广发期货日评-20260320

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Views - The overall market is affected by geopolitical conflicts, especially in the Middle East, leading to increased energy costs and inflationary pressures. Global central banks' monetary policies are difficult to loosen, and there is a risk of stagflation in overseas markets, which suppresses market sentiment. However, the domestic A - share market shows relative resilience and is likely to experience a differentiated market as the performance period approaches [3]. - The performance of different varieties varies. Some are affected by supply - demand relationships, cost factors, and geopolitical situations, showing trends such as weak or strong fluctuations, and investors need to adjust their strategies according to different situations [3]. 3. Summary by Categories Financial - Stock Index: The energy sector is rising against the trend, but overseas stagflation risks suppress market sentiment. The domestic A - share market is relatively resilient and is expected to show a differentiated market. The view is neutral with weak fluctuations, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [3]. - Precious Metals: Geopolitical conflicts increase inflationary pressures, and global central banks turn hawkish. Precious metals will generally remain in a weak - fluctuating state, seeking to build a bottom at the low level in early February. Gold put option buyers can continue to hold, and it is recommended to short - sell silver lightly above $75 - 80. Platinum follows gold and silver in a weak - fluctuating state, with resistance between $2000 - 2050, and palladium fluctuates weakly in the range of $1450 - 1500 [3]. Ferrous Metals - Steel: The steel price center moves up, and attention should be paid to the previous high pressure. For rebar and hot - rolled coils, pay attention to the pressure at 3150 yuan/ton and 3300 yuan/ton respectively [3]. - Iron Ore: Macroeconomic disturbances intensify, and the resumption of iron - making production accelerates. It fluctuates widely, with a reference range of 780 - 840 [3]. - Coking Coal: Some coal varieties are rising, and overseas energy commodities are surging. Affected by geopolitical risks, it is recommended to go long on coking coal 2605 on dips, with a reference range of 1100 - 1300 [3]. - Coke: Coke spot prices are temporarily stable, and cost increases raise the expectation of price hikes. The futures price fluctuates with coking coal. It is recommended to go long on coke 2605 on dips, with a reference range of 1650 - 1850 [3]. - Silicon Iron: Geopolitical conflicts continue, and both supply and demand of silicon iron increase. It fluctuates widely, with a reference range of 5700 - 6200 [3]. - Manganese Silicon: Market sentiment is changeable, and the cost of manganese silicon rises. It fluctuates widely, with a reference range of 5800 - 6400 [3]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: The conflict between the US and Iran escalates, and copper prices are under pressure to decline. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines, and pay attention to the pressure at 97000 - 98000 for the main contract [3]. - Aluminum Products: Speculative demand increases, and spot prices continue to rise. For the main contract, refer to the range of 2800 - 3100, and continue to hold short positions [3]. - Aluminum: There are both recession expectations and supply crises, and the differentiation between domestic and overseas aluminum markets intensifies. For the main contract, refer to the range of 23000 - 25000, and try to go long with a light position [3]. - Aluminum Alloy: The price of primary aluminum fluctuates and falls, and the alloy price is adjusted downward accordingly. The main contract is expected to run in the range of 22000 - 24000, and try to go long with a light position [3]. - Zinc: The path of interest rate cuts is not clear, and zinc prices are under pressure to decline. Stop - profit on short positions, and pay attention to the support at 22800 - 23000 for the main contract [3]. - Tin: The Middle - East situation remains stalemate, market risk sentiment decreases, and supply - side recovery leads to a continued decline in tin prices. It is in a short - term weak - fluctuating state, and the medium - to - long - term strategy is to go long on dips [3]. - Nickel: Macroeconomic sentiment is significantly adjusted, and the futures price weakens rapidly. Operate in the range of 130000 - 140000 for the main contract [3]. - Stainless Steel: Macroeconomic sentiment suppresses the futures price, and supply and demand are gradually recovering. It is in a weak - fluctuating adjustment state, and the main contract is expected to be in the range of 13800 - 14500 [3]. New Energy - Industrial Silicon: The spot price stabilizes, but the futures price drops significantly due to market sentiment. It is advisable to hold the previously sold options cautiously [3]. - Polysilicon: The spot price stabilizes, and the futures price drops significantly due to market sentiment. It fluctuates in the range of 40000 - 45000 [3]. - Lithium Carbonate: Macroeconomic factors dominate market sentiment, and the