碳酸锂期货早报-20260320

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The provided text does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The supply of lithium carbonate increased last week, with a production of 23,426 tons, a 3.70% week - on - week increase, and higher than the historical average. The inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials also increased. In February 2026, the production of lithium carbonate was 83,090 physical tons, and the predicted production for the next month is 106,390 physical tons, a 28.04% month - on - month increase. The import volume in February was 21,800 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for the next month is 26,000 physical tons, a 19.27% month - on - month increase. The demand is expected to strengthen next month, and inventory may be depleted. The cost of 6% concentrate CIF decreased daily, and the demand - dominated situation weakened. The lithium carbonate 2605 is expected to oscillate in the range of 136,800 - 147,680. The cost of purchasing spodumene concentrate is 154,180 yuan/ton, with no daily change, resulting in a loss of 250 yuan/ton; the cost of purchasing lithium mica is 145,659 yuan/ton, also with no daily change, resulting in a profit of 6,289 yuan/ton. The production cost of the recycling end is generally higher than that of the ore end, and the production profit is negative, with low production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end is 32,231 yuan/ton, significantly lower than the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation. [8][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - Supply and Demand: Last week, the production of lithium carbonate was 23,426 tons, a 3.70% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. The inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate was 105,780 tons, a 5.22% week - on - week increase, and the inventory of sample enterprises of ternary materials was 18,019 tons, a 1.17% week - on - week increase. In February 2026, the production of lithium carbonate was 83,090 physical tons, and the predicted production for the next month is 106,390 physical tons, a 28.04% month - on - month increase. The import volume in February was 21,800 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for the next month is 26,000 physical tons, a 19.27% month - on - month increase. The demand is expected to strengthen next month, and inventory may be depleted. [8][9] - Cost: The cost of 6% concentrate CIF decreased daily, lower than the historical average. The cost of purchasing spodumene concentrate is 154,180 yuan/ton, with no daily change, resulting in a loss of 250 yuan/ton; the cost of purchasing lithium mica is 145,659 yuan/ton, also with no daily change, resulting in a profit of 6,289 yuan/ton. The production cost of the recycling end is generally higher than that of the ore end, and the production profit is negative, with low production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end is 32,231 yuan/ton, significantly lower than the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation. [9] - Fundamentals: Bullish. On March 19, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 152,500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 9,900 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures. The smelter inventory was 16,292 tons, a 6.77% week - on - week decrease, lower than the historical average; the downstream inventory was 45,647 tons, a 4.32% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average; other inventories were 37,020 tons, a 2.93% week - on - week decrease, lower than the historical average; the total inventory was 98,959 tons, a 0.41% week - on - week decrease, lower than the historical average. [9] - Disk: Bearish. The MA20 of the disk is downward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed below the MA20. The net short position of the main contract decreased. [9] - Likely Influencing Factors: Bullish factors include the production cut plan of lithium mica manufacturers and the month - on - month decrease in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile. Bearish factors include the continuous high supply at the ore/salt lake end with limited decline. The main logic is the emotional shock caused by news under the tight supply - demand balance. [10][11][12] 3.2 Market Overview of Lithium Carbonate - Price and Basis: The prices of various lithium - related products showed different degrees of change. For example, the price of spodumene (6%) decreased from 2,157 to 2,100 US dollars/ton, a 2.64% decrease; the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased from 155,500 to 152,500 yuan/ton, a 1.93% decrease. The registered warehouse receipts decreased from 35,769 to 34,740 lots, a 2.88% decrease. [15] - Supply and Demand Data: The supply - side data shows that the weekly operating rate was 73.46% with no change, and the monthly production of lithium carbonate decreased from 97,900 to 83,090 tons, a 15.13% decrease. The demand - side data shows that the monthly production of lithium iron phosphate decreased from 396,600 to 348,200 tons, a 12.20% decrease; the monthly export of lithium iron phosphate decreased from 7,720,595 to 4,028,745 kilograms, a 47.82% decrease. [18] 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - Price and Production: The price of lithium ore (6% CIF) and the production of lithium ore mines in China showed different trends over time. The production of Chinese sample spodumene mines and domestic