about 30 days, but the disturbance is expected to last longer. Next week, the international crude oil market still faces upward price risks [6] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily News - The US Treasury issued a new general license related to Russian oil, allowing the delivery and sale of Russian - origin crude oil and petroleum products loaded on ships before March 12 until April 11, 2026, excluding transactions involving North Korea, Cuba and Crimea. This is part of the Trump administration's attempt to stabilize energy prices [3] - The IEA announced that Japan, Canada and South Korea will be the main contributors to the large - scale emergency oil reserve release due to the Iran war. Member states have contributed 426 million barrels of oil, with 172 million barrels from the US [4] - The Israeli military chief of staff said that Israel's military operation against Iran "is not even halfway through", and there is no end - time schedule [4] - The US will not implement a crude oil export ban [4] - The US Treasury Secretary said the US may use Iranian oil to lower prices, and may lift sanctions on Iranian oil at sea in the coming days and may release strategic oil reserves again [5] - Saudi Arabia's Yanbu port has resumed oil - loading operations [5] - Iranian MPs are considering a bill to levy tolls and taxes on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz [5] 2. Weekly Inventory - In the week of March 13, US crude oil exports increased by 1.464 million barrels per day to 4.898 million barrels per day. Domestic crude oil production decreased by 100,000 barrels to 13.668 million barrels per day. Commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 6.156 million barrels to 449 million barrels, a 1.39% increase. The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 21.041 million barrels per day, a 2.14% increase year - on - year. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory remained at 415.4 million barrels. Commercial crude oil imports (excluding strategic reserves) were 7.194 million barrels per day, an increase of 772,000 barrels per day from the previous week. EIA gasoline inventory decreased by 5.436 million barrels, and EIA refined oil inventory decreased by 2.527 million barrels [5] 3. Price Data - From March 13 - 19, WTI prices fluctuated, with a final decrease of 0.18; BRENT prices rose by 1.27; DUBAI prices rose by 1.40. Other related products also showed corresponding price changes [3]