decline in the futures price widens. For the main contract, refer to the range of 146,000 - 158,000, and conduct short - term range operations [3]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: Iran launches a large - scale counter - attack in response to the attack on its oil and gas fields, and the US and Israeli presidents announce a suspension of attacks on Iranian energy facilities. Oil prices fluctuate widely. Hold long positions cautiously or stay on the sidelines [3]. - PX: The cost - side support is strong, but the downstream negative feedback drags down the trend. Long positions can be protected with put options, and pay attention to oil price trends [3]. - PTA: Similar to PX, the cost - side support is strong, but the downstream negative feedback drags down the trend. The single - side strategy is the same as that of PX [3]. - Short - Fiber: It has limited self - driving force and follows the raw material price fluctuations. The single - side strategy is the same as that of PX, and the processing fee on the PF futures fluctuates between 800 - 1100 [3]. - Bottle Chips: Due to the expected shortage of raw material supply, the supply - demand situation of bottle chips is expected to be tight. The single - side strategy is the same as that of PTA, and the processing fee on the PR main - contract futures runs strongly [3]. - Ethanol: Affected by the Middle - East conflict, the de - stocking amplitude of MEG in the near - term is expected to increase. Before the resumption of oil transportation in the Middle - East, EG still has the momentum to rise, but the market fluctuates greatly. Pay attention to the risk of a pull - back after the rise. Long positions can be protected with put options; temporarily observe the spread between EB04 and BZ04, and pay attention to opportunities to narrow the spread [3]. - Pure Benzene: The cost - side support is strong, but the high - level fluctuations increase. Temporarily observe and pay attention to opportunities to narrow the spread [3]. - Styrene: The price of raw material ethylene has increased significantly, and the profit of styrene is significantly compressed. The strategy is the same as that of pure benzene [3]. - LLDPE: It maintains a risk - free basis, and trading is light. Stay on the sidelines [3]. - PP: More upstream plants stop production or reduce production, and the futures price is strong. Take profit on the 5 - 9 positive spread [3]. - Methanol: Affected by the geopolitical situation, methanol is strong. Continue to hold the bottom - position long positions [3]. - Caustic Soda: The Middle - East situation escalates, and the caustic - soda price remains firm. Stay on the sidelines mainly, and be vigilant against a significant decline in the futures price if the Middle - East situation eases [3]. - PVC: Geopolitical disturbances bring export expectations, and the emotional fluctuations of PVC are magnified. Stay on the sidelines [3]. - Urea: With the release of commercial reserves and the measures to ensure supply and stabilize prices, urea may fluctuate and decline. Pay attention to the situation among the US, Israel, and Iran, and take profit on the previous long positions [3]. - Soda Ash: Supply reaches a new high and continues to increase, downstream demand is average, and multiple production lines are planned for maintenance. Stay on the sidelines [3]. - Glass: Downstream demand recovers slowly, and glass enterprises mainly digest inventory. Pay attention to changes in production lines and demand [3]. - Natural Rubber: The Middle - East situation remains stalemate, and rubber prices are weak. Stay on the sidelines mainly [3]. - Synthetic Rubber: Under the tense Middle - East situation, the fundamentals generally support the strength of BR. In the short term, it is recommended to go long on the spread between RU2605 and BR2605 on dips with a light position [3]. - Container Shipping on the European Route: Shipowners raise the fuel surcharge, and the offline price weakens. The futures price fluctuates widely. Hold the 6 - 10 positive spread [3]. Agricultural Products - Meal: US soybeans stop falling and rebound, and the tight spot supply - demand situation supports the domestic meal futures. It fluctuates in a range [3]. - Pigs: The pressure of pig slaughter is large, and attention should be paid to the intensity of supply reduction. It fluctuates weakly [3]. - Corn: The spot price is stable, and corn fluctuates [3]. - Vegetable Oils: Affected by repeated geopolitical disturbances, vegetable oils follow the rise of crude oil. It fluctuates and consolidates [3]. - Sugar: The raw - sugar price rises again, and the Zhengzhou sugar futures remain strong. Pay attention to the pressure around 5450 - 5500 [3]. - Cotton: Commodity prices weaken, and cotton prices continue to adjust. Reduce long positions [3]. - Eggs: The market supply is stable, and the sales speed is average. It fluctuates at a low level [3]. - Apples: The inventory reduction is smooth, and the futures price rises significantly. It fluctuates strongly [3]. - Jujubes: Consumption is hard to improve, and the futures price fluctuates weakly. Pay attention to the support around 8600 - 8700 [3].