lithium mica had their own changing patterns from 2023 - 2026. [25] - Import and Self - Sufficiency Rate: The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate showed fluctuations, and the self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore also changed over time. [25] - Supply - Demand Balance: The supply - demand balance of domestic lithium ore from February 2025 to February 2026 showed different situations, with some months in short supply and some in surplus. [28][29] 3.4 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - Operating Rate and Production: The weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate from different sources (lithium辉石, lithium mica, salt lake, recycling materials) and the monthly production of lithium carbonate (classified by grade and raw material) showed different trends over time. [32] - Import and Recycling: The monthly import volume of lithium carbonate from different countries and the recycling volume of waste lithium batteries also had their own changing patterns. [32][35] - Supply - Demand Balance: The supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate from February 2025 to February 2026 showed different situations, with some months in surplus and some in short supply. [38] 3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - Capacity Utilization and Production: The weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic lithium hydroxide and the monthly production of lithium hydroxide from different sources (causticization, smelting) showed different trends over time. [41] - Export and Supply - Demand Balance: The export volume of Chinese lithium hydroxide and the supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide from February 2025 to February 2026 showed different situations, with some months in surplus and some in short supply. [41][43] 3.6 Lithium Compound Cost and Profit - Cost and Profit of Different Raw Materials: The cost and profit of purchasing spodumene concentrate, lithium mica concentrate, and recycling different types of lithium - containing materials to produce lithium carbonate showed different trends over time. [46][48] - Processing Cost and Profit: The processing cost and profit of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, such as the processing cost of lithium mica concentrate and lithium辉石, and the profit of purifying industrial - grade lithium carbonate and carbonizing lithium hydroxide, also showed different trends. [46][48][51] 3.7 Inventory - Lithium Carbonate Inventory: The weekly and monthly inventory of lithium carbonate, including smelter inventory, downstream inventory, and other inventories, showed different trends over time. [53] - Lithium Hydroxide Inventory: The monthly inventory of lithium hydroxide, including downstream inventory and smelter inventory, also showed different trends over time. [53] 3.8 Demand - Lithium Battery - Power Battery - Price and Production: The price of batteries, the monthly production of power cells, the monthly loading volume of power batteries, the monthly shipment volume of power cells, and the export volume of lithium batteries showed different trends over time. [57] 3.9 Demand - Lithium Battery - Energy Storage - Inventory and Production: The inventory of lithium battery cells, the winning bid situation of energy storage, the operating rate of the energy storage battery industry, the monthly shipment volume of energy storage cells, and the monthly production volume of energy storage cells showed different trends over time. [59] 3.10 Demand - Ternary Precursor - Price and Cost: The price of ternary precursors, the cost and profit of producing ternary precursors, the processing fee of ternary precursors, the capacity utilization rate of ternary precursors, the capacity of ternary precursors, and the monthly production of ternary precursors showed different trends over time. [62] - Supply - Demand Balance: The supply - demand balance of ternary precursors from February 2025 to February 2026 showed different situations, with some months in surplus and some in short supply. [65] 3.11 Demand - Ternary Material - Price and Cost: The price of ternary materials, the cost and profit of producing ternary materials, the processing fee of ternary materials, the weekly operating rate of ternary materials, the capacity of ternary materials, the production of ternary materials, the export volume of ternary materials, the import volume of ternary materials, and the weekly inventory of ternary materials showed different trends over time. [68][70] 3.12 Demand - Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium - Price and Cost: The price of iron phosphate/iron phosphate lithium, the production cost of iron phosphate, the cost and profit of iron phosphate lithium, the capacity of iron phosphate/iron phosphate lithium, the monthly operating rate of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium, the monthly production of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium, the monthly export volume of iron phosphate lithium, and the weekly inventory of iron phosphate lithium showed different trends over time. [72][75][77] 3.13 Demand - New Energy Vehicle - Production, Sales, and Export: The production, sales, and export volume of new energy vehicles, the sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles, the retail - wholesale ratio of hybrid and pure - electric vehicles, the inventory warning index of dealers, and the inventory index of dealers showed different trends over time. [80][81][84]